Nearly two years have elapsed since the collapse of Afghanistan’s republican system. Two years ago, due to the ineptitude and unchecked corruption of Afghanistan’s political leadership, coupled with regional and global connivance, the Taliban unlawfully seized power. Regarding the factors that led to the downfall of the republican system over the past two years, numerous statements and perspectives have been put forth by the former regime’s leaders, officials, and representatives of countries engaged in Afghanistan. These statements have often taken the form of evading responsibility for this catastrophic and ignominious failure. Amidst this, it is the people of Afghanistan who have borne the brunt of this situation, with their destiny being decided behind closed doors in the sterile chambers of luxury hotels. The judgment of those accountable for this political debacle will be left to history and the collective memory of the Afghan populace.
This article endeavors to assess the scope of challenges and issues faced by Afghans during the last two years under the oppressive rule of the Taliban, while also considering the roles and stances of regional countries and the international community.
The Taliban have precipitated a profound crisis in Afghanistan in political, economic, human rights, social, and security realms during this biennium, effectively isolating the nation on the global stage. Throughout this period, the Afghan population has not only been denied access to fundamental services but has also endured transgressions against human rights, pervasive poverty, oppression, threats, and coercion. From the time of the Taliban’s violent ascendancy to the present, the Afghan people have felt the adverse consequences of intimidation, the curtailment of civil and political liberties that constitute fundamental human rights, and the systematic marginalization of women and girls across all spheres of society.
In the course of these two years, the Taliban, with their austere and obscurantist ideology, have consistently engaged in arbitrary arrests of political activists and women’s rights advocates, suppression of media professionals, extrajudicial executions, forced displacement, and the curbing and confiscation of the activities of religious and ethnic minorities. This has fostered an environment of intimidation, fear, and physical and psychological insecurity, compelling hundreds of thousands of Afghans to abandon their homeland, living in destitution and uncertainty across various countries. This reality is corroborated by recent reports from international bodies such as the United Nations Security Council, the Special Rapporteur on Human Rights, and documentary accounts from both independent domestic and international media outlets.
Despite the harsh toll endured by the Afghan population under the Taliban’s rigid and violent policies, Afghan women and girls stand as the principal victims, systematically deprived of their rights, including social engagement, educational continuation, employment opportunities, and the freedom to venture outside their homes without male accompaniment. Over the past two years, the most pronounced directives and edicts have originated from the anonymous Taliban leader, targeting women’s and girls’ rights, signifying a form of gender apartheid against the female population of Afghanistan.
Throughout these biennial periods, the Taliban faction, driven by an evident but hollow sense of pride, has consistently refused both national and international appeals for the establishment of an inclusive and elected system, a central prerequisite for assuring political stability, legitimacy, and national trust. Through their persistence in maintaining an exclusionary and oppressive regime, they have contravened the will of the vast majority of Afghan citizens, effectively steering the nation toward a treacherous trajectory and an uncertain, bleak future.
Contrary to assertions propounding a perceived transformation within the Taliban from their historical stance, the past two years have unveiled a darker manifestation of this group’s mindset. Their records and deeds have not only defied any positive change but have amplified their propensity for violence and extremism. Since regaining control, Afghanistan has once again morphed into a nexus for numerous terrorist and extremist entities. Credible documentation supports the notion that the Taliban, by sheltering, facilitating, and cooperating with these terrorist organizations, have presented a credible menace to Afghanistan’s security, the stability of regional neighbors, and the global community at large.
Despite ostensible rhetoric on creating an all-inclusive government with representation from varied ethnical groups and societal strata, global and regional nations, in line with their self-interests, have engaged with the Taliban in a manner contradictory to their professed values. This form of interaction, characterized by granting concessions and extending financial assistance, has fomented a misguided perception within the Taliban that there exists no alternative for their rule. This, in turn, has led to a notion of dependence, wherein the need of these nations for Taliban cooperation supersedes the Taliban’s requirement for their assistance.
Although concealed agreements embedded within the Doha Accord resulted in the complete withdrawal of foreign troops from Afghanistan, the past two years have witnessed a consistent stand from the United States, European nations, and organizations such as the United Nations. These entities have staunchly emphasized the following three pillars as a unified approach toward Afghanistan and their interaction with the Taliban. These tenets are echoed in resolutions promulgated by the United Nations Security Council:
1- Establishment of an all-inclusive, acceptable governance framework for all constituents;
2-Unwavering commitment to uphold human rights, particularly women’s rights, and facilitating unhindered access to education, learning, and employment for women and girls;
3- Sustained and vigorous battle against terrorism.
