The withdrawal of U.S. forces from Afghanistan and the return of the Taliban to power was a source of joy for the countries of the region because some countries in the region, such as China, Russia, and Iran, could not tolerate the heavy presence of America in their neighborhood in the long term. Although Russia and Iran cooperated with the United States in the suppression of the Taliban and Al-Qaeda after September 11 and the formation of the post-Bonn Conference structure in Afghanistan, it did not take long before this cooperation led to division. These two countries preferred establishing communication channels with the Taliban rather than cooperating with the United States.
Since the return of the Taliban to power, most of the meetings that have been held to address the current crisis in Afghanistan have been led by the countries of the region, particularly Iran, India, and Russia along with the countries of Central Asia. The countries of the region are more cautious about the current crisis in Afghanistan than the Western countries to find a solution to end this crisis. These countries are trying to provide a regional solution that is more efficient and open-ended than the Western solution to end the Afghanistan crisis, which is not necessarily in conflict with the Western solution. Compared to Western countries, these countries have the most engagement with the Taliban. The embassies of the countries of the region are open in Kabul and they have still received Taliban diplomats in their capitals, which has been avoided by the Western countries. The countries of the region have several times offered their demands to the Taliban, but the Taliban have not taken an effective step to meet these demands. However, these countries have preferred a soft and flexible confrontation with the Taliban over the policy of putting pressure on this group. In order to understand the secret of the Taliban avoiding meeting the demands of the regional countries, it is necessary to address the demands of these countries from the Taliban. In a general view, the demands of the countries of the region from the Taliban can be divided into three categories:
1- The Taliban Must Suppress the Terrorist Groups
The danger of Afghanistan becoming a safe haven for terrorist groups has greatly worried the countries of the region and, therefore, they are more concerned about the suppression of these groups than the establishment of an inclusive government in Afghanistan. Of course, from the point of view of the countries of the region, it is possible to succeed in suppressing terrorist groups in Afghanistan when a comprehensive and legitimate government is established in this country. In the regional meetings that have been held in the countries of the region for nearly two years, the need to suppress terrorist groups in Afghanistan has been at the center of their agenda. The most recent example was the presence of the defense ministers of the member countries of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) in New Delhi, who held a joint meeting, expressing their concern over the activities of terrorist groups in Afghanistan. The countries of the region think that NATO, led by the United States, deliberately withdrew from Afghanistan and left the area for emboldening terrorist groups to disturb the security of these countries. If the countries of the region have different views on the establishment of a comprehensive government, they align with each other regarding the need to suppress terrorist groups. From Pakistan, which is a friend of the Taliban, to India and Tajikistan, which are not friends of the Taliban, they all demand the suppression of terrorist groups by the Taliban. For example, Ahmad Massoud, the leader of the Afghanistan National Resistance Front (NRF), stated at the Vienna meeting, “Those who seek democracy and those who pursue their security goals do not have a plan for Afghanistan.” It can be concluded that Massoud is referring to the pro-democracy of Western countries and the pro-security of regional countries. From these statements, it can be understood that for the countries of the region, the establishment of democracy in Afghanistan is not very important compared to suppressing terrorist groups and ensuring border security.
Until now, the countries of the region have limited themselves to expressing concern about the presence of terrorist groups in Afghanistan and have not resorted to the policy of applying pressure. Therefore, they think that advice, encouragement, lenience, and highlighting the danger may get the Taliban to suppress terrorist groups- a solution that has not worked so far. It seems that the factor that can damage the relationship between the countries of the region and the Taliban in the future is the presence and influence of terrorist groups in Afghanistan. The Taliban have pledged to the countries of the region in connection with the suppression of terrorist groups and non-interference from the territory of Afghanistan, but they have not taken a step to implement these commitments to satisfy these countries.
For some time now, the relationship between the Taliban and Pakistan is not as warm and friendly as it used to be because the government of Pakistan thinks that the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan have a safe haven in the territory of Afghanistan and in this way, they launch terrorist activities in the territory of Pakistan. Similarly, despite the fact that China has preserved its warm relationship with the Taliban, one of its serious concerns is the East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM), which China believes is present in Afghanistan and the Taliban have not done anything to curb it. In the statement that was published by the Chinese Embassy in Kabul a while ago, part of its contents was focused on the suppression of the ETIM: “ETIM is a terrorist organization whose fighters in Afghanistan pose a serious threat to China’s security, and Beijing hopes that Afghanistan will fulfill its obligations and take more effective measures to suppress terrorists, including the ETIM.”
