Several economic experts are warning about the continued closure of trade routes between Afghanistan and Pakistan, saying the situation has had wide-ranging negative consequences for markets across Afghanistan, severely undermining trade, economic stability, and the daily lives of ordinary people. The closure of border crossings, rooted in political and customs disputes, has driven up prices for essential goods, reduced commercial activity, and made living conditions increasingly difficult. The experts also note that while the Taliban have attempted to establish alternative trade routes, these options cannot fully substitute for trade with Pakistan, given the high transportation costs and the length of the alternative routes.
Shaker Yaqubi, an economic analyst, says the continued closure has had broad and damaging effects on markets across Afghanistan, particularly on prices for raw materials, fuel, and basic daily necessities, triggering market disruption and a broad rise in prices.
“Since a large portion of Afghanistan’s imports were channeled through Pakistani trade routes, the suspension of these routes has reduced the supply of goods, raised transportation costs, and ultimately driven prices up,” Mr. Yaqubi said. He noted that exporters have also been hard hit, as fresh fruits, vegetables, and other commodities could no longer reach Pakistani markets, inflicting heavy financial losses on traders and exporters alike.
“Although the Taliban have tried to establish alternative trade routes, these cannot fill the void left by trade with Pakistan,” he said. “Pakistan is one of Afghanistan’s largest export markets, and the losses resulting from this closure cannot easily be offset.”
Umair, another economic analyst, says the prolonged closure of the Torkham and Spin Boldak-Chaman border crossings represents one of the most serious economic crises facing both Afghanistan and Pakistan. He says the closure, driven by political and customs disagreements, has severely disrupted trade, destabilized markets, and damaged livelihoods across the country.
“The volume of bilateral trade has fallen from $2.46 billion in 2024 to approximately $1.77 billion in 2025, and further decline is likely if the situation persists,” he said. “Thousands of containers carrying food, raw materials, and commercial goods remain stranded at the borders and at Karachi port, causing enormous losses for traders. Afghanistan has increasingly turned to Chabahar port and Central Asian routes to reduce its dependence on Pakistan, but these alternatives cannot fully replace Pakistani trade given their higher costs and longer distances.”
He added that border closures have driven up prices for staples such as flour, cooking oil, rice, and fuel. Small domestic industries have also been hit by shortages of Pakistani raw materials. Farmers, meanwhile, have lost their primary export markets for fruits and vegetables, including grapes, pomegranates, eggplants, and onions, leaving much of their produce to spoil or sell at negligible prices.
“This crisis has directly struck at people’s livelihoods,” he said. “Rising prices and falling incomes have sharply eroded the purchasing power of ordinary people, while food insecurity has worsened. Drivers, daily wage workers, and customs employees in border areas have lost both their jobs and income. While traders from Afghanistan have managed to partially sustain markets through alternative routes, the true cost of this crisis falls on ordinary people, who face deeper poverty and higher prices for basic goods.”
Hamidullah Mufid, a political analyst, says the Taliban were trained and organized in Pakistan, and that the group was created to generate instability and advance Pakistani interests in the region. He believes the Taliban were initially established to disrupt Central Asian trade routes running toward Pakistan, and that after coming to power, Islamabad moved to further consolidate its support for the group.
“Pakistan remains the Taliban’s primary backer and plays a direct role in their organizational structure,” Mr. Mufid said. “At present, 14 Taliban ministers hold Pakistani citizenship. Pakistan’s military strikes inside Afghanistan have so far killed mostly civilians, and no senior Taliban figure has been killed in these attacks.” He also contends that the political tensions between the Taliban and Pakistan are largely superficial, with the two sides maintaining close relations and quiet coordination behind the scenes. According to Mufid, Pakistan is also lobbying at the United Nations (UN) to have Afghanistan’s seat transferred to the Taliban.
“Through its recent pressures and military strikes, Pakistan aims to keep the Taliban more dependent on and aligned with Islamabad,” he added. “Pakistan is seeking to entrench a client presence inside Afghanistan.”
Anwar, a Kabul resident, says poverty has driven his life into a dead end. “When I come home, my children rush toward me, hoping I have brought something,” he said, his voice heavy with pain. “But with what I earn, I cannot buy anything beyond dry bread and sugar.” He added that for years he has been unable to afford even a sack of flour or rice, and that he buys a few days’ worth of dry bread at five afghanis a piece to bring home with sugar.
“Eid, the upcoming religious holiday, is approaching, but I cannot even put together one decent meal for my children on the eve of the celebration,” Anwar said.
Golalai, another Kabul resident, also spoke of the hardship that has followed the closure of trade routes with Pakistan. “Since the routes closed, the prices of all food items have gone up,” she said. “Rice is now beyond the reach of many people. Prices were already high when the Taliban came to power, but since the borders closed, the situation has become far worse.” As the sole breadwinner of her household, she added, “I run the home and cover all expenses, because my husband is ill. On a monthly salary of 6,000 afghanis, meeting the basic needs of the family has become extremely difficult.”
Economic pressures have forced her to cut back on both food and clothing for her children. “My children want meat and rice, but I cannot afford to buy these things even once a month,” she said.
These accounts come as local sources told the Hasht-e Subh Daily last week that a young graduate of the Faculty of Engineering at Kabul University had set himself on fire in protest over unemployment and economic hardship.
Sources also indicated that economic conditions in Afghanistan have deteriorated sharply in recent months, with unemployment rising steeply among young people.
You can read the Persian version of this report here:
مسدود بودن گذرگاههای افغانستان و پاکستان؛ بحران اقتصادی عمیقتر میشود
