Following the threatening remarks by Donald Trump, President of the United States, regarding a return to Bagram Air Base, widespread reactions have emerged both regionally and within Afghanistan. Russia has described a possible U.S. return as catastrophic for Washington, while Iran has considered it a serious threat to Tehran. The Taliban, in a softer tone than in the past, reminded the United States that it had previously pledged not to use force. Afghan political figures have also issued warnings, each with different concerns and analyses regarding the potential renewed U.S. military presence in the country. Some have suggested that this development could intensify regional disputes, while others have emphasized that the United States “will have no better stewards” than the Taliban in Afghanistan, and that its presence—or absence—will not alleviate the endless suffering of the Afghan people.
After Donald Trump warned the Taliban that “if Afghanistan does not return Bagram Air Base to those who built it, namely the United States, bad things will happen,” a strong reaction came from Russia. Russia has warned that such an action would be catastrophic for the United States.
Russia and Iran’s Reactions
Zamir Kabulov, Russia’s special envoy for Afghanistan, responding to Trump’s threats regarding the seizure of Bagram Air Base, stated that the United States is unlikely to resort to military aggression. At the same time, he warned that the consequences of such an action would be catastrophic for Washington.
Russia’s RIA Novosti news agency quoted Kabulov as saying: “This is very similar to the publicity hype over Greenland and Canada. The results for the United States would be disastrous, while the people of Afghanistan are accustomed to war.”
Iran has not officially commented on the matter, but one government-affiliated media outlet has described a potential U.S. return to Bagram as a threat to Iran.
Tehran Times wrote that a U.S. return to Bagram would symbolize a display of American military power, “U.S. authority,” in domestic and international public opinion. According to the report, from Iran’s perspective, the possible return of U.S. forces to Bagram constitutes a serious threat.
The report also indicated that the United States could use the base to monitor and conduct military operations in the eastern regions of Iran. Given Bagram’s proximity to Afghanistan’s borders with Iran, China’s Xinjiang region, and Central Asia, the base’s strategic location enhances its potential as a center for U.S. military and intelligence operations.
The Iranian outlet further noted that Bagram would allow U.S. forces to carry out drone reconnaissance, electronic espionage, special forces deployment, and even missile or air strikes against Iranian interests. From Tehran’s viewpoint, a potential U.S. presence at Bagram is part of a broader strategy to contain and encircle the Islamic Republic.
Tehran Times also highlighted that Iran-China strategic cooperation, which includes a 25-year agreement covering economic, military, and technological domains, is influential in this regional dynamic. According to the media outlet, U.S. military presence at Bagram could significantly challenge Iran’s efforts to deepen relations and expand regional influence.
Earlier, a spokesperson for China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, responding to Trump’s remarks, stated: “China respects Afghanistan’s independence, sovereignty, and territorial integrity. Afghanistan’s future must be determined by its own people. We call on all parties to play a constructive role in ensuring peace and stability in the region.”
These regional concerns over a U.S. return to Bagram come as the Taliban have confirmed that the airspace over Afghanistan is already effectively under U.S. control.
Habibullah Agha, Taliban Minister of Education, said on Sunday, September 21, during the inauguration of a school facility in Paktia that U.S. drones patrol Afghanistan’s skies every night, and the Taliban cannot prevent it. According to him, the absence of modern sciences has allowed the United States to dominate Afghan airspace.
Meanwhile, Azimullah Warsaji, former chargé d’affaires of Afghanistan in Qatar, said that based on Donald Trump’s stated policies, troop deployment and international intervention are not prioritized, with the main focus being on improving economic conditions and strengthening U.S. authority. According to him, from the perspective of some U.S. officials, declaring a return to Bagram is an ambiguous policy and a unilateral decision. He added that for Trump, the most important issues are peace in Ukraine and Gaza, preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, and containing China; however, he has so far not achieved the desired outcomes.
The former diplomat further noted that one of the key points in the Doha peace agreement was the commitment to prevent terrorist groups threatening U.S. interests from operating in Afghanistan. He cited the killing of Ayman al-Zawahiri, former leader of al-Qaeda, in the heart of Kabul, and the flights of unidentified drones over Afghanistan as evidence of military cooperation along the country’s eastern borders. He suggested that the Taliban may have acquiesced to some U.S. demands to secure American aid.
Warsaji added, “The issue of the U.S. return to Bagram is an exceptional situation. As Vice President Trump also said, the United States does not launch military campaigns or spend financial resources unless its strategic interests are threatened. What gives the U.S. leeway is its security and strategic interests, which, if endangered, will prompt action—especially given China’s increasing activities.”
The former diplomat emphasized that Trump is using this situation as leverage over the Taliban to distance them from China, Russia, and Iran. He explained that another goal of Trump in creating this scenario is to secure the release of prisoners and pressure the Democratic Party in the midterm elections for the House of Representatives and Senate, using it to benefit Republicans and accuse Democrats of failure in foreign policy.
Domestic Reactions
Rangin Dadfar Spanta, former foreign minister of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan, responding to Trump’s recent remarks about returning to Bagram Air Base, said that the United States has this time “found better stewards” in Afghanistan. Spanta added that whether or not the Taliban and Washington reach an agreement will not change the “endless misery” of the people of Afghanistan.
Malek Setiz, an international law expert, wrote that if the U.S. were to regain control of the base, Russia might consider launching a proxy war, recruiting from among various rogue jihadi groups. According to him, China would also, in support of Russia, impose restrictions on its economic initiatives, which would expand economic warfare and exacerbate regional poverty.
The international law expert further noted that Iran, seeking retaliation for the 12-day war, would make significant use of its proxy and ideological forces in Afghanistan. He added that Pakistan would exploit emerging contradictions, and extremist Islamic groups would prepare for proxy conflicts. He warned that Afghanistan could once again become a battleground for ideological and proxy wars between the West and East. Setiz emphasized that his analysis is “bitter and painful” but does not justify the current situation or support Taliban domination.
A few days after Trump’s warning, the Taliban issued a statement in a softer tone, asserting that under the Doha Agreement, the United States had committed not to use force or threats against Afghanistan’s territorial integrity and political independence.
The statement said that the Taliban, “in accordance with Islamic principles and based on a balanced, economy-focused foreign policy, seek positive relations with all countries.” Referring to the Doha Agreement, the Taliban called on Washington to adhere to its commitments. The statement added: “Instead of repeating past failed experiences, a solution based on realism and rationality must be pursued.”
This contrasts with the Taliban’s previous strong reactions to U.S. officials’ statements, as they have now spoken in a softer tone than many of their critics and opponents regarding a potential U.S. return to Bagram Air Base.
Bagram Air Base first became a central hub for Soviet air operations in Afghanistan during the Soviet army’s presence from 1979 to 1989. At that time, thousands of combat flights against the mujahideen were launched from the base. After the fall of Dr. Najibullah’s government and the onset of civil wars, Bagram frequently changed hands among various jihadi groups. Ultimately, in 2001, with the entry of U.S. and NATO forces into Afghanistan, the base became one of their most important military centers and was extensively rebuilt and upgraded.
You can read the Persian version of this report here:
از تهدید ترمپ تا هشدار پوتین؛ بگرام نمایش اقتدار یا فشار بر رقبای منطقهای؟