Likewise, Russia and Iran are worried about the danger of ISS-K infiltration and activity in the north and west of Afghanistan and view the Taliban as incapable of suppressing this group. The only delight of the countries in the region, especially Russia and Iran, is that the Taliban are enemies of ISS-K and will always be at war with this group, even though they are unable to suppress it. Regarding Russia, it can be said that this country has both the option of engaging with the Taliban and the option of warning and threatening. As far as it can be seen, Russia uses the first option more and the second option less. Russia’s military exercise with Tajikistan along the country’s borders with Afghanistan can indicate Russia’s choice of a warning option against the Taliban. Moreover, the spread of drug smuggling from the borders of Afghanistan to the outside is one of the important concerns of Iran and the countries of Central Asia. The killing of the commander of the Tajik border guards in a conflict with drug smugglers confirms the claims that drug smuggling from Afghanistan has increased outside the borders and that the Taliban’s actions in this regard have not been able to convince the countries of the region.
2- The Taliban Must Establish an Inclusive Government
Establishing an inclusive government in Afghanistan is still one of the important concerns of the countries in the region. The countries of the region want to establish a government in Afghanistan that does not include only the Taliban group in the power hierarchy, meaning that there should be a government where all political, ethnic, and religious forces can partake actively. For the countries of the region, the presence of the opposition forces of the Taliban in the future government of Afghanistan is important. Some countries in the region, including Russia, Iran, India, and Central Asian countries, cannot count on the Taliban in the long run; therefore, they attach importance to the presence of the opposition forces of the Taliban in the context of the future government because they think that excessive trust in the Taliban will cause the opposing forces of this group, especially the ethnic leaders, to completely fall into the arms of Western countries, which will be to the detriment of these countries in the long run. The regional countries somehow want to maintain the balance between the Taliban and the opposing forces of this group (especially Tajiks, Uzbeks, and Hazaras). For example, consider Iran, a country that emphasizes more than any other country the need to establish an inclusive government in Afghanistan. Since the presence of Shia ethnic and Tajiks in the power structure is important for Iran, it thinks that in the absence of these forces, it is not possible to maintain a warm engagement with the Taliban in the long term and achieve to achieve its goals.
It appears that the regional countries’ emphasis on the necessity of establishing an inclusive government in Afghanistan is not so uncomfortable and easy for the Taliban because on the one hand, they speak soft and diplomatic language, and on the other hand, the inclusive government they want to establish in Afghanistan is not very complicated in nature. These countries may not consider democracy, respect for human and women’s rights, freedom of the media, civil society, and political parties to be established in the ideal government, or the Taliban’s restriction to respect these values may not be serious to them as well. Therefore, the regional countries’ recommendation regarding the establishment of inclusive government is less abhorrent to the Taliban than the Western countries’ recommendations.
Moreover, the countries of the region chiefly try not to consider their emphasis on the establishment of inclusive governance in Afghanistan as an imposition of opinion or interference in the internal affairs of this country. China, as a great power in the region, can be a good example in this regard. It is apparent that if China is serious about pursuing the demands of the countries in the region, it can convince the Taliban to some extent; but it prefers to proceed with caution so that its insistence is not felt as imposing its opinion or interfering in Afghanistan’s internal affairs. For example, a part of the provisions of the aforementioned declaration stressed the need for China to refrain from interfering in Afghanistan’s internal affairs: “China will never interfere in the internal affairs of Afghanistan and does not seek selfish interests and influence in Afghanistan, and is still against any foreign influence and interference in this country.”
3- Afghanistan Should not Turn to the Backyard of the West
The countries of the region blame the Western countries, especially the United States, for creating the current crisis in Afghanistan. According to these countries, the United States has thrown Afghanistan into a puddle of crisis with its irresponsible withdrawal. The countries of the region think that a threat from Afghanistan cannot be directed at America, but the countries of the region are directly exposed to threats caused by the presence of terrorist groups in Afghanistan. The efforts of the countries of the region, especially China, Russia, and Iran, are aimed at keeping Afghanistan away from becoming a breeding ground for Western countries. To achieve this goal, they spend two types of effort, neither of which has been successful so far. One is that they have practiced the policy of appeasement to the Taliban and avoid threats, sanctions, and pressure. Not only do they stay away, but they also blame the United States for blocking the assets of the previous government and denying the Taliban access to them. Second, they start organizing regional meetings so that they can find a regional solution to end the Afghan crisis- a solution in which the Western countries play a lesser role.
What caused the Taliban not to welcome the demand of the regional countries is the lack of financial support from them or the lack of humanitarian aid to Afghanistan. This is despite the fact that the Taliban can work with the countries of the region more easily than with the Western countries as both sides are not very fond of democracy and democratic values, and this common aspect can make the ground for the sustainability of work better. During the last two years, most of the humanitarian aid has been sent to Afghanistan by Western countries, especially the United States, and the countries of the region have not made a tangible contribution to this process. The Taliban think that if they manage to establish a government in Afghanistan in the future that has national and international legitimacy, they will need financial support, which cannot be afforded by the countries in the region. It feels that the Taliban are trying to keep the balance between the countries of the region and the Western countries as much as possible and avoid completely slipping to one side. If they are going to slip, they will immediately slip to the side of the Western countries because they have the capacity to financially support the Taliban.
