Recently, Mawlawi Amir Khan Muttaqi, the acting Foreign Minister of the Taliban, made unprecedented statements alleging that three neighboring countries of Afghanistan support ISIS. According to his claim, one of these countries provides manpower to ISIS, another offers training and shelter, and the third directs its attacks. Although Muttaqi did not explicitly name any specific country, based on media reports, it is suggested that his target includes Pakistan, Tajikistan, and Iran. Muttaqi’s statements have received widespread coverage in the media, sparking a new debate on counterterrorism efforts in Afghanistan. His claims warrant scrutiny because he asserts that if these three countries fulfill their responsibilities, there will be no issues in Afghanistan and the region.
In light of Muttaqi’s statements, two questions arise:
1. How valid is Muttaqi’s claim?
To address this question, it is pertinent to briefly discuss the stance of those three countries regarding ISIS:
1.1. Pakistan and ISIS
Pakistan, often accused of supporting terrorism, is simplistically labeled as such, overlooking the fact that its support for terrorism varies depending on its interests, not a blanket endorsement. The issue of harboring the Pakistani Taliban (Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan, TTP) by the Afghan Taliban has also led Islamabad to be accused of supporting ISIS. Yes, Pakistan is displeased with the Afghan Taliban, but not to the extent of siding with ISIS against them. Turning to ISIS is currently counterproductive for Islamabad, as the Afghan Taliban portray themselves as victims of the frontline in the global war on terror, garnering international support. If we recall, General Mark Milley, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the United States, stated in September 2021 that cooperation between his country and the Taliban against ISIS is conceivable. Hence, Islamabad has more effective and cost-efficient options to persuade the Afghan Taliban to combat the TTP. Reestablishing communication with anti-Taliban forces could be one of these options.
1.2. Tajikistan and ISIS
Tajikistan, due to its proximity to Afghanistan and the perennially turbulent situation in the country, has often been concerned. Not only Tajikistan, but other Central Asian republics are also currently anxious about Afghanistan’s troubled state. More importantly, Tajikistan’s membership in the Collective Security Treaty Organization and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization under the leadership of Russia and China respectively is significant; both organizations ostensibly consider combating ISIS as part of their mission. Concurrently with Muttaqi’s statements, Sergey Shoygu, the Defense Minister of Russia, stated that the main threat against the SCO member states originates from Afghanistan. If Tajikistan supports ISIS, how can its membership in these two organizations remain intact?
Yes, according to reports, Tajik citizens have been involved in attacks on Moscow and Kerman. It appears that this might be the basis for Mr. Muttaqi’s claim. However, this does not necessarily indicate the Tajik government’s support for terrorism, especially ISIS. For now, according to reports, members of Jamaat Ansarullah and the Tehrik-e Taliban Tajikistan (TTT), considered terrorists by the government, are present in northeastern Afghanistan. It is said that Jamaat Ansarullah members have fought alongside ISIS in Iraq and Syria. The latter group, after the resurgence of the Afghan Taliban, has become active again and aims to overthrow President Emomali Rahmon. The perpetrators of the Moscow and Kerman attacks could be members of these two groups who, according to reports, have taken refuge in Afghanistan, though they are counted as Tajik citizens.
Furthermore, it does not seem plausible that Tajikistan can utilize ISIS against the Taliban. Even if it did, it wouldn’t, because it’s not beneficial. The fact is that not only Tajikistan but also other Central Asian republics have no history of using proxy forces against others’ interests. Suppose Tajikistan intended to overthrow the Taliban regime; it could militarily support the National Resistance Front of Afghanistan (NRF), which, if not beneficial, would not incur significant losses. In a period where military movements of the National Resistance Front of Afghanistan (NRF) have intensified in certain urban centers, Muttaqi’s claim could also be influenced by the hosting of this front by Tajikistan.
