From what we hear and see, Iran’s economy is more fragile and unstable than ever. Items such as cooking oil, rice, chicken, and red meat are no longer ordinary commodities; they have become luxury, scarce goods and concrete indicators of a collapsing livelihood. According to media reports, some Iranian citizens, upon entering stores, gaze at these products with longing rather than purchasing them, directing their resentment toward the political system. The sudden removal of “preferential currency” without a replacement plan has driven prices of essential goods up, rendering life nearly unbearable for vulnerable populations. The result has been a shrinking household budget, which quickly sparked street protests, events that, according to reports, have left thousands dead and injured.
At the same time, amid this economic crisis, Iran remains a major destination for Afghan migrants. Even now, Afghan citizens are traversing deserts and mountains through smuggling routes, in the dead of winter, to reach a country whose residents themselves struggle to afford necessities. Along the way, some Afghan migrants lose their lives, whether from gunfire by Iranian border guards, starvation, dehydration, or other hazards. Yet the flow of migration continues unabated and shows no sign of stopping.
This raises a crucial question: if Afghans are willing to migrate at any cost to a country where citizens are grappling with poverty, how dire must Afghanistan’s economic situation be? The answer provides a stark picture of life under the Taliban administration. Afghan migration to Iran is driven not by hope for prosperity, but by sheer necessity. Iran is not a preferred destination; it is merely the last available option to prevent the complete collapse of their livelihoods under Taliban rule.
In this context, the Taliban play a decisive role in emptying the households of ordinary Afghans. The regime has not only failed to improve the economy but has actively exacerbated crises in multiple areas. Concentration of power, extreme ethnic favoritism, exclusion of women from all spheres, plundering of mineral resources, unemployment, and the resulting labor crisis have severely weakened the economic base. Families have little choice but to migrate to a country where most citizens cannot afford daily essentials. For example, I once advised someone not to migrate to Iran, citing the plummeting value of its currency against the Afghan afghani. I explained that one million Iranian tomans is equivalent to only 400 Afghanis, not worth risking a dangerous smuggling route. The person replied bitterly: “You can’t even earn 400 afghanis in Afghanistan, and Iran, despite all its problems, is a place where you can get that amount through day labor.” This simple comparison, more than any statistic or report, reveals the depth of poverty in Afghanistan.
Foreign humanitarian aid, if distributed properly and equitably, can partially relieve the pressure of poverty and provide some comfort to thousands of needy families. The reality, however, is that a significant portion of these resources does not reach those who truly need them. Media and international agency reports indicate that the Taliban seizes these resources to strengthen their military power or redistribute them to other terrorist groups. As a result, the very people these aids are meant to assist remain hungry, and poverty is reproduced in an organized, systemic manner.
Afghan migration to Iran, or other countries, is not driven solely by economic deprivation; it is also rooted in political and social repression. The absence of basic freedoms, arbitrary arrests, imprisonment, and extrajudicial killings of former military personnel and civil servants have created a pervasive climate of fear. In such conditions, many Afghan citizens leave the country not merely for survival or sustenance, but to protect their lives and human dignity, even if it means risking passage to a country like Iran.
Ultimately, connecting the story of “cooking oil and meat” in Iran with the “perilous migration” of Afghans to that country paints a stark picture of the intertwined crises in Kabul and Tehran. Iran suffers from sanctions, inflation, and numerous internal and external challenges. Afghanistan, meanwhile, remains under a regime that, after more than four years, has yet to resolve its legitimacy crisis nationally or internationally, ignores widespread poverty, and boasts of economic growth that is not realized on the ground. Afghan migration to Iran, even during the darkest days of Iran’s own economic turmoil, is not a sign of the country’s attractiveness but a living testament to the depth of Afghanistan’s catastrophe; a catastrophe that will persist until the current regime is either dismantled or integrated into an inclusive, democratic system.
You can read the Persian version of this analysis here:
مهاجرت افغانها به ایران بحرانزده؛ آیینهای از یک فاجعه عمیقتر در افغانستان
