It seems plausible to largely agree with the assertion that Russia’s attack on Ukraine is capable of instigating changes in Europe’s security order. Nevertheless, as we approach nearly two years and a few months since the onset of the war in Ukraine, signs of these changes have become apparent. The extent to which these changes will endure, or be supplanted by other developments in the future, increasingly hinges on the outcome of the war. The most significant changes witnessed under the influence of Russia’s war against Ukraine can be examined at two levels: the European and the broader international system. While recognizing the Middle East’s importance as a crucial region, efforts have been made to discuss the repercussions of the Ukraine war in this area as well.
A: Europe
Given the reinforcement of NATO or the shift towards defensive independence, if we observe more significant impacts in Europe following the outbreak of war, it’s entirely natural. However, geography still plays a crucial factor in the extent and scope of crises’ influence, and hence, due to Ukraine’s location within Europe, the effects of this war will be most keenly felt by European countries, ranging from refugee crises to the possibility of the conflict spilling beyond Ukraine’s borders. Yet, it’s no secret that any changes in Europe’s political and security order, driven by reasons such as the continent’s transformative events and interdependencies among different regions, hold the potential to impact the international system. In this regard, the most significant impact of the Ukraine war on Europe should be considered the increase in European coordination and unity in countering the Russian threat. European countries, shortly after Russia attacked Ukraine, engaged in unprecedented, coordinated actions against Moscow, resulting in a series of highly impactful diplomatic and economic sanctions against Russia, as well as significant military and economic aid to Ukraine. Despite criticisms regarding the ineffectiveness or time-consuming nature of sanctions, the lack of sanctioning of Russian oil and gas, and Europe and America’s disregard for Zelensky’s requests to establish a no-fly zone, an examination of Western actions indicates efforts by Europe and America to involve themselves effectively in the Ukraine war, without it leading to conditions directly pitting the West against Russia.
Another issue regarding the impact of the Ukraine war on Europe worth mentioning is NATO’s future in the Green Continent. It appears that the immediate result of Russia’s military action should strengthen the position of this organization among European countries.
This matter is especially significant considering that NATO’s performance in maintaining the collective defense policy among some European countries, like France, has faced criticism in recent years. Emmanuel Macron has spoken of NATO’s brain death. A significant portion of Macron’s criticism is directed towards American behavior under the leadership of Trump and the view that such behaviors, especially regarding America’s withdrawal from Syria and Turkey’s military operations in the country, should provide a basis for increased European military cooperation and greater autonomy from the United States. However, whether Russia’s military invasion of a European country will tilt European sentiments more towards strengthening NATO and greater alignment with it or reinforce existing motivations for European defensive autonomy against America will likely require more time. Nevertheless, what we have witnessed so far is increased coordination and reinforcement of NATO in Europe rather than a shift towards defensive independence. Although perhaps in the future, Europeans may find a balance and synthesis between these two ideas, for now, Russia’s actions contrary to the Kremlin’s intentions have led to increased anxiety and caution among non-NATO European countries regarding joining this security organization, and conversely, spurred efforts to join NATO as quickly as possible.
B: International System: Weakened Russia and Strengthened China
On the international stage, the most significant impact of Russia’s attack on Ukraine must be seen in the weakening of Russia’s economy, the transformation of the country into a secondary power, its departure from the league of major powers, and the reduction of cooperation levels between the West and Russia. If we consider Putin’s primary motivation for attacking Ukraine as an attempt to assert Russia’s power and compel the West to accept the country into the ranks of major powers, it seems that Russia’s incursion into Ukrainian territory has yielded results entirely contrary to this goal.
Another important impact of this war should be examined concerning China. Under the influence of coordinated actions by Western countries against Russia, the possibility of similar behavior by China towards Taiwan in the short term should be considered a subject with a low probability of occurrence. However, it can be expected that China will increasingly incline towards enhancing its military power in strategic areas such as missile capabilities, artificial intelligence, naval power, and atomic power.
C: Middle East
Reassessing relations with Russia or continuing cooperation and the future of Middle Eastern countries’ relationship with Russia are among the topics influenced by the Ukraine war. Before Russia’s military attack, Arab countries and Israel had prioritized expanding relations with Russia due to a common perception regarding the United States’ approach in the Middle East. However, now, after Russia attacked Ukraine, it is unclear in which direction the future of these relations will proceed. Nevertheless, the heightened tensions between Russia and its Middle Eastern allies over Ukraine suggest that this war will be capable of creating friction between Russia and its Middle Eastern allies.
It seems that the future of Middle Eastern countries’ relations with Russia will be heavily influenced by the following issues:
- The success or failure of Russia in the war with Ukraine;
- The fate of nuclear negotiations and the approach of Russia and the United States regarding Iran’s nuclear program;
- The type of relationship America maintains with Arab countries and Israel regarding their concerns about Iran.
Russia’s failure and inability to achieve its primary objectives in the war with Ukraine, by turning this country into a secondary power with an economy much weaker than what we currently see, will compel Middle Eastern countries to reassess their relations with Russia as a balancing force against America. On the other hand, if Russia, driven by motives such as pressuring America in the Middle East, inclines Iran towards increasing its activities in the region, or tends towards reducing its cooperation with the West regarding Iran’s nuclear issue, we are likely to witness Arab countries and Israel turning away from Russia and reverting to America. This issue, however, is heavily influenced by the extent of America’s interest and efforts to address the desires and concerns of these countries regarding Iran, as we have seen in recent months with the United States’ presence in the Israel-led six-party talks, which is deeply affected by the level of interest and effort of the United States to respond to the demands and concerns of these countries regarding Iran.
