After statements made by Joe Biden, President of the United States of America, about Taliban collaboration with the U.S. against Al-Qaeda, many social media users and some political activists have claimed that the Taliban has taken on a role similar to that of the Wagner Group for the Russian government, even dubbing them the “American Wagner.” Their argument is based not only on Biden’s words but also on the large amount of money the Taliban receives. Many assume that various actors are providing this money to the group in exchange for covert agreements made with American negotiators in Qatar.
If the Taliban truly represents the American equivalent of Wagner, it will not only complicate the political landscape of Afghanistan and the region but also bring clarity to the current confusion and deadlock surrounding Afghanistan. This will help people inside and outside the country better understand the situation. However, Afghanistan’s problem lies in the ambiguous and vague nature of the Taliban, which gives any regional or international power the impression that with increased financial support, the Taliban could become their country’s equivalent of Wagner. The Taliban’s business-oriented mindset in dealing with different countries has fueled hopes that it could be transformed into a specialized force, like Wagner, to counter strategic rivals. One motivation behind the Taliban’s suppression and deprivation of Afghan women and girls’ education and work is to conceal their behind-the-scenes dealings with various governments, particularly intelligence agencies, in order to present themselves as independent and loyal to ideological ideals while keeping their uninformed soldiers loyal.
The Russian Wagner had a clear identity, leaving little ambiguity about its work. Everyone knew that its existential philosophy was to work as a contractor for the Russian Ministry of Defense in the country’s foreign wars. Unlike Wagner, the Taliban lacks unity and clarity. The group still does not reveal its leader to the people, shed light on the hidden aspects of its agreement with the United States, clarify its relationships with intelligence agencies of various countries, or explain the nature of its collaboration with Al-Qaeda, the TTP, and other militant and violent groups.
While Joe Biden may view the cooperation of some elements of the Taliban in eliminating Ayman al-Zawahiri as a success, many others are aware of the Taliban’s complex and undisclosed relationships with terrorist groups and express concern. The gathering of numerous foreign fighters in Afghanistan, along with their extensive cross-border relations with similar groups in South Asia, Central Asia, West Asia, and some parts of Africa, cannot be easily ignored. Both the Afghan people and the international community face a phenomenon much more complex than Wagner, and its long-term consequences are still uncertain, despite major powers’ ability to manipulate incidents to their advantage. As always, weak and vulnerable nations will pay the highest price. And thus, Afghanistan will continue to be a battlefield for proxy wars for much longer.