1.3. Iran and ISIS
Iran considers itself more than any other country a victim of ISIS’s emergence. The Islamic Republic waged war against ISIS in Syria and Iraq to keep the threat away from Iran. Tehran’s presence in the Middle East intensified afterward. Its relationship with the Taliban has also strengthened since then. Tehran, which speaks of the danger of terrorism spreading in Afghanistan, targets ISIS, not other groups. Iran’s shaky friendship with the Taliban these days is primarily to contain ISIS.
If Muttaqi’s claim is correct, it raises questions about Iran’s interests. While this country desires the survival of the Taliban, even if it intends their demise, it has more effective options at its disposal. Iranian media have also echoed Muttaqi’s statements, mentioning that the Taliban have previously accused Pakistan and Tajikistan of supporting ISIS. However, they noted that Muttaqi’s target from the third neighbor is unclear.
In conclusion, if we base governments’ behavior on calculations of profit and loss, which is certainly the case, supporting ISIS against the Taliban is not only not beneficial but also detrimental for all three aforementioned countries. If their behavior is based on something else, that’s a different discussion.
2. Why did Muttaqi make such an unprecedented claim?
1-2. The presence of the Taliban in Afghanistan is more a cause for concern for neighboring countries and the region than for the Western world. Western governments, distant from Afghanistan, do not take the terrorism threat very seriously. American officials have repeatedly claimed that their country, using modern technology, can remotely control terrorism. But the situation in the region is so dire that even the Afghan Taliban are accused by Pakistan of hosting terrorists. Russian and Central Asian officials have also repeatedly claimed that more than 21 terrorist groups are present and active in Afghanistan under the Taliban’s rule. Likewise, a recent statement by senior officials from Iran and Pakistan warned of the danger of terrorism spreading in Afghanistan. The recent statements by the Russian Defense Minister are also significant. Now, Muttaqi, by refuting those claims and raising a new allegation, perhaps wants to portray the Taliban as victims of terrorism.
2-2. The natural consequence of the above point is the Taliban’s inclination towards the United States. Muttaqi’s statements become meaningful when we consider the remarks of Russian and Iranian officials accusing Washington of supporting ISIS against the Taliban. Russia and Iran have repeatedly accused Washington of supporting ISIS against the Taliban, a claim that the Kabul regime has not endorsed. For example, Sergey Lavrov, the Russian Foreign Minister, claimed in June last year that the United States supports ISIS and al-Qaeda groups in Afghanistan. According to Lavrov, America wants to keep Afghanistan in a perpetual state of unrest. Subsequently, Hassan Kazemi Qomi, the Iranian Ambassador to Afghanistan, claimed in early August of the same year in an interview with Iranian media that Washington uses ISIS as a pressure tool against the Taliban. He even stated that America has replaced its soldiers with ISIS militants in Afghanistan. But now, Muttaqi addresses those who made those statements, saying, “Your allied countries support ISIS against the Taliban, not the United States.”
Muttaqi’s statements are not entirely new. Zabihullah Mujahid, the Taliban spokesperson, said in May last year in response to the Russian Defense Minister’s statements regarding the presence of terrorist groups in Afghanistan that “regional countries should not allow saboteurs to enter Afghanistan.” The content of Mujahid’s statement is the same as Muttaqi’s, but the latter has been expressed more explicitly after almost a year.
In addition to the above, Zalmay Khalilzad, the former U.S. Special Representative for Afghanistan Reconciliation, also called for constructive dialogue between Pakistan and the Afghan Taliban in mid-December of last year, through a post published in his X (formerly Twitter) account. He emphasized that ISIS should not become a tool of pressure for Islamabad against the Kabul regime. Furthermore, The Sunday Guardian, an Indian newspaper, claimed in February of the current year that Islamabad supports ISIS against the Taliban.
The points raised in response to the second question indicate the Taliban’s slide towards the United States because this country, on the one hand, does not take the terrorism issue in Afghanistan very seriously, and on the other hand, its financial support is quite appealing. More importantly, the recognition of the Taliban regime or its opposite depends more on the will of that country; something that Taliban officials have also admitted repeatedly.
You can read the Persian version of this analysis here: