The deadline for the voluntary repatriation of illegal refugees from Pakistan expired yesterday. Today, the government of Pakistan officially initiated a large-scale operation against illegal refugees. While in recent days, the Pakistani police sporadically arrested and forcibly deported Afghan refugees, this practice has now been formalized and expanded. The policy of expelling Afghan nationals from Pakistan has had a severe impact on the lives of millions of people. At present, numerous refugees who have been uprooted from their homes are facing dire displacement. On the other hand, among the refugees living illegally in Pakistan, some are at risk of losing their lives if the Taliban apprehend them, while others may endure torture and imprisonment. This mass deportation carries numerous consequences, with an immediate exacerbation of poverty and unemployment in Afghanistan being one of them.
For over four decades, Pakistan and Iran have extended their hospitality to millions of Afghan refugees. In many instances, such generosity has been particularly commendable, especially among the Pakistani people. The relationship between the Pakistani populace and Afghan nationals had been friendly until just a month or two ago, in stark contrast to what has transpired in Iran over the years. In Iran, it has become commonplace for some individuals to bestow negative and derogatory nicknames and titles upon Afghan refugees, even resorting to insults in their daily conversations. In addition to the ongoing government-driven deportations of Afghan refugees, some Iranians have also subjected Afghans to harassment. Iranian soldiers have been involved in acts of mistreatment, torture, physical abuse, and humiliation of refugees during their detention and forced removal.
However, in Pakistan, the situation was different until two months ago. Not only did the Pakistani police refrain from consistently arresting and deporting Afghan refugees and refugees, but the behavior of the country’s people had also been benevolent and commendable. These days, though, these same individuals have adopted a different stance toward Afghan refugees, neither harassing nor supporting them. This shift in behavior can be attributed to the continuous propaganda disseminated by the government of Pakistan and its state media. The actions of the Pakistani police have also come under scrutiny, as they have been improperly reported for physically assaulting and humiliating Afghan nationals during arrests. Reports suggest that, in some cases, the police have torn up their residency and legal documents, with bribes and coercion becoming a common practice. Nevertheless, the question arises: Why did this widespread expulsion from Pakistan commence?
There are multiple underlying factors contributing to this mass deportation, some of which are rooted in Afghanistan. Inside Afghanistan, there is a belief that this action is an attempt by the Taliban to alter the country’s demographic landscape by relocating refugees. In private political circles, there are allegations of collusion between the Taliban and the Pakistani government in planning the transfer of refugees and the displaced population to the surrounding areas of the Qosh Tepa and Qataghanzamin canals. To mitigate public reactions, Mullah Abdul Salam Hanafi, an Uzbek member of the Taliban from northern Afghanistan, has been appointed as the head of the commission for the management of returnees, and a ministry known as “Refugees and Returnees” is actively engaged in implementing these plans.
The actions of Pakistan also stem from the policies of its current government. The interim government of Pakistan is grappling with a multitude of problems that have overwhelmed its capacity to address them. There are certain issues that this government is reluctant to resolve, opting instead to manipulate public opinion. The expulsion of Afghan refugees from Pakistan has provided a pretext for such manipulation of public sentiment.
1- Terrorism: One of the most pressing issues in Pakistan is terrorism. Certain regions, both in the tribal areas and major cities, have become hotspots for extremist and takfiri groups. The proliferation of tens of thousands of religious schools operating outside government oversight has fostered the growth of extremism and fundamentalism within Pakistani society. These schools produce radical individuals who reject the legitimacy of the Pakistani government, often espousing beliefs in the establishment of a “Caliphate” or “Emirate.” Among the attendees of these schools are the offspring of undocumented Afghan refugees who have resided in Pakistan for decades. Poverty-stricken, these Afghan families resort to these religious schools, which offer education, sustenance, and lodging services. While the majority of these students come from impoverished backgrounds, a significant portion comprises Afghan refugees, constituting a substantial part of the graduates. This situation poses a grave threat to Pakistan’s national security. Ironically, the main adversary of the Pakistani government might not be external forces like the Indian government or separatists but rather these internally operating schools. The teachings in these institutions emphasize “Jihad” to establish a “Caliphate” or “Emirate,” providing recruitment grounds for terrorist organizations. Pakistan’s interim Prime Minister, Anwaar ul-Haq Kakar, mentioned in a media briefing that plans were underway to deport refugees lacking residency documents but residing in Pakistan for four decades. By expelling these refugees, religious schools in Pakistan would lose a significant portion of their student body. Over the past two years, Pakistan has witnessed an increase in terrorist attacks, which government officials often attribute to Afghan refugees. On one occasion, Pakistani authorities claimed that an attacker had entered Pakistan from Afghanistan with a health visa. The Pakistani government, unable to effectively counter these influential religious schools or promptly respond to terrorist attacks, has faced mounting criticism. To deflect these criticisms, the government has seized upon the issue of Afghan refugees. While this problem might be one of the reasons behind the massive deportation of refugees from Pakistan, it is not the primary concern for the interim government of Pakistan.
