In 1972, Afghanistan and Iran signed an agreement regarding the utilization of the Helmand River. As per the agreement, Iran is allocated 820 million cubic meters of water annually under normal conditions. However, experts argue that Iran consistently receives double its rightful share of water from the Helmand River. They believe that Iran, through its Escape forward policy, aims to establish a parallel agreement in addition to the Helmand Treaty. Iranian officials have persistently voiced their protests and demanded their rightful share of water from the Helmand River. Recently, the President of Iran issued a warning to the Taliban, emphasizing the need to take Tehran’s demands seriously to avoid severe consequences. In response, the Taliban urged Iran to use “appropriate language.” Political analysts perceive Iran’s warning to the Taliban as an attempt to suppress domestic protests. However, some analysts speculate that Iran is leveraging its position as a regional representative to deter the Taliban from pursuing geopolitical agreements with the West via Qatar and Pakistan.
President Sayyid Ebrahim Raisi, during his visit to Sistan and Baluchestan province in Iran on Thursday, May 18, accused the Taliban of breaching their commitment regarding the Helmand River. In a video of his speech, he issued a stern warning to the Taliban, emphasizing the gravity of his words. He stated, “I want to convey to the Afghan rulers [the Taliban] that they must not treat this speech lightly; they should take it extremely seriously. I caution the officials and rulers of Afghanistan [the Taliban] to promptly fulfill the rights of the people in the Sistan and Baluchestan region.” President Raisi underscored the regional and global significance of the water issue, vowing to prevent the wastage of people’s rights. He urged the Taliban to heed his words and not later complain about being uninformed or assume that diplomatic talks or the passage of time would resolve the matter. According to him, the passage of time does not offer a solution. He demanded permission for Iranian technical experts to inspect the Kajaki Dam in Helmand province. President Raisi clarified, “If our experts confirm water shortages, we have no objections. Otherwise, we will not allow our people’s rights to be squandered.” The Taliban responded strongly to this threat from President Raisi.
Official Response of the Taliban to the Warning by the President of Iran
The Taliban has responded to the warning issued by Iranian President Sayyid Ebrahim Raisi, emphasizing the importance of using “appropriate language” when presenting their demands, as inappropriate statements in the media have negative consequences. Zabihullah Mujahid, the Taliban spokesperson, conveyed this message in an official press release published on Thursday, May 18. The press release reaffirmed the group’s commitment to upholding Iran’s water rights as outlined in the 1972 Treaty. It also highlighted the drought conditions and water scarcity in the provinces along the Helmand River in Afghanistan. The Taliban expressed their belief that Iran lacks comprehensive information on the matter. The press release stated, “First, Iranian authorities should gather complete information about the Helmand River and then present their demands using appropriate language. Making statements without proper understanding of the true reality can harm the political relations between the two Muslim nations, which is not beneficial to any party and should not be repeated.”
According to Najibullah Fahim, former Minister of Natural Disaster Management of the Afghan government and former member of the Afghan negotiations team for the Helmand River Water Treaty, the prolonged wars and unstable situation in Afghanistan have resulted in Iran receiving a greater amount of water than stipulated in the treaty. Mr. Fahim stated that approximately four billion cubic meters of water flow into Iran each year, whereas Iran’s water rights, as specified in the written treaty, are set at 26 cubic meters per second during normal water years.
What is a Normal Water Year?
The Helmand-River Water Treaty bases its water quantity estimates on a normal water year, which corresponds to an annual supply of approximately five billion metric tons of water from the Helmand River, as measured by the Dehraoud gauging station. According to the treaty, Iran is entitled to 26 cubic meters per second of water during normal water years. In cases of reduced precipitation and drought, the treaty specifies that Iran’s water allocation will be proportionally decreased to match the decrease in water availability.
How is the Normal Water Year determined, and what is the situation with the semi-deep wells on the other side?
According to Najibullah Fahim, water gauging devices are installed on various sections of the Helmand River on both sides. He explains that these devices, located in Dehraoud, the Kajaki Dam, Nimruz Province, and Sistan in Iran, serve to determine whether a year qualifies as a normal water year. In Sistan, every drop of water is meticulously measured as it enters the region. Additionally, there is a water gauge device at the entrance of the Kuhak Dam in Sistan, Iran.
