Afghanistan has always been susceptible to regional developments and crises due to its inherent vulnerabilities and reliance on external actors. Consequently, major transformations in Afghanistan have been more influenced by external factors than internal ones. With the resurgence of the Taliban, Afghanistan’s susceptibility to regional crises has intensified, drawing greater momentum and depth from them. The failure to address Afghanistan’s issues at the tables of major powers thus far stems from its susceptibility to regional tensions.
The first crisis that emerged after the return of the Taliban to power was Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, an event that tangentially affected the issue of Afghanistan. It cannot be asserted that had the Ukrainian crisis not occurred, the crisis of Afghanistan would have necessarily concluded. However, it would have at least avoided the current level of neglect. There is a belief that Afghanistan’s transformation into the current situation has been at the cost of creating a crisis in Eastern Europe. Zalmay Khalilzad, the former U.S. Special Representative for Afghanistan Reconciliation argued during a discussion in mid-February this year at a meeting with the U.S. House Foreign Affairs Committee, defending the hasty and irresponsible withdrawal of U.S. forces from Afghanistan, stating that “the focus on competition with Russia and China was the reason for the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan.” He had previously stated to the media, “Imagine if the US were in Afghanistan now, we couldn’t help in the war in Ukraine. The Russians would also equip the Taliban by sending weapons.” If Khalilzad’s claim holds it seems that the resolution of the Afghanistan issue hinges on the conclusion of the Ukrainian conflict. However, there is no end in sight to the Ukrainian war. Moreover, the allocation of $60 billion to Ukraine by the United States suggests the prolongation of the conflict. Afghanistan’s susceptibility to the Ukrainian crisis lies in the involvement of two major powers: the United States and Russia. If the resolution of the current crisis in Afghanistan is to be orchestrated by foreign powers, Washington and Moscow will play the primary and fundamental role.
The second crisis that sidelined the Afghanistan issue was the Gaza war outbreak. This conflict drew even more attention from the United States than the war in Ukraine. The Biden administration has been struggling to end the Gaza war, turning it into a current responsibility. Consequently, it has been seven months of futile efforts. For instance, the CIA director William Burns has been shuttling between Paris, Doha, and Cairo for several months. Burns’ travels aim to reach a ceasefire agreement in Gaza. This precisely indicates the importance of the Gaza conflict for the United States, albeit at the expense of neglecting Afghanistan. Therefore, the resolution of the crisis in Afghanistan may also depend on the conclusion of the Gaza war. However, the outlook for the end of the Gaza war is bleak. Moreover, Washington’s $14 billion aid to Tel Aviv makes the outlook even darker. Israel, which has constantly benefited from U.S. support, receiving such a large sum considering its small population raises eyebrows. The $8 billion aid to Taiwan is more intriguing. Despite being relatively peaceful and not under imminent threat from China.
However, the end of the Gaza war does not guarantee serious attention to the issue of Afghanistan. While the CIA director travels to capitals for a temporary ceasefire in Gaza, when it comes to Afghanistan, U.S. State Department spokespersons only vaguely mention concerns about human rights violations in response to journalists’ questions. One of Biden’s government spokespersons must have considered their country’s need to maintain a strategy of engagement with the Taliban. The fact that the U.S. State Department has labeled the Taliban as human rights violators in its annual report should not be over-romanticized. Shouldn’t it have done so? A country that proclaims itself as the world’s greatest defender of human rights should have taken at least this minimal step, right? While the trio of China, Russia, and Iran occasionally urge the Taliban to adhere to human rights, as well.
The third round of tension that has pushed the current situation in Afghanistan out of the world’s focus is the retaliatory actions of Iran and Israel. Although tensions between Tehran and Tel Aviv may seem to have subsided, the conclusion of the Gaza crisis will push both sides towards clearer confrontation anew. Before Iran and Israel engaged each other, Afghanistan had not fallen out of the world’s attention to the extent witnessed in the past two months; that is, with the existence of the Gaza and Ukraine conflicts, we were witnessing conferences in Doha and New York centered on Afghanistan. But now, even these minimal efforts have been sidelined from the world’s agenda.
A few months ago, Roza Otunbayeva, the Head of the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA), announced in her speech at the Security Council session the holding of the third round of the Doha conference on Afghanistan in June of this year, but since then, no further mention has been made of it. While the United Nations had been deliberating for months with the involved parties to hold the second round of the Doha conference and had prepared the prerequisites and arrangements, it seems that the conference will not be held as scheduled. Even if it does, it will likely be less effective than previous conferences.
An ostensibly significant step taken by the Security Council was the appointment of a Special Envoy for Afghanistan to address the ongoing crisis in the country. This issue had become the headline of domestic and international media for months. Opposition forces to the Taliban also welcomed this initiative, hoping that its realization would pave the way toward resolving the crisis. Now, similar to other topics on Afghanistan, it has been sidelined and no news is heard about it, adjustments have also been made to the position of Russia, China, and Iran, who were opposed to the appointment of a UN Special Envoy. For example, Hassan Kazemi Qomi, Iran’s ambassador to Afghanistan, told the Tolonews that supporting the appointment of a special envoy if it helps resolve the crisis in Afghanistan is worth it. If China and Russia had intended to oppose it, they would have vetoed the Security Council resolution, which they did not. They only abstained from voting to avoid tormenting their tactical ally (the Taliban). Now that the ground for the appointment of a special envoy has been better prepared than before, the United Nations is not taking a serious step, which is concerning. All the aforementioned indicate the world’s indifference towards the issue of Afghanistan.
The escalation of crises in other parts of the world is detrimental to the people of Afghanistan in that it prolongs the lifespan of the Taliban, a group that has not positively responded to any of the world’s demands in any field so far. The Taliban also make utmost efforts to exploit regional inflammations to their advantage.
You can read the Persian version of this analysis here: