China hosted Vladimir Putin, the President of Russia, for two days. Xi Jinping, the President of China, warmly welcomed his Russian counterpart in Beijing. This is Putin’s first foreign trip after his inauguration and the beginning of his fifth presidential term. Putin also visited China in October last year to attend the third Belt and Road Forum, where he met Xi on the sidelines. This was his first trip after the Ukraine attack. Similarly, Xi visited Moscow in March of last year, shortly after the start of his third presidential term, and held bilateral meetings with Russian officials. According to the statistics presented, Putin and Xi have met forty-three times.
This visit is significant from several perspectives:
1 – Russia and China are seriously concerned about the increasing expansion of NATO towards the East, evidenced by the attack on Ukraine. China’s avoidance of condemning this attack despite Western governments’ requests indicates its sensitivity to Western influence. Moreover, Western governments perceive their alliance as a major threat to their interests. For example, Jens Stoltenberg, the NATO Secretary General, said in an interview with a global media outlet in April current year, “Authoritarians support each other and share military technology and equipment, becoming increasingly aligned.” By authoritarians, he means China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea. Recently, British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak described the alliance of these countries as detrimental to Western interests, labeling them as authoritarian and emphasizing that they undermine Western values and unity. Similarly, Antony Blinken, the US Secretary of State, during his recent visit to Ukraine, confirmed the statements of these two Western officials that China, Iran, and North Korea support Russia against Ukraine. Given the statements of these three Western officials, Putin’s visit to Beijing and the warm hospitality he received indicate specific implications, including showcasing the unity of the authoritarian bloc.
2 – After the attack on Ukraine, Russia faced sanctions from Western governments. The two-year and several-month-long war is costly, and Moscow’s economy will not bear it in the long run. Therefore, to make Western sanctions less effective, it needs an ally like China, which ranks second globally economically. No other country besides China can lift Moscow’s economic needs from this perspective. Beijing has also expressed readiness to Moscow’s call. Statistics show that the volume of trade between the two parties has not only decreased after the Ukraine war but has also increased, which can render Western sanctions against Russia less effective. In the last year, China was the largest buyer of Russian oil, surpassing Saudi Arabia to second place. Given its constraints, Moscow has become the first seller to China by selling oil cheaply. The volume of trade between the two parties last year exceeded $240 billion, which is 64% more than when Ukraine was safe. However, the trade relationship between the two parties is unbalanced; meaning, China benefits more. Beijing is Moscow’s top trading partner, but Russia is China’s sixth. For Moscow, the momentum of trade is currently important, not necessarily maintaining balance in the relationship.
3 – According to reports, Russia is currently in a relatively better position on the battlefield. Kharkiv, a city in northeastern Ukraine, has witnessed intense clashes, with Russian military forces making some advances and Ukrainian forces retreating in recent days. This is happening while a $61 billion aid package from the United States to Ukraine is on its way. Volodymyr Zelensky, the President of Ukraine, has canceled all his foreign trips to contain the advance of Russian forces. However, Putin, who is under investigation by the International Criminal Court, has become the honored guest of one of the world’s great powers. It is interesting that someone accused becomes the guest of others, and someone who is not accused cancels his trip. This precisely illustrates the unfortunate situation in Ukraine. Putin’s visit to China may be aimed at conveying a message of victory to the Western side.
4 – Hosting Putin is also important for China. Beijing recently hosted the US Secretary of State. Additionally, Xi visited countries in Europe, including France, Serbia, and Hungary. Now, it hosted a head of state whose countries wished for his defeat. China’s advantage from all these hosting and guesting events is to introduce itself as a trusted mediator for all parties. It has been somewhat successful in this regard. Russia’s trust in China’s mediation is a clear example. For instance, Putin, a day before his trip, praised China’s mediation in the Ukraine war in an interview with Xinhua News Agency, a Chinese media outlet, saying, “Beijing has a complete understanding of what lies behind this crisis.” The European Union also has some trust in its mediation. Therefore, it has repeatedly called for mediation, believing that Xi influences Putin. However, there are also obstacles. For example, the NATO Secretary-General said in statements that China cannot have both sides (the West and Russia). Similarly, Blinken said in his recent meeting that China wants good relations with Europeans and also wants to support Russia, which is not possible. Therefore, it is unclear whether China’s relationship with Europe and America will remain the same in the current situation or deteriorate due to accusations of supporting Russia.
You can read the Persian version of this analysis here:
