Recently, John Achakzai, the Minister of Information of Balochistan Province of Pakistan, in a statement, called the construction of a dam by the Taliban group on the Kunar River a hostile act against Pakistan: “If the Afghan Taliban advance the construction of this dam without including Pakistan, there will be severe consequences in the escalation of tensions and conflicts.” He noted that the Taliban are doing this without consulting Pakistan and in consultation with India: “The Taliban are negotiating with an Indian company to build this dam, and its construction will have a significant impact on the water flow of the Indus River.” Additionally, he described the concern of the countries of Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan regarding the construction of the Qosh Tapa canal as understandable, adding that these two countries are facing a severe water shortage.
The crisis in the Afghan embassy in India also indicates that the Taliban is turning towards New Delhi. Some diplomats called for the temporary suspension of the Afghan embassy due to the insistence of the Indian Ministry of Foreign Affairs to establish contact with the Taliban. Subsequently, Sher Mohammad Abbas Stanikzai, the Taliban Political Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs, stated in an interview with the media that the Afghan consulates in the cities of Mumbai and Hyderabad, India, follow this group. However, during the reopening of the embassy, the name of the Taliban was not mentioned by the diplomats, nor was their flag raised. Later, Indian Foreign Minister Jay Shankar, in a statement, linked the temporary closure of the Afghan embassy to the departure of some diplomats to third countries, noting, “The embassy is operating as usual by the remaining diplomats.”
India, which closed its embassy in Kabul when the previous government collapsed, reopened it with a delegation of officials from that country coming to Kabul to meet with the Taliban. However, the purpose of that trip was to monitor the distribution of humanitarian aid. At that time, Mullah Yaqoob Mujahid, the Taliban’s Defense Minister, had expressed his readiness to send their fighters to India for training. Following that, the Taliban announced India’s readiness to train the group’s diplomats and foreign ministry employees in diplomatic affairs.
The above cases indicate the turning of the Taliban towards India and vice versa, whether it is genuine or tactical, it is affected by the following factors:
1- The Taliban no longer wants to be labeled as dependent on Pakistan. This statement may not seem believable, because the Taliban are called the creation of Pakistan, to the extent that the victory and defeat of this group is called the result of this issue. There is no doubt about the Taliban’s dependence on Islamabad, the doubt lies in the preservation and survival of this dependence. The Taliban, currently endeavoring to survive in a government, are trying to alleviate their level of dependence on Islamabad so that they are no longer considered mercenaries. Therefore, the simple way is to turn to India. This is because it is Pakistan’s rival, and it is feasibly interpreted as non-dependence. Additionally, this turn is not to the extent that it can be cut off from Islamabad.
2- Pakistan’s soaring weakness and India’s increasing power hold significance to the Taliban. For now, Islamabad is immersed in problems with the country being plagued by a political and economic crisis. Terrorist activity of Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) has also troubled Islamabad. The definition that can be obtained from Pakistan these days is a country that sometimes relies on China and sometimes America to meet its needs. However, India’s brilliance in all fields, especially economy and technology, is stunning. New Delhi’s hosting of the “Group of 20” meeting and its membership in the “BRICS” group, along with the important world powers, has increased its prestige and status. Groups such as the Taliban, which are unable to stand alone, try to be in contact with stronger countries rather than weaker countries.
3- The Taliban are fearing that India will support the opposing forces of this group as it has done in the past. Pakistan’s position against Taliban opposition fronts is clear and the possibility of this country supporting them seems very weak, although it is not impossible. Possibly, India will support the movements opposed to the Taliban. If a country like India faces the Taliban, the scales will be heavily weighted towards the interests of the opposing currents of this group. This is because India stands as an important power in the region and its change of approach towards the Taliban affects the approach of Russia, Iran, and even the United States. Therefore, for New Delhi not to support the opposition forces of the Taliban, this group has no choice but to establish contact with it and avoid Pakistan.
4- The presence and activity of TTP in Afghanistan has inadvertently linked the Taliban with India. It is alleged that TTP is receiving financial support from New Delhi against Islamabad. The Taliban have also sheltered the TTP for reasons, especially ideological commonalities. Even according to the statements of some Pakistani officials, TTP fighters have been armed with American weapons left in Afghanistan. This issue has unintentionally become a common denominator between India and the Taliban. It is also possible that the Taliban will indirectly benefit from New Delhi’s financial assistance to the TTP, in which case they will consider the continuation of the current situation to their benefit. In brief, the Taliban are not looking for an end to Pakistan and taking refuge in India, but they are trying to maintain the apparent balance between these two rivals, which will reveal their success and failure with time.