Tajikistan shares a border of over 1,300 kilometers with Afghanistan, specifically with the provinces of Badakhshan, Takhar, and Kunduz. The shared border with Afghanistan has raised concerns for Tajikistan, which have been further amplified by the resurgence of the Taliban in Afghanistan, particularly their plans to relocate the Pakistani Taliban (TTP) to the northeast of Afghanistan.
While Tajikistan has expressed serious concerns about the presence of the Taliban in Afghanistan, other Central Asian countries have not taken as strong a stance as Tajikistan. These countries are seeking to establish a stronger relationship with the Taliban. However, Tajikistan not only differs in its approach but also expresses its concerns about the current situation in Afghanistan in every global and regional meeting. In response to the statements made by Tajik authorities, Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, the Taliban’s Deputy Prime Minister for Economic Affairs, accused Tajikistan of interfering in the internal affairs of Afghanistan during an interview with Al Jazeera in 2021. He emphasized that any continued interference would be met with a response from the Taliban.
While the Tajik embassy in Kabul remains open, the Afghan embassy in Tajikistan has not been handed over to the Taliban, unlike what some other Central Asian republics hastily did. Recently, a delegation from the Taliban group visited the Afghan General Consulate in the city of Khorog, Tajikistan, which garnered significant attention. Tajikistan provides support to leaders and members of the National Resistance Front of Afghanistan (NRF), who are present within its borders. Additionally, the tenth round of the Herat security talks, titled “Inclusive Political System: Patterns and Roadmap,” took place in Dushanbe, the capital city of Tajikistan, in 2022. The event spanned two days and was attended by over 100 representatives from countries around the world, including international and regional organizations. This meeting was particularly noteworthy as it marked the first time the talks were held outside of Afghanistan.
In April 2022, a four-hour clash occurred between Tajik border guards and the Taliban in the Shir Khan Kunduz port. Both parties utilized light and heavy weaponry, but fortunately, no casualties were reported. Additionally, on April 28 of the current year, a Tajik border commander was killed in a confrontation with drug smugglers on the shared border with Afghanistan.
Tajikistan’s concerns regarding the situation in Afghanistan can be summarized into two main points:
1- Lack of an All-Inclusive Government in Afghanistan
The establishment of an inclusive government is a significant demand made by Tajikistan to the Taliban, and it has been repeatedly emphasized by Tajik officials in various global and regional meetings. Many countries around the world have also raised this issue in different ways, but the Taliban has yet to pay attention to this demand. During the 76th session of the United Nations General Assembly in September 2021, Tajikistan’s President, Emomali Rahmon, highlighted the importance of establishing an inclusive government in Afghanistan, considering it a legitimate aspiration. President Rahmon stated that any government without the participation of Afghans would have disastrous consequences. Although President Rahmon apparently emphasizes the necessity of including all ethnic groups in the power structure, it is evident that he primarily refers to the Tajik population. This can be inferred from his claim that Tajiks constitute 46% of Afghanistan’s total population. Furthermore, during a meeting with Shah Mahmood Qureshi, the former Foreign Minister of Pakistan, in September 2021, President Rahmon expressed the view that Tajiks should hold significant positions in the Afghan government.
The tone of Tajik authorities grew more critical of the Taliban when the group launched aggressive attacks on Panjshir Province from multiple directions. President Rahmon, at the United Nations General Assembly meeting, voiced his concerns about the economic blockade imposed on Panjshir, condemning it as a “catastrophic violation” of human rights. On the night when Panjshir came under the Taliban’s military assault, President Rahmon awarded the Amir Ismail Samani badge to Burhanuddin Rabbani and Ahmad Shah Massoud on the occasion of the country’s 30th anniversary of independence. President Rahmon stated that the medal was awarded in recognition of their positive roles during Tajikistan’s internal conflicts between 1993 and 1996. However, the underlying purpose of this gesture was likely to show solidarity with the Tajik people, particularly those who were fighting against the Taliban in Panjshir.
Tajikistan’s decision to host leaders and members of the National Resistance Front (NRF), while other Central Asian republics are avoiding supporting anti-Taliban forces, may indicate that Tajikistan is not only in favor of Afghan Tajiks but also dissatisfied with the continuation of Taliban rule. It seems that Tajikistan seeks to strengthen the opposition against the Taliban by providing support to the NRF.
