Arriving in Dushanbe, Tajikistan, for the tenth Herat Security Dialogue last year felt like stepping into the familiar embrace of Kabul, my home. Each stride through the city streets echoed the paths of Balkh, Badakhshan, Herat, Takhar, or Baghlan in my imagination. The resonance deepened when my dear friend, Dr. Rangin Dadfar Spanta, former Foreign Minister of Afghanistan, shared how the city always made him feel “at home.” This time, however, a subtle shift occurred. The Afghan air, carrying whispers from the other side, now bore the faint scent of the “Taliban.” It struck a chord with Dr. Spanta and many of us; the ease of traveling to Dushanbe stood in stark contrast to the complexities tied to Kabul, Kandahar, Bamyan, Balkh, or our motherland/fatherland.
To be honest, last year, as I boarded a Turkish Airlines plane from Istanbul, each time my eyes fell on the flight map displayed on the screen in front of me, highlighting the map of Afghanistan, especially the name Kabul, I imagined I was heading to “Kabul Jan.” It was as if my mind considered every flight towards neighboring lands a journey back to my “homeland.” However, this feeling was fleeting, and I knew that going to Kabul might not be possible for me now, I also didn’t know how long the dream would persist. This time, too, as I flew from Istanbul to Tashkent on November 20th, before attending the eleventh Herat Security Dialogue, that same previous feeling visited me two or three times during the flight. There was a time when I believed that if I couldn’t go to Kabul one day, I might not be able to stay “alive,” but it has been more than two years since I couldn’t travel to “Kabul Jan,” and “still,” I am alive.
Once again, after a three-day stop in Tashkent, I head to the city of Dushanbe to attend the eleventh Herat Security Dialogue, organized by the “Afghan Institute for Strategic Studies (AISS),” led by my esteemed friend, Dr. Davood Moradian.
Alongside other key topics related to Afghanistan and the region, a discussion is dedicated to “National Dialogue: Toward a Democratic Afghanistan.” The conversation about the future of a democratic Afghanistan, especially in a situation where the Taliban dominate the majority of Afghan territory and have imposed the worst living conditions on the country’s people, particularly women, is a noble aspiration but seems unattainable in the short term. Discussions of this nature have been ongoing for at least two years now, following the collapse of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan and the resurgence of the Taliban’s ignorant and primitive regime. These discussions persist among various segments of the Afghan population, especially among the youth, educated individuals, and women.
Foreign experts and international organizations also express their desire for the establishment of a democratic system based on constitutional law and elections in Afghanistan. Despite this, the means to achieve this aspiration, for the majority of individuals, including myself, remains unclear, and I do not have a specific timeframe for its realization. Part of this uncertainty has reasons, some of which I will mention here:
- The fragmentation of political forces in democratic Afghanistan and the lack of trust and unity among these forces are major factors. Individuals and groups aiming to establish a democratic order in Afghanistan still lack organized structures, domestic and international support, and sufficient self-confidence for this task. Some of these individuals and forces are divided along ethnic and linguistic lines, while others have neither formulated a planned approach nor possess enough self-confidence to make their initiatives public. They are divided into small, few-membered groups and have failed to establish connections and trust with similar groups and individuals.
- The lack of public trust in Afghan society towards former political forces, especially the jihadist groups that, before the collapse of the republic system, played a role in corruption, favoritism, ethnicity conflicts, and crimes, is another factor contributing to this impasse. The people of Afghanistan, during the years of the presence of Western forces, witnessed how these former jihadist forces normalized financial and political corruption, exacerbating ethnic conflicts for their narrow interests. They were not accountable to the law and tarnished democratic processes with fraud and forgery.
- The international and neighboring community’s mistrust of these forces and their support for the destabilizing influence that the Taliban have introduced is another element. The international community, led by the United States, believes that despite two decades of unwavering support, Afghan political forces failed to establish a stable and robust government. On the other hand, they contend that with the return of the Taliban, relative security has been restored across Afghanistan. However, due to their engagement in other international affairs, these countries no longer see Afghanistan as a top priority and, in some cases, are willing to engage with the Taliban. Simultaneously, the West, especially the United States, does not want the situation in Afghanistan to evolve in a way that leads to the resurgence of former jihadist forces.
- The extensive encirclement and stringent control exerted by the Taliban over the entirety of Afghanistan’s geography is yet another factor. This group rapidly expanded its encirclement and control across the Afghan territory following the collapse of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan. In the aftermath, the Taliban managed to acquire the most advanced weapons and military tools left by the Afghan defense and security forces. Some armed activities by opposing fronts to the Taliban during this period were severely suppressed, and anti-Taliban groups were unable to liberate any region. This hindered their ability to pose a serious challenge to the Taliban after the consolidation of military and political forces.
- The severe suppression of any activity perceived by the Taliban as contrary to their interests and regime authority is prevalent. The Taliban, being an authoritarian group and opposed to any political or civil engagement, nullifies laws that guarantee the creation and operation of such groups. They do not permit any political or civil activities and harshly suppress, imprison, torture, and even execute any group that acts against this policy.
Numerous other factors could be listed, but in my belief, the dispersion of Afghanistan’s democratic forces is the most crucial factor contributing to the persistence of the Taliban regime. The jihadist forces and the actors of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan, led by Ashraf Ghani, no longer enjoy internal and international trust due to their involvement in corruption, crimes, and ethnic conflicts. They have yet to acknowledge their ethical bankruptcy and past reprehensible actions and apologize to the people of Afghanistan.
Unfortunately, there is also a lack of necessary trust among the democratic forces. They are fragmented into smaller factions, and despite two years passing since the resurgence of the Taliban regime, they have been unable to reach an agreement on a clear roadmap for Afghanistan’s future, whether with or without the Taliban, including those Taliban factions willing to engage with these forces.
I, despite considering international conferences on Afghanistan, especially the continuation of the Herat Security Dialogue, necessary, believe that there is still a long way to go to achieve a consensus among the forces opposing the Taliban. Therefore, once again, the “Breezes of Dushanbe bring Kabul’s Enchanting Scent“ is present, and I feel it with all my being. I believe that despite the geographical proximity to Afghanistan and discussions to shape a roadmap for the future and build trust among the forces opposing the Taliban, it may not be possible for me and hundreds of thousands of other exiles who cannot return to their homeland due to the Taliban’s rule to go back to Kabul without fear and apprehension anytime soon.
Certainly, despite serious deficiencies and structural challenges among the anti-Taliban forces, there is no prospect regarding the “normalization” of the world’s relationship with the Taliban. The Taliban do not possess the capacity and inclination for normalization, and the people of Afghanistan, along with the international community, do not believe in the Taliban’s ability to undergo such a transformation. For this reason, it appears that breaking this impasse is a matter of “when” and “how,” not “if.”
In the eleventh Herat Security Dialogue, the “Zohra Orchestra” is scheduled to participate and showcase its art. This orchestra, predominantly composed of young girls and boys, came back to life outside the country with the help of Dr. Naser Sarmast, the head of the Afghanistan National Institute of Music, following the collapse of the republic and the return of the Taliban. Now, this orchestra serves as a beacon of hope for Afghanistan’s tomorrow, where love, freedom, and diversity are revived. Like the mythical phoenix, the bird that, when its death is near, beats its wings together, turning itself into ashes, yet from within these ashes, a young phoenix arises and comes back to life.