In the Masnavi, Maulana narrates a comic yet instructive story: one night, a thief sat beside a wall, engrossed in making a hole to enter a house and loot its treasures. One of the residents awakened from a light sleep, heard the thief’s faint tapping, and sought to discern the situation. He climbed onto the roof, lowered his head, and asked the thief, “What are you doing here at midnight? Who are you, anyway?” The thief replied, “I’m busy knocking a drum.” The homeowner retorted, “If you’re truly knocking a drum, why isn’t there sound?” The thief replied, “You’ll hear the drumbeat and cries of distress tomorrow.”
Drawing from this metaphorical tale, it’s crucial to emphasize that the re-establishment of Taliban rule carries profoundly destructive and lasting consequences for Afghanistan and the region. The depth of the catastrophe Afghanistan is poised to suffer under this group’s governance will be truly understood in the coming years, and the drums currently beaten by the Taliban and their allied groups will echo loudly in the future. The most significant tragedy afflicted this country and the region under Taliban rule is that Afghanistan has become a hub for the convergence of extremist groups from around the world. These groups operate freely in the country, receiving ideological and military training in various centers scattered across the nation, preparing for significant missions on a global scale. Contrary to the Taliban’s propaganda, it has never severed its ties with extremist groups and continues to host them as it did in the past.
Recently, the Long War Journal published a report on a thesis by Saif al-Adl, the current leader of Al-Qaeda, in which he urges supporters of the organization worldwide to come to Afghanistan, learn from the experiences of the Taliban, and continue their global jihad using what they learn from the Taliban. Previously, the United Nations Security Council had reported Al-Qaeda’s presence in Afghanistan, stating that the group had established bases in several locations in the country and had prepared a weapons depot in Panjsher. Local sources also report noticeable activities of some Al-Qaeda elements in Panjsher province, speculating that one of the key figures of Al-Qaeda might be in the house of Ahmad Shah Massoud in Bazarak, Panjsher. It is said that the current governor of Panjsher, Hafiz Hakim Agha, is a recognized member of Al-Qaeda, and his presence in this province may be to provide necessary facilities for Al-Qaeda members to live comfortably and receive training there. The presence of fighters from the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan in Panjsher has also been reported. Additionally, there are reports of the presence of the Jamaat Ansarullah in Panjsher, possibly engaged in better preparations for future battles.
Taliban and other extremist groups, their allies, to strengthen and solidify their presence in Afghanistan, find it necessary to influence public opinion. Therefore, they have extensively engaged in establishing religious schools and educational centers throughout the country, especially in areas where the likelihood of opposition against the Taliban is presumed. International research institutions have also acknowledged the dangerous consequences of the Taliban’s widespread schooling efforts, including the Australian Institute of International Affairs (AIIA), which, in a report, referred to the establishment of religious schools in Afghanistan as a dangerous development in South Asia and warned that the Taliban’s endeavor carries severe repercussions for the region. The institute recalled that with the exodus of millions of Afghans to Pakistan during and after the war with the Soviet Union, many orphaned and disadvantaged children were drawn into religious schools, the consequences of which Afghanistan has not yet fully overcome. This institution considers the Taliban’s extensive schooling as a source of terrorism in the region. It emphasizes that the Taliban is determined to utilize resources to expand as many religious schools as possible, propagating extremist ideologies.
According to the Taliban’s sources in the Ministry of Education, the group has announced that there are currently 6,830 religious schools in Afghanistan, among which 5,618 began operating after the Taliban’s control over the country. Imagine when millions of individuals, both boys and girls, are annually engaged in learning extremist doctrines in religious schools, undoubtedly, over several years, the face of Afghanistan will completely change, and the country will become a paradise for fundamentalists worldwide.
An additional point to add to the report by the Australian Institute of International Affairs (AIIA) is that not only the Taliban but also other fundamentalist groups allied with them are seriously involved in expanding religious schools and educational institutions. The information available to us indicates that after the establishment of Taliban rule, Salafi-Jihadi groups (Salafis of Syria) have focused diligently on recruiting girls in Kabul and other cities to this ideological school. They have established dozens of schools and educational centers for this purpose, especially in northern Kabul. Although the Taliban consider themselves followers of the Hanafi school of thought and oppose Salafi groups, they utilize every means to strengthen their foundations. Their alliance with Al-Qaeda and other Salafi + Brotherhood groups, which has continued since the 1990s, indicates that the Taliban exploit extremist thinking to strengthen their positions, using both Hanafi and Salafi ideologies to their advantage. In other words, their use of religion is instrumental and has nothing to do with sincere beliefs or inner convictions.
The Taliban and other fundamentalist groups based in Afghanistan propagate extremist ideologies in their religious schools and encourage students to harbor hatred towards others under various pretexts, dividing the world into strange categories. The basis of these ideologies is rooted in sectarianism, excommunication, slander, and defamation. The proliferation of these ideologies in the diverse and heterogeneous society of Afghanistan poses a serious threat to pluralism in the country and may lead to the exacerbation of divisions and schisms within society. The Australian Institute of International Affairs (AIIA) rightly points out that the increasing extremism in Afghan society poses a serious threat to ethnic minorities such as Tajiks and Hazaras and may eventually lead to further suppression of them over time.
It is said that the Hanafi school of thought initially encouraged coexistence, tolerance, and peaceful cohabitation among various Muslim sects, but over time and throughout the centuries, it deviated from its initial teachings. The leaders of this school, considering various historical factors, saw it expedient to distort its teachings and make it resemble the Ahl al-Hadith and Salafi ideologies. However, the spread of Salafi ideology, which began with the arrival of Arab-Afghans to Afghanistan and Pakistan in the 1980s during the war against the Soviets and is now at its peak again with the resurgence of the Taliban, is alarming and concerning, as it now has vast resources at its disposal, making the situation more complicated.
Currently, Salafi groups in the country are boldly expressing their beliefs from various platforms and holding significant centers of influence, promoting religious and sectarian bigotry. These groups emphasize the expansion of Islam through force and encourage the Taliban to brutally suppress their intellectual opponents. Salafi and Hanafi groups, hand in hand with the Taliban, have so much leeway for their activities that they overtly urge people to expand “jihad” beyond Afghanistan’s borders and incite their audience to take armed action against Tajikistan, a country somewhat opposed to the Taliban’s policies. It is not unlikely that in the future, Salafi groups like the Jamaat Ansarullah in Tajikistan or the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, with the financial and moral support they receive from the Taliban, will create serious problems for the governments of Central Asia. Central Asian leaders appear concerned about this and often express their concerns about the spread of terrorism from Afghanistan to Central Asia.
Human experiences have shown that societies governed by moderation and coexistence, with leaders who create mechanisms to combat terrorism and violence, have fewer opportunities for the proliferation of extremist thinking. Conversely, the more extremist and divisive ideologies prevail in a society, the more peaceful coexistence and moderation are endangered, and minorities and vulnerable groups become threatened. Groups like the Taliban need to propagate extremist and dark ideologies for their survival. Therefore, it can be said that as long as Taliban rule persists, diversity and pluralism in society will diminish or disappear, and the fabric of peaceful coexistence and moderation will unravel.
You can read the Persian version of this analysis here:
حاکمیت طالبان و خطر گسترش تفکر افراطی در منطقه | روزنامه ۸صبح