In two months’ time, Turkey will hold its 13th presidential and 28th parliamentary elections on May 14th, 2023. Approximately 55 million eligible voters will cast their ballots for the candidate of their choice. The elected president and 600 members of parliament will serve a five-year term. Turkish citizens living abroad can vote for their desired candidates at 123 representative offices in 60 countries.
Due to the unprecedented economic crisis, monetary inflation, and the recent deadly earthquake, this election is particularly challenging, sensitive, and of utmost importance for the people of Turkey. The republican system in Turkey was established on October 29, 1923, following the defeat of the Ottoman Empire and the conclusion of the First World War, under the leadership of Mustafa Kemal Atatürk. Since then, considerable modifications have been made to the law of the secular republic.
In February 2017, the ruling party made a significant change to the Republican system by transitioning from a parliamentary system to a presidential system and amending 15 articles of the constitution. This gave a great deal of power to Erdogan, granting him the right to veto the decisions of the parliament, appoint government officials such as judges and university presidents, and serve as the commander-in-chief.
Now that the 28th round of parliamentary elections is taking place, the representative of parliament has limited powers. Political experts believe that the alteration of the parliamentary system of Turkey has damaged the foundations of secular democracy, as well as increased authoritarianism and the concentration of power. This can be seen in the repression of civil liberties and freedom of expression.
The Republic of Turkey has made significant progress; despite the numerous challenges it has faced. Observers and proponents alike are keeping a close eye on the situation, and the media, which reflects public opinion, is publishing the conversations of citizens in the streets and markets. Some have expressed dissatisfaction with the current state of affairs and the economic crisis, claiming that Erdogan has been in power for two decades and that is enough. Others, however, believe that no one other than Erdogan can effectively manage Turkey’s situation, and thus his presence is beneficial to the people.
Coalitions
The commencement of the election campaign has seen an expansion in the formation of political parties. Currently, two major coalitions, the Nation Alliance and the Republic, have been established for the election contests. The Nation Alliance, also known as the Table of Six, is comprised of opposition parties of the government, which have united with various intellectual secular tendencies, Islamic, and liberal, with the aim of ending the power of the ruling party and restoring democracy to Turkey.
The coalition nominated Kemal Kılıçdaroglu, the leader of the Republican People’s Party, the largest opposition party which professed to uphold Atatürk’s policies with secular tendencies against the government.
The Good Party, led by Meral Akşener, has recently been established and has gained considerable popularity among Turks. It was excluded from the “Table of Six” due to its opposition to the candidacy of Kemal Kılıçdaroglu and suggested that either Imamoglu, the mayor of Istanbul, or Mansur Yavaş, the mayor of Ankara, both of whom are members of the “Republican People’s Party,” should be elected. However, with the mediation of these two mayors, it rejoined the coalition.
The Democracy and Progress Party, led by Ali Babajan, and the Future Party, led by Davutoglu, are also active. Both leaders were formerly influential members of Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party, but have since separated due to internal opposition and the government’s unidirectional policy. The People’s Democratic Party, led by Goltkin Oysal, and the Happiness Party, led by Temel Karamollaoglu, are also part of this coalition.
The Republican People’s Party, comprising the Justice and Development Party, led by Recep Tayyip Erdogan with Islamic leanings, and the Nationalist Movement Party, led by Baghche Lee’s government, has been in power for the past 20 years.
This coalition has incorporated several other minor parties into the People’s Alliance in order to remain in power. The need for a coalition was made apparent when a formidable opposition was formed, and the government revised its domestic and foreign policies for a period of one year in an effort to bring about reforms in various areas. Unfortunately, this did not have the desired outcome.
The government of Erdogan experienced danger when it lost three major economic and political cities, including Istanbul, Ankara, and Izmir, in the 2018 municipal elections. Candidates supported by the government were defeated by their opponents by a considerable margin of votes. Erdogan did not deny the public discontent of the period due to the government and the economic crisis that was impacting the people. Instead, he declared that he would take lessons from his errors and rectify them.
The People’s Democratic Party, the third largest pro-Kurdish party, is renowned for its defense of minorities, women, and homosexuals, and its fight against injustice and oppression. In the last parliamentary elections, the party won 59 seats, and is particularly popular among Kurds. In recent years, however, many members and the leader of this party, Salahuddin Demirtaş, have been brutally repressed and imprisoned by the Erdogan government, who accused them of terrorist activities and cooperation with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, which is waging an armed struggle against the government. The People’s Democratic Party has denied any cooperation with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party and terrorist activities, and has described the accusations as the government’s conspiracies against Kurdish minorities.
Beker Şahin, the Attorney General of Turkey, has petitioned the Constitutional Court to annul the activities of this party, citing that it exacerbates the divisions between the two nationalities. Critics, however, contend that if the activity of this party is terminated, its members will cast their ballots for the government’s opponents.
Should the upcoming elections between the ruling party and the opposition parties require a second round, it is likely that the Kurds and other government rivals will be victorious.
Recession
The Turkish economy is largely dependent on both domestic and foreign investments, as well as tourism. The Covid-19 pandemic, the war in Ukraine, and the sanctions imposed by the European Union and the United States due to the Black Sea Oil and Gas have all contributed to the economic crisis in the country. Additionally, the decrease in the bank interest rate, the rise in inflation, the lack of monetary support, and the increase in the International Monetary Fund’s debt have all caused an unprecedented devaluation of the lira. Economists believe that the primary cause of inflation and the depreciation of the lira is the government’s interference and manipulation of monetary and financial policies outside of rational frameworks.
