Contrary to previous expectations, the Taliban’s control over Afghanistan did not bring happiness to Pakistan. This is due to an increase in terrorist activities carried out by Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) against Pakistan’s interests from Afghanistan. On July 20, Khawaja Muhammad Asif, the Pakistani Minister of Defense, acknowledged that Pakistan had initially expressed appreciation to the Taliban for their victory in the long-standing conflict. However, Pakistan was unaware that the Taliban would provide shelter to its adversaries. On July 19, Asif Durrani, Pakistan’s special representative for Afghanistan affairs, visited Kabul for three days to deliver an important message from the Pakistani government to the Taliban regarding the need to suppress TTP.
On August 7th, General Asim Munir, the Chief of Army Staff of Pakistan, made a declaration stating that terrorists from Afghanistan have been causing security issues in Pakistan. He emphasized that Pakistan is committed to suppressing these groups in Afghanistan. Zabihullah Mujahid, a spokesperson for the Taliban, responded by stating that the Taliban cannot be held responsible for preventing and controlling attacks within Pakistan. While the authorities in Islamabad have previously only mentioned the TTP in relation to these attacks, they now also mention Afghan citizens who they believe are involved. On August 1, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif claimed that Afghan citizens were involved in recent attacks in Pakistan and urged the Taliban to be vigilant about terrorists crossing the borders. Additionally, Hina Rabbani Khar, the Minister of State for Foreign Affairs of Pakistan, announced that Afghan nationals were complicit in terrorist attacks on Pakistani soil and claimed to have provided relevant documents and evidence to the Taliban group. In response to Islamabad’s concerns, Mujahid reiterated the Taliban’s stance that Afghanistan’s territory will not be used against the interests of any country.
In light of the concerns expressed by officials in Islamabad, the Taliban group is faced with a decision between two alternatives: the TTP and the government of Pakistan. The question at hand is whether the Taliban group will prioritize the government of Pakistan over the TTP.
- The Taliban Emirate has failed to achieve success in any area that would satisfy the international community. The world, particularly neighboring countries, are united in their determination to combat terrorism in Afghanistan. If the Taliban were to take effective action, which has not yet occurred and is unlikely to happen, their standing in the world would change. They may attempt to gain the approval of neighboring countries, including Pakistan. The recent killing of Al-Qaeda Leader Ayman al-Zawahiri in Kabul by Joe Biden’s administration has led to the perception that the Taliban is now seen as a partner in the fight against terrorism, rather than being condemned by the world. This has somewhat absolved the Taliban of their association with Al-Qaeda. Despite expectations that the Taliban would face consequences for harboring Al-Qaeda, they have not only avoided punishment but have also been rewarded. Now, the Taliban view resolving the conflict with Pakistan over the TTP as their greatest challenge. They are therefore attempting to convince the world that they are actively fighting against terrorist groups, as the world is focused on the TTP’s activities originating from Afghanistan’s soil against Pakistan, while the authorities in Pakistan have ignored these concerns.
On November 9, 2021, the Taliban group implemented a ceasefire lasting one month between the government of Pakistan and the TTP, with Sirajuddin Haqqani, the Taliban Acting Minister of Interior, playing a prominent role. This demonstrates the Taliban’s influence over the TTP. However, the ceasefire was short-lived as the TTP soon ended the plan and resumed attacks against Pakistan’s interests. The fact that the Taliban mediated the ceasefire suggests that the group yielded to pressure from Pakistan, indicating their willingness to establish peace in Pakistan. Another step taken by the Taliban to appease Pakistan was the relocation of TTP members to the northern and western regions of Afghanistan. The Taliban spokesperson confirmed this action and stated that the decision was made based on the shared interests of Afghanistan and Pakistan. The Taliban recently took an action to please Pakistan by issuing an order, under the leadership of Mullah Hibatullah Akhundzada, that prohibits engaging in Jihad against Pakistan’s interests. The authenticity of this news has been confirmed by Mawlawi Mohammad Yaqoob Mujahid, the Taliban’s Acting Minister of Defense, who stated that engaging in Jihad outside of Afghanistan is not considered true Jihad. It has been reported that Durrani, during his visit to Kabul, exerted pressure on Taliban officials to issue this order, as members of the TTP had pledged their allegiance to the Taliban leader and followed his commands. While Pakistan supports the publicizing of this order, Taliban officials are unable to make it public due to concerns about public opinion.
