The presence of Al-Qaeda in Afghanistan under the rule of the Taliban has become a contentious issue for Republicans and Democrats in the United States. In the latest development, CNN, citing two American officials, has reported that the revival of Al-Qaeda in Afghanistan and Pakistan seems unlikely. According to the report, these American officials presented an optimistic view of terrorist groups weakening to demonstrate that despite the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, insurgent groups are on the decline. The American officials stated that the Al-Qaeda threat has decreased in recent decades, but Washington maintains the capability to track terrorist threats in Afghanistan. Meanwhile, the United Nations, pointing to the extensive infiltration of Al-Qaeda members within the Taliban structure, emphasizes that this network uses Afghanistan as an “ideological and logistical center.” Nevertheless, security analysts perceive the weakening of Al-Qaeda in Afghanistan as “strategically engineered to justify U.S. policies.”
CNN, citing two American officials, has reported that it seems unlikely for Al-Qaeda to revive itself in Afghanistan and Pakistan. The report emphasizes that these American officials have portrayed an optimistic image of terrorist groups weakening in Afghanistan to demonstrate that despite the United States’ withdrawal, insurgent groups in the country are on the decline. According to the report, the Al-Qaeda threat has diminished significantly under the rule of the Taliban.
U.S. officials have added that following the drone strike in Kabul in August 2022, which resulted in the killing of Ayman al-Zawahiri, the leader of Al-Qaeda, the group remains “leaderless and lacking strategic guidance.” The report indicates that since the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, the United States has shifted its intelligence efforts away from counterterrorism priorities toward China and Russia. According to the report, the Biden administration has emphasized that it has maintained its capabilities to track terrorism-related threats in Afghanistan.
However, some U.S. officials have privately expressed concerns that by relocating U.S. intelligence assets from the Middle East and South Asia, the Biden administration may face difficulties in tracking threats stemming from ISIS, which has continued its activities in uncontrollable regions in Syria and elsewhere. The report notes that the ISIS Khorasan (IS-K) threat remains persistent in Afghanistan, and this group has carried on with its attacks in the country. Following the return of the Taliban to power, ISIS Khorasan (IS-K) launched its first major attack on Kabul’s airport, resulting in the deaths of dozens, including 13 American soldiers, and injuring many others.
CNN has reported that ISIS has killed 13 American soldiers in its suicide bombing attack at the “Abbey Gate” of Kabul Airport. The report also mentions ISIS attacks on the Russian and Pakistani embassies, Chinese trade representatives, and the vicinity of Kabul Airport, which targeted the Taliban.
According to the report, one American official expressed concerns about the ISIS threat, stating that it is different from what Al-Qaeda did on September 11, 2001. These American officials have indicated that their intelligence suggests ISIS is under increasing pressure from the Taliban, and many key leaders of the group have left Afghanistan in recent months. However, the report notes that ISIS continues to pose a significant threat domestically, and regional countries are worried about the group’s cross-border operational capabilities.
In the CNN report, it is suggested that the assessments by the United States downplay the resurgence of terrorism, in contrast to a report published in June of this year by the United Nations Sanctions Committee. According to the UN report, “Al-Qaeda is in the process of reorganization and is establishing new training facilities in Kunar and Nuristan provinces of Afghanistan.”
The report indicates that Al-Qaeda’s activities in Afghanistan are proceeding discreetly, with members of the network holding prominent positions within the judicial, security, and other government sectors under Taliban management. It is emphasized in the report that Al-Qaeda uses Afghanistan as an “ideological and logistical center” to recruit new fighters and employ them in pursuit of their extremist agendas.
In the latest development, Ruslan Sismabayev, the Deputy Chairman of Kazakhstan’s National Security Committee, at the 40th session of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), regarded the presence of Al-Qaeda in Afghanistan as a potential threat to the region. He stated that the number of Al-Qaeda fighters in Afghanistan has reached 500 individuals. Meanwhile, the United Nations Sanctions Committee has estimated Al-Qaeda fighters in Afghanistan to be between 400 to 600 individuals.
Meanwhile, a letter from Ayman al-Zawahiri to Osama bin Laden, reviewed under the code name “Reviewing the Abbottabad Case: What Did Al-Zawahiri Say to bin Laden in His Last Letter?” by the Hasht-e Subh Daily, indicates that Al-Qaeda has no intention of leaving Afghanistan under any circumstances. The letter states that the group intends to maintain its relations with the Taliban. Additionally, Mawlawi Abdul Kabir, the Acting Third Deputy Prime Minister for Political Affairs of the Taliban, recently stated that Mullah Omar, the founder of the Taliban, did not want to hand over Osama bin Laden, the leader of Al-Qaeda, to the United States because, in his words, “it would be a disgrace to hand over a Muslim to the infidels.”
Following the statements by U.S. officials regarding the weakening of Al-Qaeda in Afghanistan, some security analysts believe that these statements have been made by U.S. authorities to justify their catastrophic withdrawal from the country. According to them, the Biden administration, on the brink of presidential elections, aims to reduce pressure and manipulate voters’ opinions by showcasing a decrease in Al-Qaeda activities.
Afrasiab Khattak, a regional affairs analyst and Pakistani politician, speaking to the Hasht-e Subh Daily, considers the claims of two American officials about the weakening of Al-Qaeda in Afghanistan as “strategically engineered to justify U.S. policies against terrorism.” He states, “The U.S. is providing the Taliban with forty million dollars weekly. If progress in weakening terrorist organizations under the Taliban’s rule doesn’t appear, Congress and the media will question the U.S. government’s policy towards Afghanistan. The Taliban in Afghanistan have not come with the agenda of eradicating terrorism; on the contrary, the goal of this project is to further expand terrorism.”
Rahmatullah Nabil, the Head of the National Directorate of Security (NDS) for the previous Afghan government, suggests that these are political games being played in Washington. He emphasizes, “Some individuals within the ruling party in the United States are politicizing information to portray the Taliban as a trustworthy partner and to support Thomas West and Rina Amiri in increasing interaction with the Taliban. On the contrary, the United Nations report is clear and explicit about Al-Qaeda’s activities.”
On the other hand, Samad Samadi, a security affairs expert, states that demonstrating the strengthening of Al-Qaeda in Afghanistan is not in America’s interest, and currently, Washington does not want to highlight the presence of this terrorist network under Taliban rule. According to him, Al-Qaeda is under Iran’s control, and Tehran will use this group as a defensive shield against ISIS.
Mr. Samadi emphasizes that the intelligence agencies of regional and global powers are highly active in Afghanistan, especially Israel’s intelligence, which has become significantly active and has a strong presence in the country. He sees ISIS Khorasan (IS-K) and the Taliban as being managed by Pakistan’s intelligence and Western allies, particularly the United States. Mr. Samadi asserts that Islamabad is using ISIS as a tool and commodity, and if the situation in Ukraine favors Moscow, the “ISIS project” in Afghanistan will be further reinforced.
It should be noted that 22 years ago, on September 11, 2001, 19 members of Al-Qaeda hijacked four passenger planes and crashed them into the Twin Towers of the World Trade Center in New York. As a result of these attacks, approximately three thousand people were killed, and thousands more were injured. In response to these attacks and the suppression of Al-Qaeda, the United States sent military forces to Afghanistan and overthrew the Taliban regime that had provided refuge to Al-Qaeda. However, the Taliban, after two decades and through a peace agreement with the United States, have returned to power and, according to reports from the United Nations Security Council, continue to host dozens of terrorist groups, including Al-Qaeda.