The economic crisis in Turkey is a major factor that will significantly influence the results of the upcoming elections. People are concerned about the rising cost of living and fuel, the decrease in purchasing power, poverty, and unemployment.
A survey conducted by the Metropol Institute on the eve of the elections has revealed that the country’s economic crisis and monetary inflation are both above 80%. The government’s attempts to prevent the devaluation of the lira have been unsuccessful. In an effort to mitigate the financial losses caused by foreign currency exchange, the government has increased the wages of civil servants and workers, reduced commercial property taxes, and provided cash aid; however, these measures have not been sufficient to control the dire economic situation.
Despite all of this, Turkey has experienced significant economic growth in the housing, transportation, banking, and services sectors over the past 20 years. In terms of public welfare, health, and services, this growth is higher than that of any other growing country in the region.
Devastating Earthquakes
On February 6th of this year, two powerful earthquakes (measuring 7.8 and 7.5 on the Richter scale) struck southeastern Turkey and parts of Syria. Despite the passage of nearly two months, the injured have yet to recover, homes have been destroyed, and life has not returned to normal in the affected areas. The Turkish government has declared the earthquake the disaster of the century, resulting in 50,000 fatalities and 160,000 injuries, as well as causing more than $100 billion in financial damage.
At the outset, this unfortunate event was not taken seriously, resulting in aid not reaching the earthquake-affected areas in a timely manner and the number of casualties increasing due to the cold winter. The people in the affected areas are angry, and while the government and international community have provided a great deal of assistance, homelessness and unemployment remain unresolved issues. The government has promised to rebuild damaged houses and return them to their owners within a year, which the opponents of Erdogan’s government have labeled as nothing more than an election slogan. In response, the current government has suggested that those who are biased are more concerned with their own interests than with the tragedy. Experts believe that if the opponents unite and a comprehensive plan is created, the recent earthquake and current economic crisis could bring an end to Erdogan’s two-decade rule.
Refugees
As the election approaches, the issue of asylum seekers and immigrants has been brought to the forefront of the news. According to Cumhuriyet newspaper on March 18, Kemal Kılıçdaroglu, the candidate of the Nation Alliance, declared in Hatay that if he were to win the election, he would implement strict policies against immigration and asylum seekers, so that no one could easily enter the country. He criticized the government‘s policies on refugees and immigrants, asserting that without placing the stigma of racism on the Turkish people, he would deport all Syrian immigrants to their country within a year, so that the Turkish people could live peacefully and freely. Many parties have discussed deporting asylum seekers in order to gain votes, while more than five million Syrians, Afghans, and citizens of other countries live in Turkey legally and illegally.
Recently, the government has been carrying out forced deportations of many illegal asylum seekers. In addition, the Immigration Department has made it more difficult to obtain residency cards and UN visas in order to deter further asylum seekers from entering. Simultaneously, some extremist groups have been exhibiting increased levels of discrimination, as they do not wish for refugees to be present in their land. The government is expected to repatriate one million Syrian refugees to their homeland.
This issue has its origin in economics. Illegal immigrants, particularly those from Afghanistan and Pakistan, work long hours yet receive minimal wages, which has largely addressed issues related to the lack of workers and kept the factories operational. Conversely, Turks are not willing to work under such circumstances.
In the past two decades, Erdogan has implemented policies that have encouraged tourism, facilitated the acquisition of citizenship, and allowed for the purchase of housing, as well as legalizing long–term residence. This has caused disruption to the demographic balance and has been met with criticism from those opposed to the government. Currently, citizens of Ukraine, Georgia, and Iran are able to enter Turkey without a visa.
In order to achieve this, the Erdogan government and the opposing political parties have included the topic of asylum seekers and immigrants in their electoral manifestos, which has caused worry among immigrants.
Challenges and Plans
In order to preserve his two–decade–long rule, Erdogan made a final effort to assuage the public‘s discontentment with the slow response to the areas affected by the earthquake. He promised to reconstruct these areas within a year, as well as to bring economic prosperity through large-scale projects such as the Toki housing project, the construction of a nuclear power plant to generate electricity, and the Istanbul Canal over the next five years.
Following the unsuccessful coup in 2016, the Erdogan government began to repress and detain those opposed to the government, including supporters of Fethullah Gulen and Kurds. They were accused of terrorist activities and thousands of people were incarcerated, leading to criticism from human rights organizations and opposition parties. In terms of foreign relations, it has improved its ties with Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Iran in order to reduce inflation and the economy‘s dependence on the dollar through investments from these countries. With regards to Ukraine, despite being a member of NATO, it adopted a neutral stance unlike its military allies, and by mediating between the Russians and the Ukrainians, it laid the groundwork for the export of wheat to the world through Turkey.
Experts suggest that relations between Turkey and America and Europe will improve once Erdogan is no longer in power, due to his purchase of the S–400 defense system from Russia, military operations against the Kurds, and oil and gas extraction from the Black Sea.
The upcoming elections will be a major, delicate, and critical trial among the difficulties faced by the government and opposition parties. Simultaneously, national and international observers have noted that due to the tight competition and the significance of the matter for the internal and external backers of the contenders, internal and external interventions have raised numerous worries about the lack of transparency and potential electoral fraud. If the result of the election is determined by the actual vote of the people and the embodiment of democracy, it will be advantageous to the people of Turkey and the world.