2- The Existence of Terrorist Groups in Northeast Afghanistan and Increased Activities
Tajikistan is deeply concerned about the presence and activities of terrorist groups in northeast Afghanistan. The activities of these groups not only concern Tajikistan but also pose a common threat to all Central Asian republics and Russia. Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan are particularly worried due to their shared border with Afghanistan, putting them directly at risk. Tajik officials have consistently raised their concerns about this issue in international and bilateral meetings with other countries. During the second meeting between the Central Asian Republics and the European Union held in Kyrgyzstan on June 3, 2023, the President of Tajikistan emphasized that Afghanistan, especially its northeastern region, has become a breeding ground for international terrorism. However, Taliban spokesperson Zabihullah Mujahid dismissed Tajikistan’s concerns about terrorist group activities in Afghanistan as baseless claims.
Tajikistan is specifically alarmed by the activities of two terrorist groups:
a. Jamaat Ansarullah: Also known as the “Tajikistani Taliban,” this group was established in 2010 by Amriddin Tabarov and is currently led by Dost Mohammad Mohammadov, known as Mahdi Arslan. Tajikistan regards this group as a terrorist organization and has banned its activities within its territory. It is believed to be an offshoot of al-Qaeda comprising Tajik militants. The group maintains links with the Islamic State for Iraq and Syria (ISIS) and has previously fought alongside them in Iraq and Syria. The connection between Jamaat Ansarullah and ISIS was established when a significant number of Central Asian citizens joined ISIS to participate in the conflicts in Iraq and Syria, subsequently aligning with this group upon their return. Presently, fighters from Jamaat Ansarullah are based in northeastern Afghanistan, particularly in Badakhshan Province, where they have not only evaded suppression by the Taliban but have also received support from them.
b. Tajikistan Taliban Movement: This group emerged following the Taliban’s return to power in Afghanistan and currently operates within the dominion of Badakhshan province. The movement aligns itself with Jamaat Ansarullah and is reportedly led by Mahdi Arslan. It is estimated to have approximately 200 members who have declared their goal of overthrowing President Rahmon. Both groups are situated in the northeastern region of Afghanistan, along the shared border with Tajikistan, and are said to have been assigned by the Taliban to serve as border guards in the watchtowers.
The presence of these groups in northeast Afghanistan poses a significant threat to the Central Asian republics, particularly Tajikistan, especially if they pledge allegiance to ISIS and provide a gateway for the group to expand into Central Asia. Tajikistan and other Central Asian republics are deeply concerned about this particular area.
Tajikistan has implemented various measures to safeguard itself against potential border threats. These steps include:
– On May 29 of this year, Tajikistan established two security checkpoints along its shared border with Afghanistan. Situated in Shahritus, Khatlon province, near the Afghan border, these checkpoints were inaugurated by the President of Tajikistan. It is reported that these checkpoints are equipped with advanced equipment.
– Tajikistan aims to create a security belt around Afghanistan. This concept was first proposed by President Rahmon during a United Nations meeting in 1998 and remained a topic of discussion until the formation of the new order in Afghanistan. However, it gradually lost momentum. With the Taliban’s return to power, the idea has regained significance and garnered renewed support in the region. President Rahmon reiterated this proposal during the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) meeting in 2021. Furthermore, the Foreign Minister of Tajikistan emphasized the necessity of establishing a security belt during the meeting of the representatives of the member countries of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) in New Delhi.
– Tajikistan and Russia have conducted multiple military exercises near the Afghanistan border, with the most recent exercise taking place on April 5, 2023, lasting for five days. In 2021, Russia dispatched 30 armored tanks to its military base in Tajikistan, demonstrating its commitment to assisting Tajikistan in addressing its security concerns along the shared border with Afghanistan.
Tajik authorities believe that the Taliban have shown a lack of sensitivity towards their country’s security concerns. In fact, the Taliban have not responded to the security concerns raised by any country, particularly Tajikistan, which is currently hosting opposition forces against the Taliban and adopting a firm stance against the group.