The attention of most countries is fixed on the possibility of a resumption of war or negotiations between the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran. Now that the fate of the elections in the United States and Israel has become clear, the mix of fear and hope around the world, particularly among the people of the Middle East, has grown even greater. In recent weeks, global media outlets have been covering the major and minor developments related to the Iran-United States file moment by moment, at times highlighting the possibility of a renewed war and at other times the resumption of talks mediated by Qatar. However, over the past two days, information published in the media points to dialogue prevailing over war. Donald Trump’s tone toward Iran has also become considerably more conciliatory since the announcement of the midterm election results. It is still unclear whether this is a clear shift toward dialogue or groundwork for the next attack. Some non-Iranian media outlets, citing Ibrahim Kalin, head of Turkey’s National Intelligence Organization (MIT), have reported the possibility of a meeting next week in Doha, the capital of Qatar, between Mohsen Rezaei, Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council (SNSC), and JD Vance, Trump’s vice president, although Iranian media later cast doubt on the accuracy of this report. In addition, Trump and the Emir of Qatar have held a phone call about Iran, and Trump is also set to meet and hold talks with Qatar’s prime minister and foreign minister at the White House. Despite all these relatively clear signs in favor of negotiations, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan recently spoke of a “negative turn” in the course of developments, a sign confirming that the possibility of war resuming is strong and that efforts to restart dialogue have failed.
The question now being raised is this: will there be war or dialogue?
The reality is that despite the many signs in favor of negotiations, the possibility of war still appears stronger, for two reasons:
1- Supporters of war in the United States and Israel have lost the elections, and they have lost them to those who do not strongly support the war in its current form and nature, even if they do not oppose it outright. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who spends his days and nights dreaming of the collapse of the Islamic Republic, is still in power, but after the formation of the new government, if he is not removed from the scene entirely, he will no longer hold monopoly power. It is a spectacular moment for the Islamic Republic. Likewise, the Republicans, especially Trump himself and his entourage, lost the midterm elections, an event that has sweetened Tehran’s mouth.
By this reckoning, Trump and Netanyahu perceive that the Islamic Republic is now drowning in joy, to the point that it presents itself as the “winner” and its rivals as the “losers.” This matter becomes more serious when the defeat of the far right in Israel and of the Republicans in the United States is assessed as a result of the attack on Iran. Now that the scope of Trump’s and Netanyahu’s “freedom of action” has been somewhat limited, it is obvious to both that the Islamic Republic will not back down, and it may well become more demanding of concessions compared to the period before the elections. When both think this way, the war option can prevail over the negotiation option, so that Tehran abandons its stubbornness and rids itself of the desire to extract concessions.
More importantly, Trump and Netanyahu feel defeated. They also feel humiliated and ignored by others. Therefore, if only to satisfy this feeling, they try to put the Islamic Republic in a new bind with a fresh military attack. This possibility is strengthened further when we consider that Trump and Netanyahu no longer have anything to lose. Netanyahu’s only chance is to be absorbed into a coalition government. Even if that happens, he will not have a free hand and will be bound by constraints. By contrast, Trump no longer faces a critical juncture that would force him to be accommodating toward Iran. The 2028 US election is a critical juncture, but for Trump it does not matter whether a Democrat or a Republican wins.
2- Once again, Israel’s role is not only important but decisive. The ruling faction in Israel sees Trump as a savior. In its view, Trump has toiled more than anyone for Israel’s survival. Yes, it is true that had Trump not been in office, the United States would have avoided entering a war against Iran. It is clear that Trump’s risk-taking was also due to the insistence of Netanyahu and the Israeli lobbies. Therefore, in the view of the far right in Israel, the end of Trump’s tenure will mean the end of serious American support for Israel. Hence, they try to go after Iran with America’s club for as long as Trump is in the White House.
On the other hand, the result of the US election has made Israelis deeply anxious. Their level of concern rises further when they consider Vance’s remarks about the discontent of part of American society over the way the war with Iran began and over Washington’s unconditional support for Tel Aviv. Yes, the outcome of the US election showed that Israel has lost a certain degree of its popularity in Western public opinion. If in the past unconditional support for Israel was a factor in winning American elections, it has now become a factor in failure. This is certainly a source of concern not only for Netanyahu but also for Eisenkot and others.
The far right in Israel has noticed the shift in Western public opinion to Israel’s detriment. In this faction’s view, if anyone other than Trump comes to power, Israel will be exposed to even greater disfavor. When the head of power in the United States, along with the country’s public opinion, is not inclined toward unquestioning support for Israel, whoever rules in Tel Aviv will undoubtedly become deeply worried. By this reckoning, Netanyahu’s effort is focused on making maximum use of the current minimal capacity, namely Trump’s remaining two years in the White House. Even if Netanyahu leaves the scene, his successor will attach importance to this aspiration, and his focus will likewise be on persuading Trump to attack the Islamic Republic, with the aim of overthrow or maximum weakening.
You can read the Persian version of this analysis here:
