In a recent announcement, Joe Biden President of the United States has unveiled a plan emphasizing the establishment of a “permanent ceasefire” in the Gaza Strip, a stance he had previously opposed. According to Biden’s claim, the plan was proposed by Israel and transmitted to Hamas through Qatar. As articulated by Biden, the plan aims to achieve three objectives: a permanent cessation of hostilities, complete release of hostages, and reconstruction of Gaza. This plan unfolds in three phases: the first phase, spanning six weeks, includes the establishment of a ceasefire, the release of women and elderly hostages in exchange for the freedom of hundreds of Palestinian prisoners, the return of displaced persons to their original areas, the withdrawal of Israeli forces from densely populated areas, and the entry of 600 humanitarian aid trucks into Gaza daily. The second phase encompasses the permanent cessation of hostilities, complete release of hostages, and full withdrawal of the Israeli army from the Gaza Strip. The third phase is dedicated to the reconstruction of Gaza. If the parties fail to establish a permanent ceasefire in the first phase, it can be extended.
Biden’s remarks have been met with widespread global acclaim, with everyone emphasizing its swift implementation. Hamas, as a party to the conflict, has positively evaluated Biden’s plan in general, indicating acceptance. However, Israel, as the other party to the conflict, has not explicitly endorsed it yet. Now that the plan has been unveiled, the focus is on operationalizing its provisions, which, of course, is not feasible without Tel Aviv’s consent. Hence, the question arises: Will Israel consent to the plan declared by Biden?
While Benjamin Netanyahu, the Prime Minister of Israel, has not yet agreed, reactions within Israel, the realities on the ground in the Gaza conflict, and the approach of Western governments towards it suggest that Biden’s plan could come to fruition. In defense of this claim, the following points are addressed: [This is where the following analytical points would be articulated.]
1- Utilizing Netanyahu’s stance, it is argued that he covertly supports Biden’s plan but is seeking to buy time. It is noteworthy that when Biden claimed the plan was presented by Israel, it was neither confirmed nor denied by Netanyahu’s office. Instead, the response was: “The war continues until the destruction of Hamas, the complete release of hostages, and ensuring Gaza cannot threaten Israel again.” In this response, Biden’s assertion regarding the plan’s presentation by Israel remains unconfirmed. Moreover, Ofir Gendelman, Netanyahu’s political advisor, claimed in an interview with The Sunday Times, a renowned British media outlet, that his country had previously agreed to Biden’s plan. Importantly, Netanyahu, unlike in the past, has not adopted a confrontational tone against Biden’s statements. Yair Lapid, leader of the Yesh Atid party and opposition to the Israeli government, stated that since Netanyahu had previously accepted the plan, he should not reject it now. Therefore, it can be said that Netanyahu covertly accepts the plan and is only preparing the ground for its universal acceptance.
2- After the United States took charge of the forty-day ceasefire plan in coordination with Qatar and Egypt, American officials have since accused Hamas of warmongering and evading acceptance of the ceasefire. Some global media outlets even reported that, at America’s request, Qatar had put the option of expelling Hamas leaders from its territory on the table. A few weeks ago, when a ceasefire proposal presented by intermediaries was accepted by Hamas but rejected by Israel, the latter’s military occupied the Palestinian side of the Rafah crossing in response. Now, Biden has once again addressed both sides of the conflict and demanded compliance. Hamas has accepted this time, but Israel has not yet done so. If Netanyahu rejects it formally once again, America may be compelled to hold him accountable as well. Therefore, Yair Lapid stated, “The Israeli government cannot ignore Biden’s speech. The agreement is on the table and must be acted upon.”
3- Supporters of the ceasefire in Israel are mostly in the majority, while opponents are in the minority. Only two political parties, both staunch right-wing supporters, advocate for the continuation of the war, both of which are allies of Netanyahu: the Jewish Power and Religious Zionism parties. Itamar Ben Gvir, the Minister of National Security, and Bezalel Smotrich, the Minister of Transportation, lead the former. These two ministers have threatened Netanyahu with “government dissolution” if he heeds Biden’s call. These parties hold 15 seats in the Israeli parliament, which played a role in Netanyahu’s victory. While maintaining their satisfaction is important for Netanyahu, he cannot afford to ignore the demands of Biden and other internal forces of his country. For instance, Biden has stated that Netanyahu must resist pressures and not yield to those who seek to occupy the Gaza Strip. Biden’s aim is to pressure these two ministers. Yair Lapid has also announced that if these two ministers resign, he will fill their vacancies in the cabinet. Lapid’s party holds 22 seats in the opposition. Isaac Herzog, the President of Israel, has also stated that if Netanyahu supports Biden’s plan, he will stand by him: “The country is responsible for returning hostages at any cost as part of a deal to support Israel’s security interests.” Most importantly, the families of hostages and protesters in cities are also demanding the early implementation of the ceasefire proposal. Therefore, it is unlikely that the Prime Minister will continue to heed the insistence of his two allies on the war.
4- In his speech, Biden hinted at another tempting possibility for Netanyahu: normalizing relations with Saudi Arabia. Peace with Riyadh is crucial for both Israel and America. For Tel Aviv, it is important because it allies the most significant Arab-Islamic power in the region, a move that will marginalize its enemies. For the Biden administration, it is important because it can be utilized it as a trump card in electoral campaigns, which will be highly impactful. Biden will argue that normalizing relations with Riyadh will secure Israel’s security in the region and prevent Hamas and other groups from attacking the country again. Peace with Saudi Arabia can only be achieved once the war in Gaza ends. Therefore, Biden is striving to monopolize the credit for normalizing relations between Riyadh and Tel Aviv and not let it fall into the hands of others, especially Donald Trump.
5- As mentioned in the previous three paragraphs, the realities of the battlefield have left Netanyahu with no choice but to consider the option of withdrawing from the Gaza quagmire, lest he be defeated. Israel has not achieved any of its objectives so far. Hamas is not only undefeated, but the US is now repeatedly urging it to accept a ceasefire proposal. Perhaps the Netanyahu government has concluded that the continuation of the war only results in the killing of civilians, not necessarily Hamas militants; something that has angered the world and further isolated Israel. Therefore, the White House plan is the best pretext for Netanyahu to either cover up his failure in the war by endorsing it or to present himself as a sacrifice for his strategic ally’s request. Similarly, the Security Council resolution calling for a “sustainable ceasefire” issued earlier but not implemented is a good pretext. The International Criminal Court’s ruling on avoiding an attack on Rafah is also the best excuse.
Of course, these possibilities become realities when the Biden administration does not confine itself to announcing the proposal but exerts necessary pressure on the Netanyahu government; otherwise, like other global recommendations and warnings, it will be ignored.
You can read the Persian version of this analysis here: