The transition from an international order to a novel one essentially signifies a move towards solidifying specific ideas, ideologies, or identities, relying on material components of power and the global positions of emerging or dissatisfied players. Indeed, by raising critics and opponents of the existing order, the discussion of change in the order and a transition period begins. Efforts to change the existing order can lead to the evolution or collapse of it.
If the constructive and preservative powers of the existing order can reconcile with opponents and reconstruct existing norms, the evolution of the order occurs. However, if opponents have the power to challenge the foundations of the existing order and replace values, norms, and parallel procedures, a change in the order occurs. Therefore, the transformation of the order, in addition to changes in power distribution, requires significant changes in common goals and values, rules of the game, and social structures of the international community.
Transitions usually involve a level of conflict between major states and the emergence of new actors proposing alternative orders. However, transitions can be gradual or sudden, violent or peaceful. The First and Second World Wars were more gradual and more violent transitions, while the sudden collapse of the bipolar order was less violent.
Current crises, conflicts, and wars demonstrate that the geopolitical landscape of the world has profoundly changed in recent years, and the competition of major powers in various regions once again plays a determining role in international developments. Recent trends and developments, from the Gaza war and the war in Ukraine to the competition between the United States and China, are examples of these fundamental changes in global geopolitics.
On this basis, the occurrence of a sustainable conflict between the West and its rivals – especially China, Russia, and the Islamic world – seems probable. With the deepening of global divides, a deep geopolitical restructuring and, consequently, a transition to a new global order is emerging.
Current major powers have common interests in maintaining some of the structures formed after World War II, such as the right of veto in the United Nations Security Council, international arms control regimes, etc., and their inclination is towards reconciliation in various issues rather than engagement. Instead, the competition among major powers to maintain or change the order in their favor takes place through expanding areas of influence and indirect or proxy conflicts in various regions, with long-term trends. The nature of competition between Western countries and Russia in the wars in Syria and Libya, as well as the war in Ukraine, is indicative of this issue.
Therefore, beyond the changes in the systemic level of the world order, which seems to be driven by the competition between China and America, significant regional changes are also possible.
While the formation of many regional countries is the result of the transition process in the international order and the collapse of the multipolar order before World War I and the bipolar order after World War II, regional changes naturally spread to the region.
Some changes in the region are now evident with the increasing role of China, especially after this country’s mediation in the agreement between Iran and Saudi Arabia. This Chinese move is considered a kind of coup in the West Asia region that could significantly impact regional order and the role of the United States in this region.
Therefore, while the likelihood of direct war between major powers to change the global order is evaluated as low, the increasing efforts of these powers to gain or maintain influence in various regions increase the likelihood of intensifying regional conflicts.