Badakhshan is currently witnessing a surge of anger and defiance among the populace against the oppressive regime of the Taliban. The protests began in the Darayim district and have now spread to the Argo district. While the initial cause was said to be the killing of two civilians by the Taliban, the slogans of the protesters indicate that the source of their anger and defiance goes beyond the deaths of two civilians. It seems they were awaiting an opportunity to express their anger openly against the Taliban regime. The killing of those two civilians provided them with the opportunity to chant slogans such as “Death to the Islamic Emirate.” and demand the Taliban’s withdrawal from Badakhshan province. These slogans are resolute and radical, showing no sign of compromise or conciliation. The people did not protest to return home after a brief hearing and obtaining empty promises from Taliban officials. If that were the case, slogans like “Death to the Islamic Emirate.” would not have been raised, nor would there have been demands for the departure of this group from Badakhshan province.
In the northeast of Afghanistan, where the majority of inhabitants are Tajiks and Uzbeks, but the Taliban, who are Pashtun-dominated, rule oppressively over them, you can see the people’s anger and resentment everywhere. This anger and defiance must eventually erupt through an excuse. The inhabitants of the northeastern provinces are forcibly ruled by a small ethnic minority that has only been able to govern the people through the force of guns and threats. The protesters in Badakhshan clearly state in their speeches that they are tired of the rule of “Kandaharis and Helmandis” and that they must return to their regions. It is not just Pashtun hegemony over the northeast that has caused tension. Poverty, unemployment, rampant corruption, and maximum suppression of citizens through various means of insult, humiliation, and coercion are other factors that have led people to protest against the Taliban to vent their anger.
Taliban Vulnerabilities in the Face of the People
The recent public protests in Badakhshan demonstrate that nearly three years into the Taliban’s rule, their vulnerabilities regarding the people have not only diminished but have also increased. Several points are highlighted below.
Ethnic Monopoly
Similar to their first stint in power in Afghanistan, the Taliban maintain an ethnic monopoly, even in a country with diverse ethnicities. If you are in Afghanistan and visit Taliban offices—even in provinces with minimal Pashtun presence—the heavy shadow of Pashtuns is palpable. The Taliban do not trust other ethnicities much in governance and insist on having someone from their ethnicity at the helm of affairs. But what about Tajiks, Hazaras, and Uzbeks, who constitute the overwhelming majority in that province? How would they perceive a Taliban administration and be willing to cooperate with it without coercion? This is a pervasive and universal question, but the Taliban do not provide an answer and do not seem to attach any importance to this issue. The protesters in Badakhshan province are currently leveraging this serious weakness of the Taliban to justify their protest.
Women’s Resistance
One of the most serious challenges to the Taliban has been the continuation of women’s resistance; a resistance that, despite severe Taliban suppression, persists and shows no sign of abating. One of the fundamental conditions for the international recognition of the Taliban regime is ensuring women’s rights—a demand that the Taliban have yet to meet. Ensuring women’s rights in the manner perceived by the Taliban is not a “minor domestic issue” that can simply be overlooked. Over the past nearly three years, the Taliban must have realized how ignoring women’s rights can be troublesome and challenging. In addition to lacking internal legitimacy, disregarding women’s rights can undermine the lifespan of the Taliban regime and even lead to its collapse. Over the past nearly three years, as the women’s protest movement against the Taliban has emerged, one of its serious weaknesses has been that it has borne the burden of protest against the Taliban alone. Now that public protests have begun in Badakhshan if they persist longer, the women’s movement will gain more energy and strength. The neglect of women’s rights is another weakness of the Taliban. Even now, women protesters, by welcoming the protesters in Badakhshan, are calling for the continuation of this trend.
Terrorist Groups
Instead of filling the void of domestic legitimacy through the establishment of an all-inclusive government and ensuring women’s rights, the Taliban have chosen to support terrorist groups and strengthen religious schools. They have achieved considerable success in this field so far: Afghanistan’s geographical expanse has become a haven for terrorist networks, and religious schools now promote extremism and violence more than ever before. However, contrary to the expectations the Taliban have from terrorist networks and religious schools, they can turn into a major threat to Taliban rule. Multiple terrorist networks currently operating in Afghanistan and religious schools are currently working to the benefit of the Taliban; however, they have the potential to be utilized by opposing terrorist networks such as ISIS. If the Taliban can infiltrate terrorist groups and extremist-promoting religious schools, why can’t ISIS do the same? Both ISIS Khorasan (IS-K) and the Taliban use similar religious cover and religious schools serve as recruitment grounds for both groups. This makes it easier for ISIS Khorasan (IS-K) to penetrate religious schools.
