Since 1952, Turkey has been an active member of NATO, ranking fourth in terms of military strength after the United States, France, and the United Kingdom. This has granted Turkey a special position and prestige in the Middle East, South Caucasus, and Central Asia. Despite this, Turkey appears to be dissatisfied with its Western allies in the organization, yet has no intentions of leaving. Recently, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan accused U.S President Joe Biden of attempting to overthrow him at his last election rally, and further criticized his election opponent, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, for his statements about Russia. Erdogan also highlighted the importance of continuing friendship with Russia, noting that it has been one of Turkey’s most important agricultural product allies.
It is evident that Turkey’s relationship with certain key members of NATO, particularly the United States, has deteriorated, although not with the organization as a whole, as is evidenced by the statements of Ankara officials to some extent. Turkey has taken a divergent path from NATO in crucial moments of history, such as refraining from joining NATO in supporting Ukraine and imposing sanctions against Russia. The question then arises as to what factors have caused Turkey to withdraw from NATO in such important situations.
The factors that are effective in this field can be divided into two categories: internal and external.
- Internal Factors
- The Unsuccessful Coup of 2016
On May 28th, 2013, Istanbul saw a large protest, which began with an environmental focus but soon spread to other cities and took on a political tone. This was due to the Turkish government’s plan to demolish Gezi Park in Taksim Square and replace it with a commercial complex, which sparked the protests. As the protests grew, the police entered the square and began to suppress and arrest the protesters, leading to the disapproval of Turkey’s Western allies. This was the largest protest the Justice and Development Party government had seen since 2002. Western allies of Turkey chose to stand with the protesters rather than the rulers of the country. The European Union issued a resolution condemning the police’s treatment of the protesters, to which Erdogan, the prime minister at the time, responded by accusing the European Union of double standards and claiming the protests were a conspiracy against him. Furthermore, in 2011, Barack Obama, who had previously called Turkey’s democracy the largest Islamic democracy and a good example for other Islamic countries, labelled Erdogan a failed and authoritarian leader in regards to the suppression of protesters. The stances of the United States and the European Union caused Erdogan to suspect that a project to oust him from power had been set in motion.
b. Suspension of Turkey’s Membership in the European Union
On July 15, 2016, a coup in Turkey was attempted, but it was unsuccessful. It is alleged that the purpose of the coup was to remove Erdogan from power, and it is believed to have been initiated by soldiers loyal to Fethullah Gulen, who was formerly a supporter of Erdogan. Erdogan requested the extradition of Fethullah Gülen, who resides in Pennsylvania, USA, but his request was not granted, leading Erdogan to become embroiled in the conspiracy and to accuse the United States of involvement in the coup. This accusation has yet to be substantiated.
After rejecting Turkish President Erdogan’s request to extradite Fethullah Gulen, American Christian pastor Andrew Brunson was arrested on suspicion of involvement in the attempted coup. This prompted the United States to impose sanctions on Turkey, which Ankara officials labelled as an economic war against their country. The arrest and imprisonment of Andrew Brunson was not an isolated incident, as Erdogan began to purge anyone he perceived as an adversary from the military. This policy of purging and imprisoning the opposition caused discontent among Turkey’s Western allies.
In 2014, Turkey refused to join the United States-led international coalition against the Islamic State of Syria and Iraq (ISIS), prompting the United States to seek out field allies that Turkey had classified as terrorist groups, such as the Kurdish left-wing political party PYD and its military arm YPG. Furthermore, during his election campaigns in 2020, then-candidate Joe Biden referred to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan as an “authoritarian” man, which provoked a strong response from the Ankara government.
The cooling of friendship between Turkey and the United States, which holds the leadership of NATO, was caused by several factors. Ankara officials believed that the United States, in collaboration with rival forces, had started the project of “removing Erdogan”. Russia and Iran expressed more sympathy for Turkey and explicitly condemned the coup, whereas the United States only belatedly condemned it, which did not meet the expectations of the Ankara authorities, who had hoped for more than just a condemnation from the United States.
Recently, the Turkish government’s opposition to Sweden and Finland joining NATO demonstrated its discontent. While the other NATO members were attempting to persuade countries to join NATO in order to contain Russia, Turkey abstained. Turkey accused Sweden and Finland of harboring members of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), its Syrian branch (People’s Defense Units), and supporters of Fethullah Gulen, and asked the other NATO members to take into account the country’s security concerns and not accept the two countries’ membership. However, later, the Turkish parliament voted in favor of Finland joining NATO.
c. Gezi Park Protests
The rulers of Turkey have long been concerned with obtaining membership in the European Union. Both secularists and Islamists have attempted to gain access to the European Union, yet have been unsuccessful. Membership in the European Union would be beneficial to Turkey, and the rulers of the country have not given up on achieving it. For instance, the Justice and Development Party (AKP) made considerable efforts between 2001–2010, yet to no avail. In 2005, official negotiations between Turkey and the European Union began, which some refer to as the golden age of the Europeanization of Turkey‘s foreign policy. It appears that Turkey‘s lack of clarity in the field of human rights and loyalty to liberal values, as well as weaknesses in the economic field, are the cause of this setback.
There is a famous satire in Turkey about the difficulty of joining the European Union. The European Union calls Serbia, Montenegro, and Turkey for membership and asks them a question; if they answer correctly, they will be accepted, otherwise not. For example, the European Union asks Serbia in which year the First World War began and it answers correctly with 1914. The door opens and Serbia enters. Montenegro is asked in which year the war ended and it answers correctly with 1918. The door opens and Montenegro enters. In its turn, Turkey is asked how many people were killed in the war and to mention their names and dates of birth. Turkey is unable to answer and the rejection bell rings. These unsuccessful attempts to join the European Union led to the creation of a mentality among the rulers and citizens of Turkey that the European Union sees this country as a foreign element.
Following the Gezi Park protests and the transition from a parliamentary to a presidential system in 2017, the European Union has become increasingly skeptical of the ruling power in Turkey, and it does not seem likely that the door to the union will be opened to Turkey in the near future. Immediately after the results of the second round of Turkish elections were announced, Manfred Weber, the leader of the European People‘s Party, called for an end to Turkey‘s accession to the European Union. According to him, Turkey requires close cooperation with the European Union, not necessarily full membership.
The three internal factors have caused a lack of trust between Turkey and its Western allies. Since 2013, Turkey has attempted to distance itself from NATO at key points in history. It appears that Erdogan‘s return to power has not been able to improve relations between Turkey and its Western allies, as the United States and the European Union have accused Erdogan of violating human rights and disregarding democratic principles, while Erdogan has accused them of plotting and attempting to overthrow him.