It is no secret that the power struggle among Taliban leaders intensifies with each passing day, and no one is more concerned about this ongoing conflict than Mullah Hibatullah himself. As his power grows, so does his anxiety and obsession with the prospect of being ousted from his position. To alleviate these fears, he is perpetually vigilant and oppressive, consolidating power and attempting to suppress all dissent within and outside the Taliban regime.
While successfully suppressing external dissent and instilling fear among the people, his efforts to suppress internal opposition could have been more fruitful, leaving him frustrated. His benevolent and preaching tone during the Eid sermon in Kandahar province reveals his shortcomings and inability to effectively suppress powerful rivals who seem to challenge his leadership seriously. One such rival is Sirajuddin Haqqani, leader of the Haqqani network and Taliban interior minister, who reports suggesting Mullah Hibatullah once again intends to dismiss if he can.
Previously, the Taliban supreme leader had sought to remove Haqqani without success, fearing that such a dismissal could escalate power struggles among Taliban leaders and exacerbate longstanding tensions within their ranks, further exposing vulnerabilities in the Taliban regime. These tensions have historically played a crucial and decisive role in Afghan politics, consistently shaping the fate of the land through its peaks and valleys, underscoring its enduring significance.
Among the Taliban, there are primarily two factions: conservative and pragmatic. However, within each faction, one can find both Ghilzai and Durani. One faction’s leadership leans towards hardline positions, while another faction’s leader carries the banner of moderation. The complexity lies in how this dynamic plays out, often revealing more about themselves than they intend.
In the current tension between Mullah Hibatullah and Sirajuddin Haqqani, will all the hardliners of the conservative and pragmatic factions side with the Taliban leader, and will all the moderates of these factions side with the group’s interior minister? If the answer is affirmative, Mullah Hibatullah could confidently engage with the moderates, as he would have broad Taliban support. The likelihood of him prevailing in the power struggle against Haqqani would be very high. However, if the answer is negative, Mullah Hibatullah would have significantly less chance of victory in the power struggle against the leader of the moderates, and his nightmares would persist.
Compared to their rule’s early days, there are more pragmatic Taliban members. They have realized that unless they can meet global demands concerning human rights, women’s rights, and counterterrorism efforts, and establish an all-inclusive government, they will not be internationally recognized. Consequently, the Taliban regime is not very stable. The fear of collapse is so profound that it exacerbates discord among Taliban leaders, potentially leading to military confrontations.
The conservative faction under Mullah Hibatullah’s leadership is steadfastly unwilling to compromise on what Islamic Sharia demands, never stepping back from their stance. Thus far, the conservative faction has held the initiative, while the pragmatists have not taken proactive steps. They raised media voices for a while and then revered their “Amir al-Mu’minin.” However, is it now time to say that the patience of Mullah Hibatullah’s opponents has run out, and we should await significant developments? It is premature to answer this question positively, but it is clear that some Taliban leaders are dissatisfied with Mullah Hibatullah’s three-year performance in various arenas and are trying to capitalize on any opportunity against him.
Excessive power brings about greater obsession and anxiety. Mullah Hibatullah, as overwhelmed as he is by the madness of power, will resort to any means necessary to remain in power. Disobedience to restrictive orders and commands from a dictatorial ruler who seeks to exert authority over all aspects of his people’s lives is considered a great humiliation and is unacceptable. Dictators detest anyone suggesting they are fallible. Their absence from power is akin to military collapse, for which they assume leadership. Indeed, if a dictator pursues their course, their constructed and imposed system will crumble. Since dictators, being monopolistic and self-centered, trust no other in governance and retain all resources for themselves, in their absence, the regime will collapse, and another system—possibly better or worse—will take its place. More than anything, a dictator fears the potential collapse of their established and imposed system. Hence, they constantly demand unity and solidarity from their subordinates, sometimes with authority, sometimes with excuses and pleas, to avoid disobedience and hypocrisy. This chronic and perpetual anxiety that everything may be lost clings to dictators until their dying breath, sometimes leading to horrific crimes.
You can read the Persian version of this analysis here:
کابوسهای ملا هبتالله؛ برکناری از قدرت و فروپاشی رژیم طالبانی | روزنامه ۸صبح