The increasing activities of religious schools and terrorist groups in Afghanistan pose a serious obstacle to the normalization of the Taliban’s relations with the world. The presence of international terrorist networks in Afghanistan is a topic that is constantly discussed and debated. If one day, international terrorist networks such as Al-Qaeda or ISIS Khorasan (IS-K) launch attacks from Afghanistan on international targets—a scenario with a high likelihood—the Taliban regime will face similar anger and resentment as it did after the September 11 attacks. The Taliban knew upon assuming power that they would likely face popular resistance, especially in the northeast. For this reason, from the outset, they made every effort to ensure key positions were held by Pashtuns and, in addition, stationed foreign terrorists and some foreign soldiers to prevent potential uprisings by indigenous people. Now, if, in the event of intensified protests, foreign terrorists target protesters, it will further enrage the populace, thus paving the way for the collapse of the Taliban regime.
Self-Destructive Tendencies
Alongside the above factors, the Taliban, like any other terrorist network, possess a high capacity for self-destruction. Even if no serious challenger emerges on Afghanistan’s political horizon, the Taliban will still implode and thus, pave the way for its collapse. Look at the stubbornness of this group in the face of repeated global demands for the formation of an all-inclusive government and respect for women’s rights. This ideological obstinacy will one day backfire on the Taliban and may even lead to their demise. All terrorist groups, when they rely on the crutch of power, due to the repeated commission of crimes and display of ideological obstinacy, soon fade into oblivion. These groups are created to perpetuate crisis and conflict, not governance. Even if you hand them a country on a silver platter, they will not have much stability in politics and, ultimately, will surrender their place to more moderate forces. The Taliban’s power of self-destruction will become more apparent when they face a force to compete against. If public protests expand to the extent that the Taliban perceive it as a serious force against them, they will become even more radical than before and resort to more crimes and creating disasters, which will only result in isolation and distancing from the global community.
The inability of Repressive Policies to Suppress the People
If popular protests continue to spread with the slogan “Death to the Islamic Emirate” to other districts of Badakhshan or other northeastern provinces, it could be seen as a turning point in the current protest movement, and even if it subsides after a while, its significance would not diminish. In any case, the protests in Badakhshan show that the Taliban’s policy of repression has not succeeded in completely suppressing the people, despite all its severity and intensity. The simmering anger and rebellion in Darayim and Argo indicate the failure and defeat of the policy of repression against the people. The more this policy is applied, the more vulnerable and fragile it becomes. The latest example is the protests in Badakhshan. The more the Taliban try to suppress protesters locally and silence their voices, the more widespread the people’s anger becomes, and it may even spread to other provinces.
However, what matters most is for the protests to remain persistent. If they subside, hopes will turn to despair, and repression will become even more severe. In other words, the people of Darayim and Argo should not retreat. If they make this mistake, they have handed the reins to themselves because the Taliban’s repression machine will come knocking at their doors very soon, and then it will burn everything down. So, there is no turning back. If people return home, the Taliban will pursue them to their homes. This is a serious warning, and the protesters must take this historical lesson seriously.
Nevertheless, even if the popular protests in Badakhshan subside, they still have many lessons for the Taliban. One of these lessons is that the patience of the people will eventually run out, and the anger of the masses will ultimately overwhelm any self-serving, repressive regime. The Taliban regime may frighten people in the short term with suicide bombers and the relocation of foreign and alien terrorists, but historical experience shows that when the people’s anger and resentment overflow, they cannot be contained by guns, tanks, or suicide bombers. People’s anger is like a terrible flood that, once unleashed, sweeps away everything in its path.
Mao Zedong said, “A spark can start a fire.” He is referring to that revolutionary moment that appears unexpectedly and can even initiate a great political upheaval. This is only possible if political forces possess great intelligence and strategic foresight and lead the people’s uprising to the destruction of the old, worn-out system. However, if this revolutionary moment is not used correctly, it can lead to a much more catastrophic situation, benefiting the repressive regime and harming the protesters. It is still too early to judge the future of the people’s protests in Badakhshan accurately; however, given the serious weaknesses of the opposing political forces to the Taliban, there is concern that the people’s anger and uproar may end without the slightest achievement, followed by a new wave of stifling repression.
You can read the Persian version of this analysis here:
