Afghanistan’s present and future face various threats. Potential hazards, preventable with effective governance, may swiftly transform into significant risks for the country’s citizens in the absence of a legitimate and efficient government. Moreover, Afghanistan is currently poised amidst imminent dangers. Among these threats, which one looms largest and why?
One of these dangers is climate change. Untimely rains and resulting floods are witnessed across the country. Rainfalls, once a source of blessing, have now turned into calamities, destroying the toils of farmers over several seasons and, in some cases, claiming lives. In countries with functional governments, the impact of natural disasters is minimal. But in Afghanistan, both the Afghan people and their ruling groups attribute these occurrences to fate and nature, resulting in neither concerted efforts by the ruling group to combat natural disasters nor sufficient awareness among the populace about the government’s role in such instances. Consequently, this poses a current and future threat to Afghanistan.
Another peril is the rampant increase in population in the country. In a nation lacking standardized population statistics and control, unchecked population growth and the spread of debilitating diseases such as polio, measles, and other fatal illnesses act as a threat to the future of the nation instead of being an opportunity for the future generation. The absence of a proper educational system, lack of access to education in most regions, and the deprivation of girls from schools and universities, alongside the proliferation of births in both rural and urban areas leading to family impoverishment, create fertile ground for the growth of radicalism and the recruitment of extremist groups. In other countries, children are seen as assets for the future of the country, but in Afghanistan, this asset either falls victim to crippling and fatal diseases, falls prey to extremist groups, suffers abuse in mosques and schools, or dies in natural disasters or from mines and grenades. Even if they manage to survive these adversities and reach youth, they either become targets of border guards’ bullets at neighboring borders, fall prey to sharks on migration routes, or, at best, become embittered and deprived youths devoid of educational opportunities, resorting to strenuous activities. Only a few manage to rise above the dust and ashes and make something of themselves amidst such adversities.
The issue of unauthorized well digging and the depletion of underground water reserves is seldom discussed but can be designated as a threat to the future of the nation.
These mentioned perils, alongside several other evident and latent dangers, lurk in Afghanistan’s future. In ordinary circumstances, a single threat among these could prompt extraordinary governmental actions and compel accountability from the people. However, Afghanistan is not in ordinary circumstances; these threats are less taken seriously, and paradoxically, the ruling group itself poses the greatest threat to the nation’s future.
As enumerated, the threats are numerous, but the Taliban group stands out as the most significant among them. Now, let’s delve into why, among all the challenges facing Afghanistan, the Taliban group is the most perilous and calamitous for its future. In the author’s opinion, considering the following reasons, the Taliban group is more hazardous to the future of this country:
Expansion of Jihadist Education
Jihadi schools are hostile to modern education and knowledge. In these schools, the focus is on indoctrinating students with extremist and fundamentalist religious ideologies, devoid of any tolerance for diversity of thought. Individuals outside the circle of the school are introduced as enemies, and efforts are made to eradicate them, promoting a worldview that advocates escapism and portrays war and jihad as obligatory duties. Since their rise to power, the Taliban have been keen on expanding their network of schools because they understand that their survival hinges on propagating Taliban ideology and indoctrinating schoolchildren. Even Taliban authorities vie for control over specific school administrations because these schools serve as quasi-military camps and provide a reserve force for the group. The Taliban view schools as military academies, and students are seen as potential recruits. The expansion of schooling and anti-modern education is a clear agenda within the Taliban.
In addition to assisting the survival of the Taliban, the Taliban’s emphasis on jihadi schooling and its promotion poses a threat to future generations by clashing with modern education and undermining the influence of other educational systems. Over time, we will witness Afghanistan transforming into a jihadist school entirely under Taliban control, with its atmosphere completely Talibanized.
Furthermore, as these schools hold the status of military academies for the Taliban, they serve a similar purpose for other terrorist groups. These groups can easily recruit from these schools, turning the students into fodder for their wars.
These schools pose a significant threat even without Taliban rule in Afghanistan. However, with the presence of the Taliban, this threat escalates further. Given the conditions surrounding these schools, they become breeding grounds for various social and security crises in Afghanistan. Yet, the Taliban and their extensive support for schooling not only increase the threat posed by the Taliban but also to these schools.
