The United Nations is set to hold a second joint session with other countries regarding addressing the crisis in Afghanistan. It has been announced that this session, taking place over two days in the city of Doha, the capital of Qatar, will occur on the 17 of February. The first Doha conference on Afghanistan, attended by António Guterres, the Secretary-General of the United Nations, was held earlier this year in May. That conference was initiated in the absence of the Taliban. The first session garnered significant attention, notably when Amina Mohammad, Deputy Secretary-General of the United Nations, claimed before its commencement during her speech at Princeton University in the United States, that the recognition of the Taliban was included in its agenda. The reactions to her statements were swift and led to amendments to the conference agenda.
The second Doha conference has attracted attention because, unlike in the past, the Taliban have shown little enthusiasm for participating and continually demand explanations from the hosting entities. This is despite the group’s eagerness for meetings with foreign officials and participation in regional and international conferences. Previously, if a conference on Afghanistan was held without inviting the Taliban, they would declare its decisions null and void. Perhaps the Moscow format conference, initiated by Russia in this regard, serves as a clear example. Despite reluctance and significant resistance, the Taliban succeeded in participating in it on two occasions. In conferences initiated in the past two and a half years in cities such as Tashkent and Samarkand, Uzbekistan, concerning Afghanistan, the Taliban have lobbied sufficiently to the extent that they have managed to obtain the host’s consent. The group has even participated in conferences where the guest has not been formally honored by the host.
Previously, the Taliban would eagerly break protocol to meet a foreign official or participate in a less significant conference. However, now they display pride and reluctance to participate in the Doha conference, which is significant compared to other gatherings, causing discomfort to the hosts and continually seeking more information. Raza Otunbayeva, Head of the Deputy Office of the United Nations in Afghanistan (UNAMA), has invited some Taliban officials to participate in the Doha conference. Thomas Nicholson, the EU Special Representative for Afghanistan, also visited Kabul and urged the Taliban to attend the conference. Firdoun Sinirlioglu, the UN Special Coordinator for Afghanistan Affairs, also stayed in Kabul for several days and invited the Taliban to participate in the conference. However, the group has not yet announced its final position regarding participation in the Doha conference.
The question arises: Why are the Taliban showing less interest in participating in the Doha conference compared to the past?
1- The Taliban expect to participate in the Doha conference as representatives of a legitimate and accepted government for the world, not as a group still on the UN and some countries’ blacklist. In other conferences, they have been invited as a group rather than a government. Now, the Taliban expects to be respected as an independent and legitimate government in international conferences. For example, the Taliban were embittered by their participation in the first conference held in February 2022 in Norway because women’s rights activists, who were guests at the conference, challenged the representatives of this group. Mawlawi Amir Khan Mutaqi, the Taliban’s Foreign Minister who attended the conference, was forced to contact Kabul during the discussions and inquire about the reason for the detention of protesting women. The Samarkand conference, held by the Uzbek government in Afghanistan in late April of the current year, did not respect the Taliban delegation. Although Mutaqi went to Samarkand, he did not get permission to attend the public session. Even in the group photo of the attendees released on the final day of the conference, there was no sign of Mutaqi. In that conference, Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian addressed Mutaqi in an undiplomatic tone, stating, “Mr. Mullah Mutaqi! We have been waiting for the formation of an all-inclusive government for 21 months.” Mutaqi’s presence at a recent conference held in Tehran to discuss the Gaza war also made headlines because he was the only guest who was not allowed to use the flag. Later, the Taliban’s national television, under their administration, released an image of Mutaqi with the Taliban’s white flag placed in front of him during his speech, a trick that amused others. Resorting to such deception in an image demonstrates the importance of Taliban acceptance as a government in international conferences for this group and its supporters.
The Taliban’s expectation from the Doha conference is that not only such incidents do not occur, but they should also be treated as a government. It is said that those who are supposed to represent women and civil society have been selected in a way that will not disturb the Taliban representatives as they did in the past. Rena Amiri, the US Special Representative for Afghan Women, and Heather Barr, the Women’s Rights Watch official, have also stated that it is important to pay attention to who should represent women at the conference. However, in the past, those who have represented Afghan women in international conferences have been those whose positions were acceptable to the Taliban.
2- The possibility of appointing a UN special envoy for the Taliban is a cause for concern. Fereydoun Sinirlioglu’s assessment of the situation in Afghanistan under the Taliban administration has prompted the recommendation for the appointment of a special envoy. The UN Security Council, considering the contents of the aforementioned report, compelled the Secretary-General of the organization to appoint a special envoy for Afghanistan through Resolution 2721 (2023), a move that has been explicitly opposed by the Taliban. China and Russia also abstained from voting on that resolution. The Islamic Republic of Iran, in line with the Taliban, has also opposed it and considers the introduction of a special envoy to be detrimental to Afghanistan.
During the Doha conference regarding Sinirlioglu’s assessment of the situation in Afghanistan, comprehensive discussions might take place. Therefore, it is not unexpected for the issue of appointing a special envoy to be finalized there. According to some reports, discussions in the Doha conference may revolve around who, with what qualifications, and from which country should be appointed as the special envoy. If this happens, the Taliban and countries aligned with this group will stand against the action taken and will have no choice but to reject the conference resolution. If the Taliban were to be informed in advance that such an event is to take place at the Doha conference, it is evident that they will not participate.
3- The absence of anti-Taliban factions in the upcoming conference presents an opportunity for the Taliban. It is evident that the UN has not invited and will not invite forces opposed to the Taliban because this entity is more inclined towards mediating with the Taliban rather than anti-Taliban factions. This is while some anti-Taliban fronts have repeatedly demanded participation in the Doha conference, a voice that has gone unheard. Women and civil society seem to be invited to prevent protests. From preliminary meetings and discussions, it is apparent that human rights and women’s rights are on the sidelines of the conference agenda rather than in its main text. The absence of anti-Taliban factions at the conference has caused the Taliban to become more arrogant and demanding towards the hosts. Whereas if political and military movements opposed to the Taliban were invited to the conference, this group would refrain from grandstanding and would settle for less. The Taliban do this to pursue scoring points: seizing Afghanistan’s seat at the United Nations and canceling the introduction of a special envoy plan. Just a few days ago, when Mawlawi Abdul Kabir, the Taliban’s Deputy Political Leader, met with the head of UNAMA, he demanded the immediate realization of these two demands.
What has sharpened the Taliban’s appetite is Qatar’s hosting of the conference; a country that values the Taliban and this group is also obedient to it. According to Reuters, Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, the Prime Minister and Foreign Minister of Qatar, met with Mullah Hibatullah Akhundzada, the Taliban leader, as the first foreign official in May of the current year in the city of Kandahar. The Taliban have used Qatar as a platform to leap to the peak of power. Qatar has been hosting this group for consecutive years, and it continues to do so. The United States non-deviation from the path of engagement with the Taliban is the result of Qatar’s lobbying. Qatar, as the host of the conference, may intervene in its conduct, content, and potential outcomes. Therefore, the Taliban are striving to score the most points, not to settle for less. If the second UN conference for Afghanistan were held in a country other than Qatar, the Taliban’s perspective might have been different, and their expectations might have been lower.
