The sudden death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash has sent shockwaves through the region, particularly affecting Afghanistan, which is already struggling with significant political and economic challenges. Iran, which shares a long and often turbulent border with Afghanistan, now faces increased uncertainty, especially regarding ongoing disputes over water rights and border security issues.
Raisi’s Complex Legacy and Iran’s Internal Politics
Dr. Mahbob Shah Mahbob, a former lecturer at Kabul University, utilized social media, specifically X (formerly Twitter), to discuss the potential reshaping of regional political dynamics following Raisi’s death. Mahbob emphasized Raisi’s controversial stance on the Afghan water issue, characterizing him as a polarizing figure closely aligned with Iran’s Supreme Leader. Despite his influence, Raisi lacked the favor bestowed upon the Supreme Leader’s son, indicating underlying internal political dynamics within Iran.
Raisi’s presidency was defined by his hardline stance and substantial influence over Iran’s judicial system, where he enforced strict measures against dissent. Notably, he sought to improve relations with Saudi Arabia with China’s help and managed complex geopolitical tensions involving India, Pakistan, and Saudi Arabia. His administration also normalized relations with several Arab countries, marking a significant shift in regional politics.
Speculations and Regional Dynamics
Ali Bagheri Kani, a close confidant of Raisi, has assumed the role of Iran’s Acting Foreign Minister. However, the history of Iranian presidents facing assassination or death while in office fuels speculation about the future. Mahbob suggested that while Raisi’s demise may not have an immediate impact on the region, evolving circumstances could alter this outlook.
During his presidency, Raisi encountered significant domestic opposition, criticized for his administration’s heavy-handed approach to quelling protests. His death leaves a void at a critical juncture. Former Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif accused the United States of indirectly contributing to the crash through aviation-related embargoes, exacerbating Iran’s aviation challenges.
The already intricate geopolitical landscape, characterized by ongoing conflicts such as the Hamas-Israel war, may witness further shifts. Raisi’s efforts to mend relations with Saudi Arabia and maintain a fragile peace with Israel now face uncertainty. Internally, Iran could experience turmoil if suspicions arise regarding external involvement in Raisi’s demise, as highlighted by Dr. Abdul Ghafoor Liwal, former Afghan ambassador to Iran. Liwal stressed the importance of a thorough investigation to determine the cause of the crash, affirming Iran’s capacity to swiftly address internal issues.
Raisi’s passing occurs amid heightened regional tensions, with the Afghanistan–Pakistan border serving as a focal point for opposition activities. Regional powers like China, Russia, the US, and NATO have vested interests in the area. Pakistan’s economic challenges contribute to its complex role, leveraging its strategic position for international support.
Liwal underscored Afghanistan’s significance to Iran, particularly under prevailing sanctions. Iran’s reliance on trade and business with Afghanistan, especially in sectors like mining, water, agriculture, and poultry, underscores Afghanistan’s critical stability for Iran’s interests.
Internal and External Implications
In the immediate aftermath, the repercussions of Raisi’s death are likely to resonate more within Iran than across the region. While the Supreme Leader retains ultimate authority, Raisi’s demise may hasten internal power struggles. Competition within Iran’s coercive apparatus could intensify, potentially marginalizing clerical leadership further.
Iran’s foreign policy fundamentals, such as the “axis of resistance” involving China and Russia, are expected to remain intact. However, immediate diplomatic relations, particularly with countries like Saudi Arabia, may encounter temporary setbacks. Rebuilding these ties, led by Raisi’s trusted diplomats, including Amir-Abdollahian, will require time and effort.
The loss of Raisi presents both challenges and opportunities for Iran. As the country navigates this evolving reality, the region remains vigilant. The unfolding situation will test Iran’s political system’s resilience and adaptability amid shifting leadership dynamics.
