Taliban rule in Afghanistan poses a significant challenge and deadlock for both the region and the world. Most countries and international organizations express concerns over terrorist groups operating within Taliban territory. The EurAsian Times recently reported that 23 major terrorist groups operate freely in Afghanistan, threatening the interests of regional countries. Furthermore, the Atlantic Council has presented a conflict prevention mechanism proposal to the United Nations Secretary-General for the region and Afghanistan. The proposal highlights the prevalence of cross-border violence and suggests appointing a UN Special Envoy to prevent conflicts. It criticizes the ineffectiveness of efforts by regional countries and organizations. The proposed conflict prevention mechanism includes the appointment of a UN Special Envoy, the establishment of a UN Center for Preventive Diplomacy for the Afghanistan Region, and the creation of a regional advisory forum involving Afghanistan’s neighboring countries.
Since the Taliban took control of Afghanistan, widespread domestic and international concerns about the presence of terrorist groups in the country have been raised. Over the past nearly three years, most countries worldwide and the United Nations Security Council have repeatedly asked the Taliban to sever their ties with Al-Qaeda and other regional and global terrorist groups. However, the Taliban have continued to host terrorist groups, including Al-Qaeda, without complying with global demands.
In a recent report, the EurAsian Times stated that 23 terrorist groups are operating freely in Afghanistan. According to this media outlet, these terrorist groups are active in Afghanistan and are conducting operations against the interests of other countries.
The report names several groups, including Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), ISIS Khorasan (IS-K), Al-Qaeda, the East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM), the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU), Tehrik-i-Taliban Tajikistan (TTT), and the Baloch Raaji Aajoi Sangar (BRAS). Each of these groups encompasses various branches of other terrorist organizations.
According to the EurAsian Times, “The main leader of Al-Qaeda is in Afghanistan and is mobilizing its operational capabilities.” The report states, “Al-Qaeda and the Afghan Taliban in Afghanistan control the routes through which drugs are trafficked, generating billions of dollars.”
The newspaper also reported that the East Turkestan Islamic Movement uses Afghan territory to launch cross-border attacks against China. According to this media outlet, the Taliban supports the Uyghur separatist group, which challenges China’s interests in Xinjiang. The report indicates that the East Turkestan Islamic Movement has relocated its base from Badakhshan to Baghlan province and expanded its operational scope. According to the EurAsian Times, Tehrik-i-Taliban Tajikistan is affiliated with Al-Qaeda and loyal to the Taliban in Afghanistan. The report states that these forces are planning to overthrow the government of Tajikistan.
The Atlantic Council continues to propose a conflict prevention mechanism to the United Nations Secretary-General. According to this proposal, the risk of conflict between Afghanistan and its neighbors has increased following the Taliban’s takeover of the country and is currently at a critical point. According to this organization, the Taliban have escalated tensions and exacerbated long-standing issues such as conflicts over water usage throughout the semi-arid region. The existing efforts to prevent conflict in the war-torn neighborhood, the report suggests, are reactive and ineffective.
The Atlantic Council suggests that the United Nations should immediately establish a permanent mechanism to prevent conflict in the region surrounding Afghanistan. According to the proposal, this mechanism should be led by a UN Special Envoy to prevent the violent escalation of border and regional disputes, mitigate tension in the event of violence, and restore stability.
The proposal states that the region is insecure and unstable, and experiences cross-border violence. Experiences from other parts of the world indicate that conflict prevention mechanisms have been more effective in preventing regional crises than temporary and scattered responses.
The proposed Atlantic Council plan suggests that the conflict prevention mechanism for Afghanistan should include a UN Special Envoy, a UN Center for Preventive Diplomacy for the Afghanistan Region, and a regional advisory forum consisting of Pakistan, Iran, China, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan.
In this proposal, it is stated that the suggestions put forward are based on the independent assessment report of the United Nations Secretary-General regarding Afghanistan. The independent assessment, mandated by Resolution 2679, obliges the UN to adopt a coordinated and comprehensive approach towards Afghanistan. Prepared by Feridun Sinirlioğlu, the UN Coordinator, the assessment was presented to the UN Security Council in November 2023.
According to the proposal, based on the UN’s annual report (2023), a spectrum of terrorist groups has gained more maneuverability under Taliban rule. There are indications that Al-Qaeda is rebuilding its operational capabilities, and the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) is carrying out attacks in Pakistan with the support of the Taliban.
The Atlantic Council’s proposed plan, citing Russia, states that Taliban control in Afghanistan has strengthened terrorist organizations in the country. Moscow warns that the rising terrorist threats from Afghanistan endanger Central Asia, where Russian forces are stationed.
The independent assessment report on Afghanistan, requested by the UN Security Council, warns that the country “as a source of illegal drug trafficking, a base for transnational terrorism, and extremist ideologies, has the potential to create destabilizing effects and serve as a potential source of extensive migration and displacement.”
The authors of this proposal have stated that to date, there has been no effective international response to the security challenges in the region and Afghanistan.
Peace talks during the previous government’s tenure and holding meetings of the foreign ministers of neighboring countries were previous efforts that did not lead to achieving peace and stability in Afghanistan.
The proposal states that the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) are regional multilateral bodies that cover Afghanistan. However, due to mistrust among member countries, it has been proven that ineffective mechanisms have existed for regional security.
The Atlantic Council’s proposed plan highlights that most regional meetings have been episodic and have failed to address the fundamental crises and tensions in Afghanistan and its neighbors deeply. Moreover, there has been no specific plan to address collective issues such as the water crisis, land disputes, identity conflicts, and drugs.
The plan points out that some regional countries are economically and militarily weak, leading to dependence on stronger countries and reducing their autonomy to participate meaningfully in regional cooperation. According to the report, the complex network of insurgencies with transnational affiliations poses a serious challenge.
The report states that some governments covertly or overtly align with non-state armed actors, leading to instability and weakening collective efforts in regional cooperation. It emphasizes that Afghanistan’s neighbors believe there is a clear and strong need to address regional security issues related to Afghanistan, but they have failed to meet this need.
The Atlantic Council states that multilateral organizations such as the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), the African Union (AU), the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), the Southern African Development Community (SADC), and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) have failed to effectively harness the capacities of governments and non-state actors for peaceful regional management.
These concerns arise as the leaders of Iran and Pakistan, despite extensive engagement with the Taliban, have stated in a joint statement that the presence of terrorist groups in Afghanistan under the Taliban’s administration poses a serious threat to regional and global security.
You can read the Persian version of this daily report here:
فعالیت آزاد تروریستان در افغانستان؛ شورای آتلانتیک: منطقه در معرض خشونت فرامرزی قرار دارد