Mr. Fahim addresses Iran’s semi-deep wells, stating that satellite image analysis reveals their water abundance, with a capacity of 1.8 billion cubic meters. He poses the question: if Iran hasn’t received its entitled water rights, where did the water in these wells come from? While he doubts the capability of the Taliban administration, he emphasizes that Iranians possess the ability to analyze it through remote sensing and GIS technology.
Yesterday, Iranian media published satellite images revealing the Kajaki and Kamal Khan Dams. The images clearly depict the open gates of the Kamal Khan Dam, with water flowing towards Iran.
Does the Iranian Technical Committee have the right to inspect the Kajaki Dam?
Mr. Fahim, who has previously engaged in negotiations with Iranians on this matter, highlights that the Helmand-River Water Treaty does not mandate a technical inspection by the Iranian committee. He asserts, “Allowing their committee to visit Kajaki Dam is not stipulated in the treaty. As per the treaty, Afghanistan is responsible for providing water gauging data from Dehraoud devices to Iranians. In return, Iranians should reciprocate by sharing figures regarding rainfall, water reserves, the volume of water in the semi-deep wells, and the flow of water in the lakes with Afghanistan. This matter should be addressed during the Water Commissioners’ meeting.”
Iranian Foreign Minister Amir-Abdollahian previously emphasized that the Taliban must honor their commitments under the Helmand-River Water Treaty and facilitate visits by technical delegations to measure the water level.
When are the meetings of the Water Commissioners held?
Mr. Fahim, an experienced professional in this field, stated in an interview with Hasht-e Subh Daily that the examination of Iran’s share of the Helmand River is a specialized legal matter. He emphasizes that such discussions should take place in the Water Commissioners’ Meeting. The technical and legal aspects concerning the Helmand River should not be addressed by the President of Iran in a press conference. The exchange of figures and analysis should be conducted at the level of Water Commissioners, and based on that, both sides can reach a conclusion regarding whether it is a normal water year or not.
Meanwhile, there are no restrictions on the convening of meetings by the Water Commissioners. They can hold regular meetings every six months and can also schedule special sessions without any time limitations.
According to Mr. Fahim, Iran’s demand exceeds the provisions of the Helmand-River Water Treaty. He suggests that Iran is attempting to deflect attention from its own significant violations of the treaty by accusing Afghanistan and employing an Escape forward strategy. If Afghanistan has a responsible government, it can present evidence to international organizations and accuse Iran of violating water rights and the Helmand-River Water Treaty.
He perceives the statements made by the Iranian President as political and threatening. He asserts that these accusations are a means of exerting pressure and issuing threats. The intention behind this is to manipulate the Taliban by leveraging the water issue, seeking to establish an additional treaty alongside the Helmand-River Water Treaty and securing legal validation for their unilateral actions, which contradicts the provisions of the Helmand-River Water Treaty.
Mr. Fahim refers to a report by the Research Center of the Iranian Parliament, which states that Iran has annually received 1.8 billion cubic meters of water from the Helmand River over the past forty years. This report was prepared in 2004.
Does Iran have the right to use extra water from the Helmand River?
Article 5 of the Helmand-River Water Treaty specifies that Iran is not authorized to utilize additional water from the Helmand River. Mr. Fahim blames the Taliban regime for its lack of responsibility and asserts, “If the Taliban were truly accountable, they would analyze statistics, figures, and satellite images, disclose them to the media, conduct press conferences, and provide information to the opposing party and international authorities, while keeping the public informed.” However, he emphasizes that the Taliban have been passive in their approach to this matter.
What is the solution to the water tension between Iran and Afghanistan?
Experts argue that resolving the current water dispute between Iran and Afghanistan concerning the Helmand River requires a thorough examination of the data and statistics obtained from the water measuring devices used by both countries. According to Mr. Najibullah Fahim, during previous negotiations, they proposed to Iran the idea of initiating an independent investigation conducted by a neutral third-party entity. The purpose of this investigation would be to identify the primary cause of the violations of the Helmand-River Water Treaty, as well as the drying up of the Gudzarh Depression and Hamouns. The results of this impartial investigation would shed light on the issue, but the Islamic Republic of Iran did not agree with this proposal, despite Afghanistan presenting abundant evidence of Iran’s alleged disregard for the rights of the Afghan people and violation of the treaty.
