Recently, Ahmad Massoud, the leader of the National Resistance Front, traveled to Russia to meet with Sergey Mironov, Parliamentary leader of A Just Russia Incumbent. The current Afghanistan situation and ways to overcome it formed the focus of the dialogue between the parties. According to reports, Mironov has said that in the fall of this year, a meeting about Afghanistan will be held in the Russian Parliament, where Ahmad Massoud will be one of the speakers.
Besides this meeting, Aleksei Shevtsov, the deputy of the Russian Security Council, considered the current situation in Afghanistan as disturbing the stability in Central Asia. He stated that Russia’s security challenges in the countries of Central Asia are more than those of Afghanistan. He also claimed that the return of stability in Afghanistan will take decades and Moscow is interested in accelerating this process.
Moreover, Maria Zakharova, the spokesperson of the Russian Foreign Ministry, following Massoud’s visit to this country, reiterated the establishment of an inclusive government in Afghanistan: “Moscow calls on the Taliban and representatives of other ethnic groups to enter into dialogue in order to form a truly inclusive government, intensify the fight against terrorism, drugs and ensure human rights.”
Considering the above points, the question is whether Russia is in a dilemma between the Taliban and the National Resistance Front (NRF)?
- The Choice of Russia Is the Taliban
So far, no sign can be found that indicates the strained relationship between Moscow and the Taliban. Conversely, apparently everything seems to be going well between the parties. Lately, there hasn’t even been any verbal tension. In the middle of July of this year, Dmitry Zhirnov, the Russian Ambassador to Afghanistan, met with Mullah Amir Khan Muttaqi, the Taliban Acting Minister of Foreign Affairs and invited him to participate in the “Moscow Format” meeting that may be held in the coming months, indicating the warmth of the relationship between the parties. This is despite the fact that the Taliban was not invited to the previous Moscow Format Meeting held in November 2022. More importantly, Massoud met with a representative of the Moscow Parliament, not a government official. Considering the closed political system that Russia has, the effect of the satisfaction and lack of satisfaction of the government executives in the field cannot be ignored.
Hince, Massoud’s meeting with the Parliamentary leader of A Just Russia Incumbent cannot necessarily be interpreted as the country’s support for the anti-Taliban front. For example, Ali Maisam Nazary, the head of foreign relations of the NRF, had a discussion with the deputy and members of the French Parliament in October 2021. In June of this year, he engaged in a meeting held by the Standing Committee on Foreign Affairs and International Development of the Canadian Parliament. Additionally, a delegation from the resistance front had a meeting with the American delegation in January of this year. However, these meetings did not seek the support of the mentioned countries for the resistance front.
Russia is also subject to the same rule, and by hosting Massoud, it wants to challenge? the Taliban because the interactions of this group recently may have caused concerns for Moscow and its allies. U.S. President Joe Biden’s statements about a secret understanding with the Taliban to kill Ayman al-Zawahiri, the top leader of the al-Qaeda network was not soothing for Moscow. Also, the recent meeting of Taliban representatives with the American delegation in Doha was distressing for Moscow. More importantly, the settlement of Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) members in northern Afghanistan poses a threat to Russia’s allies in Central Asia. Considering these concerns, Moscow’s hosting of Massoud can be seen as a soft reaction of this country against the Taliban.
Perhaps, this is the first time that Moscow, as a traditional ally of the anti-Taliban front, hosts Massoud. This can be in response to the criticisms that are raised against countries such as Russia, India and Iran. Many advise these countries not to invest all their efforts in the Taliban’s due to the fact that they were supporters of the anti-Taliban front in the past. This is the reason why Sergey Mironov called the current resistance against terrorism in Afghanistan the continuation of the struggle of Ahmad Shah Massoud, the former commander of the anti-Taliban front.
- Maintaining Balance is Arduous
The relationship between Russia and Western governments, particularly the United States, is extremely tense. Presently, the United States and Russia are fighting each other on the battlefield indirectly, thus making it difficult and even impossible for the Taliban and the NRF to maintain the balance between the two countries. Russia’s hosting of Massoud shows that the Taliban have not been able to maintain a balance in their interaction with Washington and Moscow. Now, if Russia supports the resistance front, the United States will definitely support the Taliban more, which will cause more damage to Afghanistan. It is explicit that if the United States enters the field to recognize the Taliban, it will attract many Western countries and the region. This is something that the Taliban have acknowledged many times and considered this country to be the cause of the not recognition of their administration. Specifically, earlier, Sher Mohammad Abbas Stanekzai, Taliban’s Political Deputy of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, said in an interview with Tolo TV: “If the United States recognizes the Islamic Emirate and reopens its embassy in Afghanistan, other countries will officially recognize the Islamic Emirate.”
- Russia Is Weak
It is accurate that Russia is a great power and its role is prominent in the United Nations Security Council, and it is considered the second military power in the world following the United States. Presently, this country is not able to support the NRF due to being stuck in the Ukrainian war. It is not known whether Moscow will overcome the war in Ukraine safely or not. It appears very unlikely that Russia will create a new front of the Taliban against it. Basically, Russia deems that engaging with the Taliban is the wish of the United States, thus avoiding to fulfill its rival’s wish.
Moscow will persist its demand which is the creation of an inclusive government in Afghanistan. It is difficult for Moscow to recognize the Taliban Emirate with this form and nature. This country considers the presence of its traditional allies in power important. Not only for now, but also in the past Moscow emphasized this issue. For example, Rangin Dadfar Spanta, former Afghan National Security Advisor, in his book “Afghanistan Politics: A Narrative from Within” writes that Russian President Vladimir Putin, in a meeting with Hamid Karzai, the former president of Afghanistan, complained about the absence of his allies in the government of the time, specifically mentioning the name of Marshal Abdul Rashid Dostum, the leader of the National Islamic Movement of Afghanistan.
Currently, Moscow officials see the interest of their country in continuing the policy of interaction with the Taliban, not supporting the anti-Taliban front. As long as Moscow’s interests are not directly threatened by the Taliban or by terrorist groups based in Afghanistan, Russia will not step on the path of opposition to the Taliban. There is no doubt that Russia has made the Taliban bitter by hosting Massoud, but it will compensate by hosting the Taliban in the Moscow format meeting.
Read this article in Farsi here.