Enmity towards knowledge and the achievements of human civilization
In the Taliban’s ideological framework, all rational experiences and scientific achievements of human civilization are disregarded and deemed hostile. According to the Taliban, Muslims are obligated only to learn religious sciences. Hence, the group persistently supports and expands jihadist schools. Contemporary knowledge is essentially antithetical to Taliban rule, and the group is well aware of this fact. A government aiming for a country’s development must reconcile with contemporary knowledge and the achievements of human civilization, unlike the Taliban, who oppose modern knowledge.
Misogyny
One of the most dangerous threats to Afghanistan’s future posed by the Taliban is their misogyny and oppression of women. The animosity towards women stems from the Taliban’s ideological and fundamentalist thinking. In the Taliban’s worldview, women symbolize lust, Satan, deviation, and evil. Regardless of their rationale, the consequences of opposition to women have severe implications for society, particularly in an era where women play a significant role in the advancement of modern civilization. The Taliban are oblivious to the changing nature of work in today’s world, where women’s skills, such as attention to detail, long-term focus, and patience, are more valuable than physical strength. A country striving for development must utilize the capabilities of all members of society, or else development will be stunted. Therefore, despite the Taliban’s extensive propaganda portraying themselves as a development-oriented group and circulating images of road reconstruction, their misogyny signifies that they are not development-oriented at all but rather against development.
Providing sanctuary to terrorist organizations
According to reports, several terrorist groups are active in Afghanistan under the shadow of the Taliban and with the support of this group. Apart from the current potential and actual threat posed by the presence of these groups in Afghanistan to the security of citizens and regional countries, there are also irreparable damages in the long run for the nation. When a community feels secure from terrorist groups, it is clear that apart from security consequences, there are also social and psychological consequences. One of the consequences is that members of these groups become role models among the masses. The new generation that is coming sees that the prevailing situation in society is dominated by guns and bullets, and they are naturally influenced by this situation and strive to establish their position through reliance on guns and force. After a few generations, the atmosphere of the entire country will become a terrorist. Furthermore, these groups will also strive to control the space and impose their will on the people. As a result, the long-term presence of the Taliban in Afghanistan and the presence of terrorist groups under the shadow of this group will terrorize the entire country.
Deepening ethnic and identity divides
The rift among the ethnic groups residing in Afghanistan is one of the country’s major headaches for its future. The Taliban exacerbate this divide through their governance style. In the Taliban’s governance method, it doesn’t matter if, for example, a ruler is familiar with the social context of a region; what matters is their affiliation with the Taliban. Consequently, for a northern district, they appoint a ruler from the south, for the west from the east, and for central areas, they appoint rulers from all zones except the central region itself. The masses perceive the Taliban as representatives of the Pashtuns, attributing any injustices from the rulers to the Pashtuns. Therefore, ethnic animosity arises, with the Taliban being the instigators.
Failure to take responsibility for natural and security incidents
In the initial months of Taliban rule, the group’s prime minister stated that it was not their responsibility to provide for the people’s livelihood. Despite the recent devastating floods in several provinces, the Taliban leader has not issued any statements regarding relief efforts. Furthermore, citizens complain about the group’s mismanagement in assisting the affected. These reasons and hundreds of others indicate that the group shirks responsibility for natural disasters. Regarding security incidents, although the Taliban have boasted of ensuring nationwide security, their handling of criminal events, which occasionally leak despite heavy censorship, proves their failure in this regard. The Taliban’s approach to security incidents is denial, deception, and lies, evident from their track record. Hence, a ruling group that refuses responsibility for natural disasters, entrusting the people’s livelihood to fate, and resorting to lies and denials in security incidents, spells disaster for a country with a population of about 40 million.
In addition to the aforementioned factors, what makes the Taliban a serious threat to Afghanistan’s and the region’s future is that, as a fundamentalist and extremist group, and a patron of terrorist groups, it effectively controls a quasi-state and practically governs a country.”
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