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Uzbekistan’s Billion-Dollar Deals with the Taliban: Strategic Ambitions or Security Concerns?

Amin Kawa Amin Kawa
22 August 2024 - Solar Hijri Date: 1403/06/01 [t_time:1724316061]
Uzbekistan’s Billion-Dollar Deals with the Taliban: Strategic Ambitions or Security Concerns?

FDPM_AFG/X

The Deputy Taliban Prime Minister for Economic Affairs has announced the signing of 35 agreements worth $2.5 billion during the visit of Uzbekistan’s Prime Minister to Kabul. According to the Taliban, 12 agreements, valued at $1.4 billion, focus on investments, while 23 agreements worth $1.1 billion pertain to trade. Previously, the Taliban’s Ministry of Commerce and Industry had reported the signing of five agreements with Uzbekistan in trade and investment. These agreements were signed between Uzbekistan and the Taliban’s Ministries of Finance, Agriculture, and Mines and Petroleum. 

However, some former officials and economic experts state that Uzbekistan’s stance remains indifferent to the type of government in Afghanistan. They argue that Uzbekistan views Afghanistan as the shortest route to global markets and a channel for selling its raw materials to South Asia. They also highlight that Uzbekistan is deeply concerned about the influence of terrorist groups from Afghanistan and is simultaneously seeking to play a significant regional role by engaging with the Taliban.

Following the fall of Afghanistan to the Taliban, Uzbekistan has maintained close relations with the group, with several high-ranking Uzbek officials visiting Afghanistan over the past three years. Most recently, on Saturday, August 17, 2024, Uzbek Prime Minister Abdulla Nigmatovich Aripov arrived in Kabul with a state delegation and was warmly received by Taliban officials.

The Deputy Taliban Prime Minister for Economic Affairs, in a statement, confirmed the signing of 35 agreements worth $2.5 billion with Uzbekistan. According to the statement, 12 agreements worth $1.4 billion in investments and 23 agreements worth $1.1 billion in trade were signed at the Presidential Palace of Afghanistan in the presence of Taliban Deputy Prime Minister Abdul Ghani Baradar and Uzbek Prime Minister Abdulla Nigmatovich Aripov.

Meanwhile, the Taliban’s Ministry of Commerce and Industry posted on its X (formerly Twitter) account, quoting the Uzbek Prime Minister, that Tashkent supports the Taliban in international forums. The ministry claimed that Aripov acknowledged the positive impact of regional countries’ engagement with the Taliban on Afghanistan’s progress.

Despite this, some former government officials and economic experts argue that Uzbekistan, in addition to seeing Afghanistan as the shortest route to South Asian and global markets, is highly concerned about securing its borders with Afghanistan. They believe that the Taliban’s control and the expansion of terrorist activities, especially from opposition armed groups, pose a serious threat to Tashkent. Therefore, Uzbekistan is striving to maintain close relations with the Taliban to secure its economic and security interests.

Rahmatullah Nabil, leader of the Afghanistan National Liberty Party and former head of the National Directorate of Security (NDS), told the Hasht-e Subh Daily that Uzbekistan is extremely worried about the security of its borders and regional stability. According to him, fostering close relations with the Taliban could help mitigate security threats such as the infiltration of terrorist groups and drug trafficking into Uzbekistan.

Nabil further stated that Uzbekistan seeks to expand its economic and trade relations with Afghanistan. In his view, Afghanistan, as a bridge between Central and South Asia, could provide new transit routes for trade and energy to Uzbekistan. He noted that building close ties with the Taliban would enhance bilateral trade, investment, and economic cooperation.

The former head of Afghanistan’s National Directorate of Security added that Uzbekistan is interested in Afghanistan’s natural resources and, by establishing closer relations with the Taliban, aims to create new opportunities to access these resources and expand extraction and industrial cooperation.

Nabil emphasized that Uzbekistan is also seeking to increase its influence in the region, and building close ties with the Taliban could help it achieve this goal, positioning the country as a key player in regional developments. He added, “Uzbekistan might attempt to take advantage of the diplomatic isolation faced by the Taliban and play a mediating role in international interactions with the Taliban government.”

Azarakhsh Hafizi, an economic expert, speaking with the Hasht-e Subh Daily, pointed out the significance of Afghanistan in Uzbekistan’s economic plans. He noted that governments without international legitimacy face difficulties in signing major contracts. According to Hafizi, the Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA) of the World Bank does not insure such investments, and institutions like commercial dispute courts in London, Frankfurt, and the Russell Commercial Court in France do not handle disputes involving parties from unrecognized governments.

Hafizi added that the agreements between Uzbekistan and the Taliban are bilateral and do not require access to global financial systems such as SWIFT. He further mentioned that for Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, Afghanistan’s geographic location is important, regardless of who governs the country. These nations aim to facilitate their trade routes without delay. Uzbekistan, he explained, seeks to extend its railway to Afghanistan’s northern, southern, and western borders, opening trade routes to the rest of the world.

Hafizi also noted that Kazakhstan had recently aligned with Uzbekistan in these matters, and Azerbaijan has shown interest as well. All these countries, regardless of the political-military changes in Afghanistan, are looking to collaborate with Kabul to break free from commercial isolation and gain access to international markets and South Asia.

He concluded that Uzbekistan had been trying to use Afghanistan as a corridor to South Asia and international markets for the past two decades. Given the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and the lengthy routes to global markets through Russia, Tashkent aims to use the shorter Afghan route to access international waters and sell its cotton to textile markets in India and Pakistan.

It is noteworthy that under the Republic’s government, when the Taliban were officially recognized as an “international terrorist group,” Uzbekistan hosted a Taliban delegation led by Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar on August 8, 2019, in Tashkent. At that time, Abdulaziz Kamilov, the foreign minister, and Ismatilla Ergashev, the president’s special representative for Afghanistan, met with the Taliban delegation, sparking strong criticism from Afghanistan’s previous government. Furthermore, Kamilov had also visited Kandahar in 1999 to meet with the Taliban’s former supreme leader, Mullah Mohammad Omar.

You can read the Persian version of this new here:

تمسخر طالبان به محرومیت زنان؛ نگاه این گروه به زنان «اهانت‌بار» است | روزنامه ۸صبح 

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