The Taliban’s transfer of Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) forces to the northern provinces of Afghanistan, as agreed upon with Pakistan, has resulted in numerous national issues and exacerbated ethnic divisions. However, this development also poses a regional alarm for the security of Central Asian countries. With the resurgence of the Taliban, the security in Central Asian nations has become increasingly fragile and unstable, rendering them more vulnerable than ever. Compounding this fragility is the engagement of power-balancing forces in Central Asia in the ongoing war in Ukraine, diverting Russia’s energy and attention away from the escalating threat of fundamentalism and terrorism.
The extension of the war to the borders of Central Asia remains a grave threat due to the region’s potential to become a hub for fundamentalist groups and a volatile area. Over the past three decades, several radicalistic groups have operated in this region, establishing close ties with fundamentalist groups in South Asia (Afghanistan and Pakistan). The re-emergence of the Taliban in Afghanistan has had a profound impact on the security landscape of Central Asia, pushing the region dangerously close to chaos. The transfer of TTP fighters to northern Afghanistan is not the sole cause for concern; the presence of the Islamic State for Iraq and Syria (ISIS) and their attempts to expand their influence in Central Asia further complicate the situation.
According to reports from various research institutes on the security of Central Asia, the most serious threat to the region’s security stems from ISIS. This threat has intensified following the Taliban’s reemergence in August 2021. However, the primary concern is not the Taliban or their close ally, Al-Qaeda, but the regional affiliate of the Islamic State-Khorasan (ISS-K), which operates primarily in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Although ISIS initially emerged as a Pakistani-dominated network, it soon shifted its focus to Afghanistan, changing its strategy from territorial control to urban warfare. This shift poses a significant security challenge to the former Afghan government and now aims to disrupt the Taliban’s attempts to establish governance.
With the reinstatement of the Taliban, the security situation in Central Asia has become perilous. Countries such as Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan, which share borders with Afghanistan, have deployed additional troops to secure their borders. The Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) has also convened multiple meetings to address the insecurity in Afghanistan and the risk of the crisis spreading to Central Asia, underscoring the seriousness of the threat.
The primary concern of Central Asian countries lies in the presence and activities of fundamentalist groups in Afghanistan. Despite the Taliban’s consistent promise not to allow any group to use Afghan soil, fulfilling this promise proves arduous due to these groups’ historical contributions to the Taliban and the Taliban’s obligation to provide them with refuge. Present in the northern provinces of Afghanistan, the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) and Jamaat Ansarullah of Tajikistan are considered significant threats to Central Asia’s security.
Riccardo Valle, a researcher of fundamentalist groups, argues that the Taliban have made progress in exerting control over their allies. However, some of these organizations are solely dedicated to overthrowing Central Asian regimes through armed struggle. Valle further suggests that these groups will eventually need to decide between abandoning jihad against their main enemies in Central Asia and complying with the Taliban or joining the Islamic State-Khorasan (ISS-K), the only other platform that allows them to relentlessly fight against Central Asian governments.
On the other hand, ISS-K has pledged to launch a “great jihad in Central Asia,” seeking to gain control over extensive territories in the ancient region known as Transoxiana. Despite the Taliban’s efforts to suppress ISS-K, this group remains the most active and provocative among the factions taking shelter in Afghanistan, with the objective of toppling Central Asian governments. ISS-K has intensified its recruitment efforts by disseminating advertisements in local languages, aiming to recruit fighters from these countries. Recently, ISS-K issued threats to assassinate the leaders of Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, as well as Central Asian clerics who have spoken out against ISIS.
The threat posed by ISS-K, coupled with the transfer of Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) fighters to northern Afghanistan, further complicates the situation. Psychologically, fighters who have spent years fighting to establish an Islamic system will not remain idle; they will seek their next objective. Central Asia appears to be an attractive choice for these rebels due to its one-party and secular governments. Moreover, it is unlikely that these forces will surrender and cease their acts of violence. Additionally, ISS-K has a long-standing relationship with TTP, with many members and founders of ISS-K in 2014 having previously served in TTP. The alliance between these old comrades poses significant security concerns for Central Asia, and the northern region of Afghanistan will gradually become a focal point for fundamentalist groups. Over the past 40 years, North Waziristan in Pakistan has served as a sanctuary for international terrorists, and it is now probable that northern Afghanistan will suffer the same fate.