The Taliban seems to have a preference for Pakistan over the TTP. However, they are now left with only one option to deal with the TTP, which is engaging in armed conflict. The Taliban is cautious about this approach and is not taking it lightly. They are sporadically involved with the National Resistance Front (NRF) and the Afghanistan Freedom Front, while also facing disturbances from Islamic State-Khorasan (ISIS-K). Despite having support from Pakistan, the Taliban cannot open a new front against the TTP. If they were to do so, TTP members may form alliances with ISIS-K, which would be detrimental to the Taliban. Instead, the Taliban is focused on eliminating the TTP threat through peaceful means such as a ceasefire, relocation to other areas, and issuing an order against engaging in jihad, rather than resorting to armed conflict.
- Given the fact that Pakistan is responsible for the creation of the Taliban, this country possesses leverage over the group. It is highly unlikely that the Taliban would ever defy Pakistan. Thus far, the Taliban have not shown any willingness to comply with the demands of any country to the extent that they have with Pakistan. The Taliban consider Jihad to be a non-negotiable principle, but they have prohibited it in order to appease Pakistan. The issuance of such a directive is just as effective, if not more so, than using military force to suppress the TTP. While cannons and tanks can eliminate the immediate threat posed by the TTP, a Sharia decree would render their war against Pakistan permanently illegitimate. This is the greatest favor that the Taliban can offer to Pakistan.
According to Hassan Abbas, the author of the book “Return of the Taliban,” the Taliban have a strong reliance on Pakistan, as evidenced by the fact that their leaders still have residences in that country. Mansoor Ahmad Khan, the former ambassador of Pakistan in Afghanistan, also confirmed in a recent interview that despite the Taliban’s control over Afghanistan, the high-ranking officials of the group still maintain homes in Pakistan. He specifically mentioned that Mullah Yaqoob is known to have a residence in Pakistan.
In addition, it is important to acknowledge the significant role played by Pakistan in presenting a favorable portrayal of the Taliban to the global community. These efforts serve to make the Taliban more compliant to Islamabad’s influence. Despite the verbal criticisms directed towards the Taliban, authorities in Islamabad act as advocates and representatives of this group on the international stage. Pakistan can be likened to a foundational pillar in South Asia, upon which the strategies of Western powers rely. The United States and Britain, being major Western powers, view Pakistan as a crucial ally. Consequently, any anger expressed by Pakistan towards the Taliban will likely be echoed by America and Britain.
Pakistan appears to be taking the issue of suppressing the TTP seriously, prompting a response from the Taliban. The TTP is growing more confident each day, causing increasing worry for Islamabad as it fears the group may become unstoppable. Islamabad’s main concern is that the TTP could become a proxy force for another country, such as India. Alternatively, over time, the Taliban may use the TTP as a means of pressuring Pakistan. Therefore, the authorities in Islamabad are making efforts to eliminate or weaken this “sedition” through truth or military intervention in Afghanistan as soon as possible, as stated by Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, Pakistan’s foreign minister.
- The United States and Pakistan are in agreement regarding the fight against the TTP. American officials have consistently welcomed Pakistan’s efforts in combating this terrorist group, which is included on the United States’ list of designated terrorist organizations along with Al-Qaeda. It is also believed that the TTP maintains a close relationship with Al-Qaeda. For instance, Ned Price, the former spokesperson of the U.S. Department of State, expressed support for Pakistan on January 3 of this year by stating that Pakistan has the right to defend itself against terrorist attacks. This aligns with the claims made by officials in Islamabad, who accuse the Taliban of providing shelter to the TTP in Afghanistan. On August 9, following the violent attacks in Pakistan, Matthew Miller, the current spokesperson of the U.S. State Department, affirmed that the United States continues to support Pakistan’s anti-terrorism operations. He emphasized the importance of the United States’ relationship with Pakistan in the fight against terrorism.
The aforementioned cases demonstrate the significant collaboration between the United States and Pakistan in addressing terrorism. The Taliban cannot overlook the impact of America’s partnership with Pakistan. When a powerful nation like the United States supports Pakistan’s military offensive against the TTP on Afghan territory, the Taliban are left with no choice but to comply with Pakistan’s wishes. Pakistan holds the ability to easily influence America’s stance towards the Taliban, which is viewed favorably by the Taliban. The fact that Pakistan, a known supporter of terrorism, has managed to portray itself as an anti-terrorism force in the eyes of the international community is a separate matter, attributed to the skill and sophistication of its operatives.
Read this article in Farsi here.