Neighboring countries, particularly Tajikistan, have consistently expressed concerns about the escalating terrorist threats emanating from Taliban-controlled Afghanistan. These nations accuse the Taliban of supporting and arming regional terrorist groups. According to them, the Taliban have failed to ensure border security. Russia and Pakistan, considered key allies of the Taliban in the region, have also voiced dissatisfaction with the group on multiple occasions. These two countries have urged the Taliban to cease support for terrorist groups, especially those opposing their armed forces. The Russian ambassador to Tajikistan stated that terrorist groups have made repeated attempts this year to infiltrate from Afghanistan into Tajikistan. The Russian official added that there has been no progress in the Taliban’s promises to secure borders with neighboring countries, leading to an increase in industrial drug trafficking. On another note, an Iranian media outlet claims that Jaish ul-Adl has a presence in Afghanistan with support from the Taliban, benefiting from both logistical and political backing from the group.
The Taliban’s support for regional insurgent groups and providing refuge to them within Afghanistan remains a significant concern for the global community, especially regional countries. Despite engaging with the Taliban, these nations closely monitor the status of terrorist groups under the regime’s control, consistently expressing their concerns to senior Taliban officials.
In the latest development, Semyon Grigoriev, the Russian Ambassador to Tajikistan, stated that the Taliban have yet to ensure the security of Afghanistan’s neighboring borders. According to him, extremist groups based in Afghanistan have made repeated attempts this year to infiltrate Tajikistan.
Russia’s TASS news agency, citing the Russian official, reported that countries have seen no progress in the fulfillment of Taliban’s promises. He added, “We observe no specific progress in the realization of the Taliban’s commitments regarding the security of neighboring countries with Afghanistan. Throughout the year, extremists have attempted to penetrate Tajikistan through the Tajikistan-Afghanistan border, fortunately swiftly suppressed by Tajikistan’s security forces.”
The Russian diplomat added that Afghanistan is on the brink of a severe humanitarian crisis, facing imminent collapse in social and economic spheres. He emphasized that the serious attention of Russian and Tajik leaders to the Afghan issue is entirely justified.
The Russian Ambassador to Tajikistan, pointing to the surge in industrial drug trafficking from Afghanistan, stated that Western countries have effectively cut the budget for anti-drug programs targeting the Tajikistan-Afghanistan border.
Grigoriev further noted that another destabilizing factor in Afghanistan is the widespread influx of refugees expelled by Pakistan and relocated to northern provinces. According to him, the relocation of these migrants to northern Afghanistan could potentially alter the ethnic composition. He warned, “There may be terrorist elements among the refugees.”
Meanwhile, Qasem Shah Iskandar, the head of the Center for Afghanistan & Central Asia Strategic Studies (ACASS), speaking to the Hasht-e Subh Daily, asserts that recent statements by the Russian ambassador on Dushanbe are perceived by Tajik experts as indicative of an inclination towards a shift in Russia’s policy towards the Taliban. He emphasizes that in the past, Russian security authorities have spoken about security concerns in Afghanistan, but the country’s diplomatic apparatus has criticized the Taliban with a gentle and diplomatic tone. According to him, the sharp and critical tone of the Russian ambassador’s remarks could be interpreted as a change in Moscow’s policy towards the Taliban.
The head of the Center for Afghanistan & Central Asia Strategic Studies (ACASS) adds that the concentration of terrorist groups at northern Afghan borders, especially along the border with Tajikistan, and the expansion of drug trafficking, are perennial concerns. He considers the Russian ambassador’s statements as confirmation of Tajikistan’s legitimate position regarding terrorist groups in Afghan territory and emphasizes that the Taliban have not fulfilled their commitments in this regard.
Mr. Iskandar also expresses concern about the relocation of migrants expelled from Pakistan to northern Afghanistan. Referring to the remarks of the Russian ambassador in Tajikistan regarding the presence of insurgent groups among migrants and demographic changes in the north, he states that among them, thousands of insurgents may be present, posing a serious threat to the stability and security of the region, especially Tajikistan. According to him, the migration to the north, in addition to exacerbating ethnic tensions, poses a serious challenge to the Central Asia region.
On the other hand, Dr. Fiaz Ghiasi, a former diplomat in Tajikistan, speaking to the Hasht-e Subh Daily, states that Tajikistan is concerned about the presence of terrorist groups such as “Ansarullah, the Eastern Turkistan Islamic Movement (ETIM), ISIS, and other terrorist groups.” According to him, Tajikistan’s security forces have apprehended terrorists multiple times on the border between Afghanistan and Tajikistan or prevented their entry in the past year. Mr. Ghiasi adds, “Taliban occasionally cooperate with terrorists in destabilizing northern neighboring countries, especially Tajikistan. According to an unverified report, the Taliban leadership, led by Qari Fasihuddin, the Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of this group, has requested cooperation with ISIS, stating that they are our Muslim brothers and we should collaborate with them.”
This former diplomat states that Tajikistan has repeatedly raised its security concerns, but the Taliban have shown little attention to these concerns. Conversely, drug trafficking at the northern borders has increased, with the leaders of this group involved in smuggling.
These concerns in northern Afghanistan came to light after the Jaish ul-Adl group attacked a military base in Iran. An analysis in the Islamic Republic newspaper suggests that Jaish ul-Adl has a base with Taliban support in Afghanistan. The Iranian newspaper adds that since Jaish ul-Adl secured “logistic and political support” from the Taliban, it was suspected that they would engage in malicious actions.
This Iranian media outlet had previously claimed that the Taliban had delegated security responsibilities for the provinces of Herat, Farah, and Nimruz to the Jaish ul-Adl group and the Abdolmalek Rigi network. These two networks are accused of carrying out deadly attacks on Iranian soil.
Mohammad Reza Bahrami, former Iranian Ambassador to Afghanistan, in response to the attack by the Jais ul-Adl group, stated: “From the Western perspective, terrorism is not a global threat but rather a regional threat to countries, primarily in South and West Asia and certain regions in Africa.”
He added, “The Taliban’s experience in transforming into a formal power could serve as a model for these groups. This possibility increases the potential for instrumental use of these groups.”
On the other hand, the attack by Jaish ul-Adl has prompted reactions from officials of the former Afghan government. Rahmatullah Nabil, the Head of the National Directorate of Security of the former Afghan government, stated that in the year 2023, the Taliban, with the assistance of Jaish ul-Adl, caused the fall of Nimruz province.
Furthermore, Dr. Rangin Dadfar Spanta, the former Minister of Foreign Affairs and National Security Advisor of the Afghan government, has said, “The potential establishment of the Taliban in Afghanistan motivates their allies and supporters.” He added that the primary goal of terrorist groups is to create unrest in West Asia and Central Asia.