The Roles of Foreign Actors
Substantial evidence points towards the endeavors of United States institutions, and specifically the administration led by President Joe Biden, to present a facade of normalcy and stability in Afghanistan, seemingly tailored to align with their domestic policy objectives. Nonetheless, it is evident that their two-year relationship with the Taliban has left them disillusioned. Officials within the Biden administration are making efforts to shield the negative repercussions of Afghanistan’s situation from influencing the outcome of the country’s 2024 presidential elections, as underscored by Republican criticisms. The underlying focus of American policy towards Afghanistan revolves around the execution of the Doha Agreement, aiming to exert influence on the majority of the Taliban through collaboration. Despite exerting extensive efforts and considerable political and financial investments, Washington has not succeeded in imposing its objectives on the Taliban or diminishing the sway of other nations over this group over the past two years. Furthermore, the United States has struggled to elevate the prominence of its proponents within the Taliban, such as Mullah Baradar and Mullah Yaqoob. Nonetheless, it has managed to maintain command over Afghanistan’s airspace and conduct consistent military and intelligence operations. Hence, for the United States, the issue of human rights in Afghanistan appears to hold diminished significance.
It is crucial to acknowledge that European nations, notwithstanding their political disparities and discontent with America’s conduct in Afghanistan, are unlikely to act autonomously in this matter. Their subsequent actions are likely to be dictated by collective decisions within the European Union, closely aligned with American input. Similarly, the exertions of the United Nations in the past two years to convince the Taliban to honor their commitments and comply with the aspirations of the Afghan populace and the international community have yielded limited tangible outcomes. This impasse primarily stems from the lack of a unified stance among the members of the United Nations Security Council, particularly among its five permanent members. Additionally, the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and the prevailing global political climate have exacerbated the atmosphere of distrust among major powers. This has exerted a significant influence on Afghanistan’s situation and undermined the United Nations’ effectiveness in the region.
In the past two years, particularly against the backdrop of the Ukraine conflict, Russia has refrained from engaging in conflicts with the Taliban, opting instead to prioritize interaction with the group in its foreign policy towards Afghanistan. Russia’s objective is to forestall the proliferation of insecurity and security threats throughout Central Asian nations, which traditionally fall within its sphere of influence. Russia’s engagement with the Taliban centers predominantly on security, intelligence, and economic concerns. Its chief apprehension is the expansion of terrorist groups and religious extremism, including ISIS, along with the escalation of drug trafficking from Taliban-ruled Afghanistan into Central Asian countries and Russia. As a result, Russia seeks to mitigate these threats in the short term by making concessions to the Taliban, including ceding control of the Afghan embassy in Moscow to the group. Central Asian nations share these concerns with Russia. Furthermore, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan have bolstered their connections with the Taliban, facilitating economic interactions. Russia also seeks to establish a more expansive economic corridor involving Iran, China, and South Asian nations, particularly India. This endeavor aims to circumvent Western and American sanctions imposed on its oil, gas, and grain exports.
China, initially enthusiastic about the resurgence of the Taliban, has adopted a more pragmatic outlook on Afghanistan over the last two years. Central Asian markets and Afghanistan’s natural resources have consistently appealed to China’s economic goals. Engaging with the Taliban proves relatively uncomplicated, as group members largely adhere to leadership decisions, regardless of prevailing laws. China, in collaboration with Pakistan and Iran, is crafting a strategy to harness Afghanistan’s resources while orchestrating infrastructural development and initiating modest political reforms through the Taliban. These reforms are contingent upon the establishment of an inclusive government. However, China’s rewards for the Taliban’s triumph over the United States remain limited. If the Taliban acquiesce to China’s terms, Beijing is prepared to cultivate a robust partnership with Afghanistan. While an inclusive government is desirable to China, human rights, women’s rights, and the Taliban’s adherence to these principles hold marginal significance. Furthermore, China’s concerns regarding the presence of the East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM) in Afghanistan have diminished compared to previous years, as this group no longer poses a significant and immediate threat to its security interests.
Considering recent developments and India’s diminishing influence in Afghanistan, New Delhi cannot remain indifferent to the evolving situation. China and Pakistan’s sway over the Taliban places India at a disadvantage. Iran’s alignment with China over Afghanistan precludes closer Indo-Iranian ties. In the current context, India’s sole short-term option is strengthening relations with Russia. Over the past two years, certain factions from the previous regime have facilitated communication between India and the Taliban. Despite Pakistan and China’s influence over the Taliban, India has initiated contact with select Taliban circles and expanded its presence through the reactivation of its embassy in Kabul. However, distrust persists between India and the Taliban due to Pakistan and China’s control over the group. Importantly, India is gradually regaining its agency and, as insecurity escalates in its administered Kashmir, the influx of extremist fighters supported by the Taliban necessitates increased pressure on the Taliban within Afghanistan.
For the past two years, Pakistan, once jubilant about the Taliban’s resurgence and its perceived triumph over arch-rival India in Afghanistan, has grappled with complex relations with the group. On one hand, Pakistan’s influence within the Taliban is unmistakable, while on the other hand, the presence of Pakistani Taliban within Afghanistan, alongside close ties between Afghan and Pakistani Taliban, complicates Islamabad’s interaction with the Afghan Taliban. Given Afghanistan’s delicate and intricate situation, even as the host nation for Taliban leaders and their families and a consistent supporter of the group, Pakistan remains hesitant to formally recognize the Taliban at this stage. Pakistan’s approach to security cooperation with the Taliban is cautious, as the group’s rule has witnessed increased attacks on and casualties among Pakistani security forces. Nonetheless, Pakistan’s security apparatus retains significant influence over select Taliban factions, rendering it a key influencer within the group.