The tension between Afghanistan and Iran regarding the Helmand River is not a new issue. In a previous parliamentary hearing, Ahmad Jawad Osmani, the former Minister of Energy and Water of Afghanistan, revealed that Iran has obstructed the water flow in the shared river basins. He stated, “Iran has constructed numerous dams in the shared river basins, preventing any water from reaching the Harīrūd River. The dam construction has halted the salt marsh that used to originate from Iran and benefit the people of Afghanistan by flowing towards the Ghorian region. Consequently, our country no longer receives any water from this shared basin.”
Is the Issue of Water Rights or Political Dissatisfaction of Iran from the Taliban?
In the past two years, Iran has provided significant support to the Taliban on the international stage, using them as a political tool to advance its regional interests. This support includes handing over Afghanistan’s embassy in Tehran to the Taliban and supplying them with military equipment obtained from the previous government. However, in addition to their interactions with Iran, the Taliban have also engaged with the United States. Some analysts speculate that the Iranian president’s warning reflects Iran’s dissatisfaction with the Taliban’s political conduct. Abdullah Khanjani, a former government official in peace affairs, dismissed Iran’s warning about “Water Rights” as a mere excuse. In a tweet, he suggested that water is being used as a pretext by Iran, which represents the interests of the region, particularly Russia and India, to hinder the Taliban’s geopolitical negotiations with the West via Qatar and Pakistan. He further suggested that the change in Taliban leadership marks the beginning of new political pressure from the West, and conflict between the region and the Taliban is inevitable.
What are the consequences of the warning from the President of Iran to the Taliban?
The Iranian president’s warning to the Taliban has been dismissed by some analysts, who believe it will have no significant consequences. Mohammad Shafaq Khwati, the non-resident ambassador of the previous Afghan government for Afghan migrants affairs in Iran, regards the warning as inconsequential for Tehran. He outlines two possible responses to the warning: either the Taliban will retreat from their position and resume recognizing the authority of the Kabul government, or they will retaliate against Afghan migrants and refugees who sought refuge in Iran during previous periods of Taliban rule. Khwati notes that in the past, the Iranian government targeted migrants as a form of revenge against conflicts with Afghan governments, but this approach will hold no sway over the Taliban.
However, according to some analysts, if the Taliban fail to heed Iran’s warnings, Tehran will cut off its financial support to the group and cease sending them money.
The Warning of the President of Iran and its Domestic Implications
Residents of Iran’s Sistan and Baluchestan province have voiced their dissatisfaction with the actions of the country’s officials during the recent protests. The Tehran court has carried out numerous executions of Baloch activists in recent weeks. According to some citizens, the president’s warning is a ploy to gain domestic support. They believe that the president aims to show the government’s supposed commitment to the region, despite the ongoing discrimination faced by its inhabitants.
Ridicule and Mockery: Taliban’s Reaction to the Warning
The Taliban responded to the Iranian president’s statements not only through an official statement but also indirectly through the display of yellow Jerrycans on social media by some members and supporters of the group. In the Taliban’s context, yellow Jerrycans symbolize roadside bombs and explosive attacks. Additionally, a Taliban media figure, “General Mobin,” who was previously a spokesperson for the Taliban’s security command in Kabul, filled a yellow Jerrycan with water and expressed fear in response to the Iranian president’s warning. He stated, “There is no water in Helmand, and this clean water is brought from Logar [to give to them]. We are afraid of the warning.”
Taliban supporters are widely circulating another video on social media in which Iran is warned of potential chaos. The video features individuals displaying yellow Jerrycans and declaring, “We are coming to Iran with a train of yellow Jerrycans – alongside dust and fire, we are coming to Iran!” Some officials from the previous government have urged both sides to exercise restraint and adhere to the 1972 treaty. Citizens of the country have also called for calm, emphasizing that the solution to tensions between the two countries lies neither in a yellow Jerrycan nor a warning. Mohammad Noor Akbari, the chief of staff of Amrullah Saleh’s office and former first vice president of the previous government, expressed on Facebook, “The solution is the Helmand-River Water Treaty between the governments of Afghanistan and Iran. This is a legal issue, not a fight.”
The Helmand-River Water Treaty, signed in 1972 between Musa Shafiq, the Prime Minister of Afghanistan, and Amir Abbas Hoveyda, the Prime Minister of Iran, stipulates that Iran has the right to approximately 820 million cubic meters of water in a normal year. However, water experts indicate that over the past forty years, Iran has exceeded its allocated water share from Afghanistan by more than double due to the chaotic conditions in the country.