2- Economy: Another significant factor contributing to the deportation of Afghan refugees from Pakistan is the country’s economic challenges. The Pakistani government has come under severe scrutiny from its citizens due to persistent economic issues. Droughts and climate change have led to unseasonal rains and torrential floods, causing substantial damage to agriculture. Energy shortages have become so severe that electricity and gas supply interruptions occur for consecutive hours, even in major cities like Lahore and Islamabad. Pakistan lacks abundant mineral resources, and certain mines in Balochistan have become exceedingly unsafe, further weakening the country’s economy.
Moreover, the government has faced criticism for imposing additional charges to meet its expenses and budgetary needs. Citizens accuse the government of overcharging the underprivileged for essential commodities such as oil, electricity, and gas bills. While an average employee in Pakistan earns a monthly salary ranging from 20 to 30 thousand rupees, electricity bills for an average family often match this amount. This means that, at times, employees would need to allocate their entire monthly income to cover electricity costs, leaving them unable to afford other necessities. This situation has stirred public concern and led to protests. Three months ago, demonstrators took to the streets in various parts of Pakistan to protest against exorbitant electricity bills. Some even resorted to burning their electricity bills in protest. The government, struggling to meet its expenses in the current economic climate, is incapable of alleviating the burden faced by its people. Consequently, their protests cannot be placated with positive responses. To divert public attention, the government has chosen to address a secondary issue, thereby sidestepping the core problems afflicting the nation.
The government of Pakistan, along with some domestic media, has been promoting Afghan refugees in Pakistan as the cause of economic problems. Just two months ago, when this campaign had commenced, anti-Afghan refugee hashtags were trending daily in Pakistan on X/Twitter. The top hashtag was: “Deport Refugees, Save the Economy.” The government and some media pretend that the economic problems of this country will be addressed with the repatriation of Afghan nationals from Pakistan. However, the fact is that the Afghan refugee population pales in comparison to the large population of Pakistan, which can adversely affect its economic situation. According to the latest census of Pakistan, which was announced on August 5, 2023, the population of this country is 241.49 million people, with an annual growth of 2.55%. If, according to the claim of the Pakistani government, there are 1.7 million illegal refugees in this country, this number cannot have a serious impact on the economic situation of 242 million people; rather, some of them help the country’s economy.
3- Political Conflicts: Another significant factor behind the mass deportation of Afghan refugees from Pakistan is the complex web of political games and internal conflicts within the country. The interim government, which was supposed to hold national elections within its three-month tenure, has failed to do so. The delay in conducting elections carries various implications, with the most prominent one being the extension of the interim government’s duration, a preference championed by Kakar and his team. This delay has drawn negative reactions from several political parties, including Tehreek-e-Insaf, led by Imran Khan. The interim government of Pakistan has adeptly diverted public attention away from domestic political issues by initiating a large-scale deportation operation of Afghan refugees. By promoting the deportation of refugees, the interim government and other political entities find more room to maneuver.
This move has provided the interim government and other political parties with additional opportunities. Established parties like Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz have shown little concern over the election delay. The interim government, appointed by Shahbaz Sharif, brother of Nawaz Sharif and the Speaker of the Parliament of Pakistan, feels indebted to this party. Nawaz Sharif, who recently returned from exile, requires time to participate and compete in the upcoming elections. Although one of his significant opponents, Imran Khan is currently incarcerated, the political contest in this election is far from easy for the Sharif family. Consequently, the strategy of buying time and diverting public attention through the deportation of Afghan refugees serves as another motive for the actions of the interim government of Pakistan. This diversionary tactic allows them to navigate the intricate political landscape and consolidate their positions for the challenges that lie ahead.
