What is the next step for the international community regarding Afghanistan? This was a question asked from the UN Secretary-General in Doha, Qatar during the end of the conference on Afghanistan on May 02, 2023. In the video of the press conference posted on the UN website, it appears that Antonio Guterres did not have an answer and chose to ignore the question. The conference, initiated by the UN Secretary-General, focused on exploring the possibilities of recognizing the Taliban regime in Afghanistan. The issue of recognition was leaked a day prior by Deputy General Secretary Amina Mohammad, jeopardizing the outcome of the conference. Thanks to Amina, the conference concluded without any concrete result, and the organizers promised to hold a similar conference in the future under the leadership of the UN.
To be honest, nobody, including the UN Secretary-General, knows the next step for the international community regarding Afghanistan. The recognition of the Taliban regime is a hot topic being considered and explored by countries worldwide. It is difficult to predict when recognition might occur, or which country might take the lead. However, it is crucial for the international community to prioritize the people of Afghanistan and the situation of human rights as redlines when considering whether to recognize the Taliban regime or not.
Recognition is a significant concept in international law as it confers rights and duties to a state, affirming a government as the legitimate representative of that state. The question remains as to who will represent Afghanistan as a state in the international community. There are two forms of recognition: constitutive and declaratory. Constitutive recognition is the political aspect that grants other states the right to recognize the new state or government. Generally, the international community conditions recognition on democratic legitimacy. Declaratory recognition, on the other hand, is the legal dimension in which a state or government declares itself independent, arguing that it has fulfilled the conditions of statehood or established a government that is a legitimate representative on the international stage. Declaratory recognition places more emphasis on the concept of “effective control” or de facto power.
Although the Taliban regime has effective control over the territory of Afghanistan, it cannot be considered the legitimate representative of the Afghan state. It lacks legitimacy in the eyes of the Afghan people and fails to comply with the international conventions and agreements that Afghanistan has signed and ratified, including the Universal Declaration of Human Rights. For the Taliban regime to be recognized as the representative of the Afghan state, it must uphold the human rights of Afghan citizens and hold a referendum in Afghanistan to allow the people to vote and legitimize its rule.
The international community faces a decision on what is more important in recognition: effective control or the responsibility to protect the rights of citizens. The people of Afghanistan consider the latter as the priority and urge the international community to condition recognition on respecting and guaranteeing the civil and political rights of the Afghan people.
Since the Taliban came to power in August 2021, countries worldwide have explored different approaches to engaging with the Taliban. These approaches range from full recognition to conditional recognition, engagement without recognition, and withholding recognition. Several countries have chosen to establish diplomatic relations with the Taliban but conditioning recognition on fulfilling specific demands. Most countries, including those that have handed over Afghanistan’s embassies to the Taliban and received their diplomats, have observed the principle of withholding recognition. The best approach to dealing with the Taliban is engagement without recognition. This approach allows the international community to buy time and observe the behavior of the Taliban. Whatever promises the Taliban makes to the international community should be in written form and, most importantly, demonstrated through practical actions, including the observation of women’s rights and minority rights. There is every possibility that the Taliban might change course after gaining recognition from the international community.
In my opinion, for the Taliban to be recognized, they should first legitimize their government by conducting a referendum under international supervision. They should then form an inclusive and broad-based government, enact laws that reflect the rights of women and minorities, demonstrate respect for internationally recognized regimes, and finally request recognition from the international community.
However, looking at the behavior of the Taliban thus far, it is evident that they have violated human rights, disregarded good neighborly policies, ignored international regimes, and continued to harbor internationally banned terrorist organizations.
Since their takeover in August 2021, the Taliban has issued draconian decrees against women, resulting in half of society being paralyzed and restricted in their movements. Girls’ schools have been closed, women are banned from the workplace, and their freedom is conditioned upon wearing veils and obtaining consent from male family members. A recent report by the United Nations on the condition of women in Afghanistan confirms that the Taliban has erased the 20 years of progress made by women and pushed them back to the situation prior to 2001 when the Taliban first ruled Afghanistan.
Neighboring countries are concerned about the Taliban’s unpredictable behavior. Pakistan, an all-weather friend of the Taliban, views them with great doubts. The Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), a close ally of the Afghanistan Taliban and opponent of the Pakistan government, has become a significant headache for the Pakistani establishment. Pakistan’s attempts to establish rapport with the Taliban in Afghanistan to eliminate the TTP have barely succeeded, if at all. Border clashes have been reported between Afghanistan and Pakistan, with each side accusing the other of provocative actions. However, the TTP, now taking refuge and support from Afghanistan, has become much more active in border areas, launching attacks on Pakistani army checkpoints. The timeline of TTP attacks from February 2013 to February 2023 shows a dramatic increase in incidents after 2021 when the Taliban took power in Afghanistan. Prior to 2021, there were usually only one or two incidents per year, but in January 2023 alone, three deadly incidents were reported, resulting in the deaths of around 80 Pakistani police officers.
Similar tensions exist with Iran, as clashes have occurred between Iranian forces and the Taliban. Iranian authorities accuse the Taliban of lacking rationality and awareness of international law. The situation with Afghanistan’s northern neighbors, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan, is not much better. The border between Tajikistan and Afghanistan has been closed since the Taliban took control, while the situation with Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan remains tense but relatively unchanged.
Although there is no direct threat to China from the Afghan border, Chinese citizens working in Afghanistan have been targeted and killed. The perpetrators of these incidents are believed to be either the Eastern Turkistan Islamic Movement (ETIM), composed of Chinese Muslims, or the TTP, which considers China its enemy due to its close cooperation with Pakistan. Prior to this, a similar incident occurred in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) in Pakistan, and the TTP claimed responsibility. Recognizing the real sources of these threats, China and Pakistan held a trilateral meeting with the Taliban’s foreign minister, Amir Khan Muttaqi, in May 2023 in Pakistan to pressure the Taliban into curbing both the ETIM and the TTP, which are close allies of the Taliban.
In addition to Afghanistan’s neighbors, great powers like the US and Russia are also dissatisfied with the Taliban’s behavior. Washington has called on the Taliban to respect human rights and not provide shelter to terrorist organizations. However, looking at the violations of women’s rights and the harboring of Al-Qaida leader Al-Zawahiri before he was killed by a US drone in Kabul, the Taliban disregards these demands. For Moscow, the security of the Central Asian countries, drug trafficking, and terrorist organizations are the primary concerns when dealing with Afghanistan. However, it appears that Russia is disappointed with the Taliban’s inability to address these issues effectively.
Certain countries, driven by geopolitical interests, have allowed the Taliban to occupy Afghanistan’s diplomatic missions in their own territories and accepted Taliban nominees to take over these missions. However, none of them have officially recognized the Taliban regime yet. Other countries considering a similar approach should carefully evaluate the current and past behavior of the Taliban, particularly regarding human rights and their relations with terrorist groups, before making any decisions. It is highly recommended to closely examine the behavior and policies of the previous Taliban government in the 1990s. Mullah Omar and the Taliban leadership were willing to sacrifice their regime by provoking the US to invade Afghanistan rather than relax their draconian laws on women or extradite Osama bin Laden, the mastermind behind the 9/11 attacks. Unfortunately, the Taliban still finds it difficult to address the women’s rights and cut its relations with terrorist organizations. Demographically, most Taliban members come from the rural Pashtun heartland, and ideologically they adhere to the radical Deobandi school of thought. In both contexts, women have no place in public life, while concepts like hospitality and Muslim brotherhood hold special significance. These factors allow the Taliban to justify their ban on education and employment for women and provide refuge for Islamic terrorist organizations under the Taliban’s banner.
In any discussion on recognition, it is crucial to prioritize the well-being of the people of Afghanistan and the protection of human rights. The Taliban has a documented history of violating human rights, ignoring international standards, and offering refuge to terrorists. When engaging in recognition discussions, the international community should carefully consider this track record and use it as a basis for assessing the Taliban’s behavior. Only if the Taliban demonstrates a sincere commitment to upholding human rights, forming an inclusive government, abiding by international norms and regulations, and severing ties with terrorist organizations, can the discussion on recognition move forward.
About the Author:
Sharif Hozoori is a research scholar at the South Asia Program, Einaudi Center for International Studies at Cornell University.
