Abu Ubaydah, the spokesman for the military wing of Hamas, on the night of Saturday, May 25, claimed in a video message that militants from this group had captured several Israeli soldiers in the Jabalia area in northern Gaza. He further alleged that some Israeli soldiers have been killed and wounded. According to his claim, Hamas fighters lured a group of Israeli soldiers into a tunnel, then killed, injured, and captured them. The video also shows the body of an Israeli soldier being dragged through a tunnel by Hamas fighters. Additionally, military equipment and ammunition are seen, which, according to Hamas, belonged to the captured soldiers. However, the number of captives is unspecified. Abu Ubaydah’s video message received wide coverage in non-Western media. Videos have also been circulated in Iranian media showing Palestinians celebrating in the West Bank and refugee camps in Lebanon, regardless of the veracity of the claim.
The claim’s universal pursuit prompted Avichay Adraee, the spokesman for the Israeli army, to refute what the spokesman for the military wing of Hamas had said to Arab media outlets, but he did not provide further details. Until now, international media and credible sources have not verified the documents released by Hamas. However, Daniel Hagee, an official spokesman for the Israeli army, has yet to comment, raising questions. However, in the coming days, more aspects of the incident will become clearer. More importantly, yesterday, several long-range rockets were fired from the city of Rafah towards Tel Aviv, resulting in two Israelis sustaining minor injuries.
The question raised is: assuming Hamas’ claim is true, what would be the repercussions for Israel?
1. If Hamas’ claim is indeed accurate, it would be unwelcome news and a headache for the Netanyahu government. The Jabalia area, where Hamas alleges to have captured Israeli soldiers, was previously cleared by the Israeli army but is now experiencing intense conflict once again. Northern Gaza was among the first areas targeted in the Israeli army’s ground assault, with claims that Hamas’s presence was eradicated, and their military capabilities destroyed. Consequently, the Israeli army ceased operations in that area and withdrew. Now, seeing that Israel’s efforts have yielded no results, Jabalia Camp these days resembles the early days of the Israeli ground invasion. In a sense, it could be said that Hamas’ military prowess may not have been diminished as much as the Netanyahu government expected.
2. If the statements by the Hamas military spokesman are accurate, Israel will find itself more than ever compelled to engage in negotiations for a ceasefire. Currently, 121 Israeli hostages are reportedly held by Hamas, with 37 of them said to have been killed in Israeli airstrikes. Now, if Hamas’ claim holds, the number of captives will increase, which is detrimental to the Netanyahu government. Israel’s past behavior has shown it to be particularly sensitive to the lives of its soldiers and less hesitant to exchange them for Palestinian prisoners. Following Hamas’ claim, reports surfaced in the media indicating a resumption of negotiations for a ceasefire in the coming days. There are also widespread reports suggesting that the Netanyahu government has granted its negotiating team greater authority this time. However, the negotiation process itself has its own complexities and is likely to be time-consuming. For example, Mohammed Mardawi, a member of Hamas’ political office, stated in response to the news of resumed negotiations, “Any proposal presented to Hamas must include the complete withdrawal of Israeli forces from the Gaza Strip.”
3. If Hamas’ claim proves to be true, the scope of public protests in Israel, which some media outlets in the country have labeled as “anti-government,” will become more widespread than ever before. For the past two days, cities such as Tel Aviv, Haifa, Jerusalem, Qasr-e Sham, and Rehovot have witnessed heavy protests that have even turned violent, with some individuals being detained. The number of protesters is estimated at 80,000, which is significant considering Israel’s population. Protesters have raised slogans demanding Netanyahu’s resignation, calling for new elections, and the release of hostages. Media reports, citing the Israeli Times, even suggest that protesters are demanding an end to the war without an agreement. The fact that previous hostages have not been released after eight months and more are being added to their number will undoubtedly be costly for Israeli citizens to accept.
4. Disregarding the possibility of reaching an agreement to end the war would be unwise. As seen in recent weeks, there has been some dissent within the Israeli war cabinet. Statements from Yuval Galant, the Israeli Defense Minister, and Benny Gantz, a member of this country’s war cabinet, indicate that both disagree with Netanyahu. They both call for a clear plan for managing Gaza after the war ends, but Netanyahu strongly rejects this. Gantz has recently called for the establishment of a “truth-finding committee” by the government to investigate the events of October 7th and the eight-month war, which Netanyahu is unlikely to accept at present. As mentioned earlier, in areas where Hamas was claimed to have been eradicated, their militants have resurfaced and are fighting against Israeli soldiers. Moreover, the hostages have not been released, and their whereabouts remain unknown. The pressure from the International Court regarding the necessity of stopping the attack on Rafah is also not without effect. The prosecutor’s request for the issuance of warrants for the arrest of Israeli officials can serve as a deterrent. The possibility of a widespread attack on Rafah is also unclear if it will lead to the desired outcome or not. For example, Antony Blinken, the US Secretary of State, stated two weeks ago that an attack on Rafah would not destroy Hamas. He cited northern Gaza as an example where Israel claimed to have cleared, but it did not hold. Statements from American officials who strongly support Israel carry particular significance, and cannot simply be dismissed.
Of course, these possibilities can only materialize if Hamas’ recent claim of capturing Israeli soldiers turns out to be false. Otherwise, we will witness the continuation or even worsening of the current situation.
You can read the Persian version of this analysis here: