Iranian President Seyyed Mohammad Ebrahim Raisi arrived in Islamabad, the capital of Pakistan, on Monday, April 22, for a three-day visit. The timing of the Iranian delegation’s trip to Islamabad coincides with the volatile situation in the Middle East, making it a matter of significant attention. This marks Raisi’s first foreign trip following recent tensions. Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif also noted his presence as the first visit by a high-ranking foreign official to Islamabad since the formation of the new government in Pakistan. The Iranian delegation was warmly welcomed, and a street in Islamabad was named “Iran” as a sign of solidarity. Raisi held meetings with top Pakistani civilian and military officials, discussing issues of mutual concern. He also visited the city of Lahore and paid respects to the Tomb of Allama Iqbal, a renowned Islamic scholar, by laying a wreath.
This trip may pursue multiple objectives, but three major goals are highlighted:
- Efforts to De-escalate Tensions
Iran-Pakistan relations became tense in January of this year over a few tumultuous weeks. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) launched missile strikes, targeting parts of the Pakistani border allegedly harboring the Jaish al-Adl group, according to Iranian claims. In response to these attacks, Islamabad shelled border areas in Iran. According to media reports, both attacks resulted in the loss of civilian lives. The Pakistani side summoned its ambassador from Tehran and prevented the return of the Iranian ambassador to Islamabad. However, the situation quickly normalized. Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian later traveled to Islamabad with retaliatory measures, and the current trip is also an effort to address and alleviate the tensions of recent weeks. Given the seriousness and danger of attacks on each other’s soil, a high-ranking Iranian official needed to visit Pakistan, as it was the initiator of the attacks.
- Presenting the Situation as Normal
The situation in the Middle East has become intensely volatile in recent months and weeks. The Gaza war, the crisis in the Red Sea, sporadic attacks on American bases, border clashes between Israel and Lebanon, and recent tensions between Tehran and Tel Aviv all indicate the depth of the crisis. If the retaliatory actions of Iran and Israel were not at least politically restrained in the current sensitive period, the region would sink further into the quagmire and whirlpool of destructive war. Many refer to the Islamic Republic of Iran as one side of the conflict. Raisi’s trip to Pakistan aims to portray the situation as normal, indicating that his country is not in a state of war and that Israel’s retaliatory actions are insignificant. In this regard, considering the first point, Pakistan is considered the first and better choice.
More importantly, now that the confrontation between Tehran and Tel Aviv has been averted, the necessity of diplomatic engagement has gained significance. Israel’s allies are active, continuously increasing sanctions against Iran. Iran also needs to garner support from other countries to avoid being labeled as a warmonger on one hand and to alleviate the burden of heavy sanctions imposed by Western governments on the other.
3- Iran-Pakistan Gas Pipeline
The Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline, also known as the “Peace Pipeline,” has become one of the most controversial projects. Given its nature and importance, it has certainly been at the center of discussions between the two sides. The origins of this project date back to 1994 when Pakistan and India agreed to purchase gas from Iran through a pipeline, but Delhi withdrew from the agreement in 2008. Finally, Islamabad and Tehran agreed in June 2009. The Iranian side seemingly fulfilled its commitment by constructing a 900-kilometer pipeline within its territory, but the Pakistani side did not. Although its construction began in March 2013 under Asif Ali Zardari, the then President of Pakistan, it was not completed. It was supposed to be completed by early 2015.
The text of that agreement mentions that failure to continue the daily work results in a fine of one million dollars daily. Islamabad is obligated to pay a fine of $18 billion. Iran demanded payment of this amount in an international court in 2015 but later withdrew the complaint in 2019 with a revision to the contract, conditional on Islamabad to act on the promises on the project. At that time, the Iranian side had given Pakistan until March 2024 to complete the work, yet no progress has been observed. Now, once again, a deadline has been given until September of this year, but achieving a clear result is uncertain. According to the agreement, Islamabad imports 7 billion cubic meters of gas annually from Iran for 25 years.
The Caretaker Pakistani government approved the construction of an 81-kilometer pipeline from the border with Iran to the Gwadar port in February of the current year. While Pakistan must construct a 781-kilometer pipeline from the border to the Nawabshah region in Sindh province. The Iranian side even offered a $500 million loan to the Pakistani side, which was not accepted. Based on estimates, the construction of the 81-kilometer pipeline also costs 45 billion Pakistani rupees, which is still difficult for Islamabad to finance.
Two important factors, alongside other intervening factors, contribute to the halt of the Iran-Pakistan gas project:
3.1.The United States opposes the project. Despite being under sanctions, Washington does not allow its friends and rivals to engage in extensive trade with Iran. While Washington warned Islamabad against sanctions for the pipeline’s construction, the Iranian side demanded completion of the work or compensation for its interruption. The approval of the construction of part of the pipeline by the temporary Pakistani cabinet was due to the continuous insistence of the Islamic Republic of Iran for compensation. Despite Islamabad’s repeated efforts, it has not been able to obtain an exemption from US sanctions. Washington has repeatedly responded to Islamabad’s requests by saying, “We always advise everyone that dealing with Iran involves the risk of contact and dealing with our sanctions, and we advise everyone to consider this matter very carefully.” However, Pakistani authorities have repeatedly stated that America should consider their country’s problem regarding purchasing expensive gas from other markets. Producing gas from Iran is very cost-effective for Islamabad, hence its strong inclination towards it.
It is said that Saudi Arabia, as a financial supporter of Pakistan, is also dissatisfied with this country’s gas project with Iran. There are claims that Riyadh, under various pretexts, has persuaded Islamabad to withdraw from purchasing gas from Iran. If this is the case, America’s dissatisfaction alone is not effective.
3.2. America’s preference is for the opening of the gates of Central Asian republics in South Asian markets, not the Islamic Republic of Iran. In this regard, TAPI can be considered a competitor to the IP gas project. TAPI connects four countries: Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and India. Afghanistan is the connecting factor in this scheme, and its absence is causing the project to fail. This gas project transports Turkmenistan’s gas from the Dauletabad region of that country through the route of Herat, Farah, Helmand, and Kandahar to the city of Quetta and then to Fazilka, India. TAPI has been in America’s spotlight for a long time. In the 1990s, two major international companies named Unocal and Bridas, the former American and the latter Argentinean had heated competition over TAPI. Even in March 2021, some American media outlets, including The Washington Examiner, criticized the Biden administration for paying the Taliban to implement the TAPI project; an allegation that was rejected by the White House at the time. The talk of TAPI’s implementation is also hot these days.
The final point is that this trip cannot be interpreted as Pakistan’s distancing from the United States of America. Claims in this regard are less likely to be true under current circumstances. Islamabad is neither distancing itself from Washington nor seeking shelter under China and Iran. The fact that America currently shows less attention to Pakistan compared to the past is due to the insignificance of the Afghanistan issue, not because Islamabad is being seen as slipping towards the rival bloc. Pakistan, as an important country in South Asia, still has the right to engage with any country according to its interests, regardless of America’s influence, and this is something even the American side understands.
You can read the Persian version of this article here:
تاملی بر سفر ابراهیم رییسی به پاکستان