Though Iran refrains from officially recognizing the Taliban, it has maintained security and intelligence ties with the group in the years leading up to and following its resurgence. The increased presence of Islamic State-Khorasan (ISIS-K) and other terrorist entities in Afghanistan under the Taliban’s rule has prompted Iran to fortify its interaction with the Taliban over the past two years. Accordingly, Iran has conceded the Afghan embassy in Tehran to the Taliban as a gesture of goodwill. Furthermore, Iran and China’s nascent cooperation concerning Afghanistan has emerged as a key point in their political dialogues. Iran views the prevention of sectarian conflict and the establishment of economic and security collaboration with China in Afghanistan as pivotal to its interests. Consequently, it refrains from endorsing military action against the Taliban.
A significant dimension is the collaborative initiative between Iran and China to invest jointly in Afghanistan’s southwestern and northwestern regions. Despite various factors contributing to lingering mistrust between Iran and the Taliban, Iran-China cooperation remains a prominent concern in both nations’ agendas. Iran prioritizes preventing Sunni-Shia strife and nurturing economic and security relations with China in Afghanistan. In exchange, Iran does not advocate for military intervention.
Cognizant of Afghanistan’s geopolitical realities, Arab nations, particularly Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia, have maintained open channels of communication with the Taliban over the past two years. Qatar, housing the Taliban’s representative office in Doha and acting as an epicenter for negotiations and interaction between the Taliban and other nations, wields the most significant influence over the group. Saudi Arabia, while coordinating more closely with Pakistan—a staunch ally—has proceeded cautiously in its interaction with the Taliban, compared to their prior rule. During these two years, the United Arab Emirates has pursued engagement with a younger faction within the Taliban. This faction, distinct from its leadership, maintains closer ties with Iran. While the United Arab Emirates offered refuge to Afghanistan’s former president, it concurrently seeks to balance Iran’s influence through cooperation with a specific branch of the Taliban. This dynamic is exemplified by the awarding of control contracts over Afghanistan’s airfields to Emirati companies on behalf of the Taliban.
Lastly, Turkey, in its pursuit of retaining influence and safeguarding interests, has sustained relations with the Taliban since the group’s resurgence. As a NATO member, Turkey has engaged relatively extensively and is among the few nations to host Taliban officials. Turkey, positioning itself as a global and regional actor, seeks engagement with various factions and groups. The presence of numerous officials from Afghanistan’s former government in Turkey underscores this role and their influence among Afghan Turkic ethnic groups serves as additional testament.
The Transient Nature of the Taliban’s Rule
Over the past two years, the Taliban group has steered the nation into a state of regression and pervasive obscurity, devoid of any discernible political, security, economic, human, or social blueprint for Afghanistan’s future. The very core of the system has crumbled entirely, precipitating a scenario where the fundamental rights of the populace, encompassing both men and women, have been gravely violated and stripped away by the Taliban group. Consequently, Afghanistan and its inhabitants find themselves trapped in a quagmire of impoverishment, indeterminate circumstances, and an uncertain trajectory.
The countries embroiled in Afghanistan’s affairs are each safeguarding their vested interests, wielding the capability not only to preserve their own stakes but also to undermine the opposing party’s interests and exert pressure upon the Taliban. Nevertheless, these nations lack a shared strategy or intention to compel the group into constructing an all-encompassing administration that respects the rights and liberties of Afghanistan’s citizens. A slew of meetings and frameworks have transpired, failing to align with the objectives of all regional and global stakeholders, thereby yielding limited tangible outcomes.
Similarly, the discourse surrounding the observance of human rights and women’s rights from a political standpoint is a morally charged and emotive subject leveraged by many countries, including the United States, as a tool of pressure upon the Taliban and for internal political narratives. Yet, when it comes to interacting with the Taliban, their primary focus invariably pivots towards advancing their own interests, eclipsing other considerations.
It is imperative to recognize that, within the current global landscape, the issue of Afghanistan does not occupy a prominent place among the paramount tenets of foreign policy and national security strategies of major nations, including the United States. If, in the forthcoming 2024 U.S. presidential election, the Republicans secure victory and the turmoil in Ukraine subsides, a shift in policy toward Afghanistan is, undoubtedly, on the horizon. Such a transformation will undoubtedly influence the stance of numerous nations with regard to Afghanistan.
Of paramount significance is the recognition that the Taliban’s reign is finite—it is a transient phase. Consequently, the establishment of a robust national political faction, genuinely representative of the Afghan populace, devoid of the taint of corruption, prejudice, and animosity that characterized the past, becomes imperative. This faction can effectively assume a role in coordinating with the global community and regional actors, contributing to the unfolding dynamics in Afghanistan. Drawing lessons from past failures, this endeavor should align with the aspirations and interests of the Afghan populace, thus ushering in a more promising era.