With the Taliban in control, Afghanistan has emerged as a focal point of crisis in the region due to the absence of a legitimate and legal government. Extremism within the country has transcended beyond individual groups, evolving into a systematic process that now exerts control over governmental institutions. This precarious situation has led millions of Afghan citizens to contemplate fleeing, raising concerns for neighboring countries. Signs of this crisis occasionally manifest, as evidenced by the recent reciprocal missile attacks between Iran and Pakistan.
It appears that the scope of the crisis is expanding and extending beyond Afghanistan’s borders. The recent missile exchanges between Iran and Pakistan, both of which have their distinctive style of Islamic Republic regime and close ties with the Islamic Emirate of the Taliban, reveal signs of a smoldering fire beneath the ashes. This event underscores how fragile security and stability are in the region. Without fundamental changes in political and socio-economic conditions, there is a risk of witnessing major disasters in this volatile area.
A flawed aspect of regional policies has been the instrumental use of extremist groups to advance transborder agendas. This strategy has elevated extremist forces and terrorists to significant players in regional political and security matters, manifesting as a stark reality on the ground in interactions among regional powers. As extremist forces proliferate in a region, their behavior and the unfolding of regional events may be somewhat predictable in the short term, but their long-term trajectory remains uncertain due to the unconventional nature of the rules governing these groups. Allowing actors with unconventional behaviors onto the stage drag the region towards a dusty and dark situation, reaching the pinnacle of complexity with the intervention of larger global players.
A layer of complexity in this situation stems from the social and political disarray prevalent in these countries. In areas where governments lack accountability to their citizens, and the will of the people plays a minimal role in shaping the collective fate, societies experience political deadlock, creating conditions conducive to explosive outcomes. Accumulated dissatisfaction and anger can transform any society into a powder keg, where a small spark can trigger widespread disturbances. The recent unrest stemming from confrontations over women’s attire in Iran serves as an illustration of this social deadlock, characterized by a lack of dialogue between the people and the system, with citizens paying the cost for their freedoms. Pakistan, in this context, exhibits similar characteristics.
As the accountability of governing systems to their nations diminishes, so does the scale of inequality, deprivation, and social gaps increase. This is because resources and opportunities tend to concentrate in the hands of powerful social groups often labeled as rent-seekers, a common term in Iran. Each of the three countries in this region, characterized by regimes described as Islamic, faces similar challenges, resulting in the addition of more marginalized and disenfranchised individuals. Marginalized and deprived segments abound in these countries, and certain communities face intensified pressure and multiple-fold deprivation due to ethnic, religious, or linguistic reasons. Examples include the Baloch and Pashtuns in Pakistan, the Baloch and Kurds in Iran, and the majority of ethnic groups in Afghanistan. The existence of deprivation and discrimination provides the most fertile ground for the recruitment of extremist, insurgent, and even terrorist groups, a phenomenon readily observable in this region.
Ideological political systems often disregard the national interests of their countries, with political power serving a limited circle of stakeholders. This deepens the gap between the government and the people, paving the way for rebellions, upheavals, and even revolutions—similar to those witnessed a decade ago during the Arab Spring. Our region is pregnant with similar events, and a slight shift in global dynamics will reveal the extent of unrest and disorder that will ensue, leaving these countries at the mercy of plunder.
All of these issues are preventable if careful and necessary consideration is given to governance, and past mistakes are rectified. Policymakers and decision-makers in this field must take potential crises seriously and, instead of engaging in adventurous pursuits and sensationalism, contemplate distant futures for generations that seek more peace, hope, and prosperity. Valuable lessons can be learned by examining the experiences of successful countries worldwide. For instance, the experience of a country like Singapore, where a woman from a Muslim minority can rise to the highest seat of government and lead one of the world’s most successful countries in combating corruption, ensuring economic stability, and fostering social development.
Regional leaders and policymakers should question why, even if possessing the highest qualifications, individuals such as a Baloch and a Sunni in Iran, a Shia and a non-Pashtun in Afghanistan, and a non-Punjabi outside the specific power circle in Pakistan cannot ascend to decision-making positions in their societies. Where does this institutionalized discrimination and systematic inequality originate, and what factors contribute to its persistent harm? Why can’t all the claims of a several-thousand-year-old civilization and the alignment of Islamic values reduce the most blatant inequalities and pave the way for a humane and acceptable situation for the citizens of these societies?
Questions of this nature, which may not have had much impact in the past, now, in the digital age where people’s awareness of global conditions has transformed, have profound effects, and their consequences cannot be overlooked. People do not ask for much. The desires of nations are well-being, freedom, equality, and justice. If governments persist in playing past games and attempt to divert attention temporarily from fundamental issues by supporting extremist groups, they will be helpless in controlling the situation in the long run and will dig their graves. The chapter on supporting extremist groups must be permanently closed in this region, and a path to convergence among ethnicities and nationalities should be opened. Discrimination and inequality built on any foundation must be consigned to the graveyard of history. Nations flourish in an atmosphere of justice and freedom, and the region will also achieve stability and progress through this path. This approach is beneficial for everyone.