Two days ago (February 3rd), the “Federalists Assembly of Afghanistan” declared its existence in exile. This assembly includes both former and new political figures from Afghanistan, some of whom are leaders of certain political parties. After months of voting and efforts, the assembly has taken shape and declared its existence. According to members of this assembly, its organizational structure is not yet final. The clear objective of this political movement is the formation of a federal government in Afghanistan, but serious doubts exist about its potential success.
Some members of this new political movement are well-known and experienced political figures in Afghanistan, such as Sarwar Danesh, who has at least 20 years of managerial experience, including leading two ministries and serving as a deputy in the government under Mr. Mohammad Ashraf Ghani’s leadership. Dr. Latif Pedram, leader of the National Congress Party of Afghanistan, with two terms of experience as a representative of the people of Badakhshan in the parliament, Dr. Mahiuddin Mahdi, Dr. Nilofar Ebrahimi, and several other figures.
Appropriate Timing:
The announcement of the existence of the Federalists Assembly of Afghanistan, despite the serious necessity of decentralization, has sparked relatively widespread reactions among Afghan social media users. As far as I can tell, most users had a critical perspective. One criticism is directed at the same politicians who, when in power and control of the country’s politics and geography, did not make an effort to change the system and remove the concentration of power from Kabul. However, people are aware that figures like Latif Pedram were actively working towards this goal even during their time in power. This criticism is more directed towards Mohammad Sarwar Danesh, the former deputy president under Ashraf Ghani, who faced opposition to the formation of a federal system in the country during his tenure and considered it a source of instability. Other criticisms include speaking about changing the system and decentralization from comfortable and serene lands, which is simple, but they cannot have an impact on the situation when they are not present and active in Afghanistan. Nevertheless, any step taken towards improvement by anyone is commendable. Although lost time and opportunities are irreparable, the acknowledgment by some politicians of their mistakes and a clear departure from the wrong path holds significance. The failure of senior officials of the republic, including SarwarDanesh, in managing the country and maintaining the system will remain the responsibility of these individuals, both within the country and in some other nations.
Despite the numerous criticisms regarding the political track records of some members of this assembly, the current tumultuous situation involving opposition movements against the Taliban and the geographical dispersion of politicians living in various regions presents a significant and noteworthy step towards unity and cooperation. The collaboration of several political movements and prominent political figures in the country to work together towards a common goal in the face of the current challenges is a serious and commendable development. Taking such a step is crucial, especially considering the escalating pressures imposed by the Taliban on the people, making it essential in the current environment.
On another front, the United Nations is set to hold a meeting in Doha, Qatar, shortly. In this meeting, the proposals of Fereydoun Senirlioglu, the UN Coordinator in Afghanistan, to break the current political deadlock in the country will be discussed. Other actions have also been taken by the United Nations, including efforts to appoint a special representative for Afghanistan. In the past year and a half, the world has struggled to make the Taliban an integral part of the global community. Now, the urgency of moving beyond the Taliban regime in Afghanistan seems more critical. In such a situation, the formation of a political movement with a clear stance on the future political system of Afghanistan can emphasize political efforts to overcome this regime. Therefore, despite the significant loss of territory and political power to the Taliban, efforts towards decentralization, an undeniable necessity, can still be beneficial. If these efforts coordinate with the initiatives of the United Nations and other global entities to move beyond the Taliban regime, or at least occur simultaneously, the timeliness of such actions can be further highlighted.
Will it Succeed?
Moving beyond the Taliban regime is inevitable, and the current situation will eventually come to an end. The Taliban acknowledges this and, therefore, relies on financial resources and inflicts suffering on the people to secure a position before the end of their regime. However, the post-Taliban order should not be a centralized government. The concentration of power in the hands of the president was a major factor in the corruption and ineffectiveness of the republic, ultimately leading to its downfall. Afghanistan should not repeat the same mistakes multiple times. Decentralization of power must be a non-negotiable focus. Efforts in this direction, including the formation of the Federalists Assembly of Afghanistan, can be successful, but it requires a long time and persistent struggle. Establishing a new movement, especially in exile, alone cannot contribute to improving the situation or clarifying the path for the future.
Several prominent Afghan political parties have expressed support for the Federalists Assembly of Afghanistan. The Islamic Unity Party of the People of Afghanistan, led by Mohammad Mohaqeq, the Islamic National Movement Party of Afghanistan, led by Marshal Abdul Rashid Dostum, and the Islamic Unity Party of Afghanistan, led by Mohammad Karim Khalili, are among these parties. The idea of decentralizing power has garnered support among various segments of society. However, for these parties and individuals to succeed in achieving their common goal of decentralization, they must collaborate, build trust, and persistently work towards their shared objectives. The Federalist Assembly of Afghanistan has declared its goal of decentralizing power and forming a non-centralized government, even if it does not explicitly use the term “federal.” This can unite individuals and entities towards their common objective.
Changing the system and removing the concentration of power is not a simple task. While this plan has the support of some parties and individuals, it also faces opposition from others, and their numbers are not insignificant. Part of the core of the republic shares a common interest in concentrating power with the Taliban emirate. These individuals and movements may slowly join the decentralization movement, but it will take time. Just as Federalists have expanded from one or two parties over the past two decades to five or six parties now, including many non-party individuals, they may attract at least some of the remaining parties and individuals. All of this is contingent on sustained and stable efforts to pursue this goal. If members of this movement, like Sarwar Danesh, who opposed decentralization in different circumstances, resist or separate from the movement under different conditions, it diminishes the likelihood of success and may fail.