Pakistan is renowned for its founding and backing of the Taliban, having more sway over the group than other countries in the region and the West. This influence is derived from the leverage Pakistan has in its relationship with the Taliban. Many of the Taliban’s leaders and officials who were trained in Pakistan have homes and businesses there. In addition to the political, technical, and educational support they have received from the Pakistani army and intelligence for many years, the Taliban have strong ties with certain non-governmental organizations in Pakistan, including extremist parties, religious conservatives, and schools. These connections provide the Taliban with financial aid, weapons, and combat strength.
The United States and the former Afghan government sought out Pakistan to persuade the Taliban to join the peace process, which demonstrates the country’s influence over the Taliban. There are numerous other examples that demonstrate Pakistan’s influence on the Taliban. Former Afghan officials, including former President Hamid Karzai, have often stated that peace and an end to the war in Afghanistan are contingent upon Pakistan’s commitment: “The key to peace in Afghanistan lies in Pakistan, and the Taliban have no part in this process.” These and similar statements are indicative of Pakistan’s influence on the Taliban. Pakistan was one of the countries that supported the Taliban against the Mujahedeen government. Additionally, Pakistan was the first country to recognize the Taliban’s rule over Afghanistan, with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates following suit.
After the events of September 11th, Pakistan was faced with a difficult decision between siding with the United States or the Taliban. The United States was leading the anti-terrorism movement, with the primary objective of eliminating the Taliban and Al-Qaeda. Pakistan chose to prioritize its own survival and decided to join the anti-terrorism trend, as President George Bush had warned that Afghanistan would be sent back to the Stone Age if it stayed with the Taliban. Pakistan had not been showing any favor to the Taliban for a long time, and there were no reports of a renewed close relationship between the two.
The United States’ strong presence in Afghanistan, as well as their vehement opposition to the Taliban and Al-Qaeda, has kept Pakistan at a distance from the Taliban in this short time. Additionally, India’s active participation in the anti-terrorism movement led by the United States has put Pakistan’s peace in jeopardy, thus necessitating their close alignment with the anti-terrorism movement.
In early 2006, as the United States’ commitment to combating terrorism had weakened and signs of the Taliban’s resurgence were observed in some parts of Afghanistan, suspicions of Pakistan’s backing of the Taliban resurfaced. It was believed that the Taliban had sought refuge in Pakistan after the U.S. military attack on Afghanistan, and were regaining their strength to re-enter Afghanistan. This coincided with a shift in Pakistan’s foreign policy towards terrorism, and the country began to support the Taliban again. Despite this, Pakistan continued to present itself as a champion of the fight against terrorism and a victim of the frontline of the struggle, and was able to secure the support of Western countries on this basis.
Pakistan had friendly relations with both Western and regional countries. Any nation wishing to open a dialogue with the Taliban had to go through Pakistan, as if the path to peace and the end of the war in Afghanistan ran through the country. Even a powerful nation like the United States recognized the need for Pakistan’s cooperation in order to negotiate with the Taliban. The Doha talks, initiated by the United States and Qatar and resulting in the downfall of the previous Afghan government and the restoration of the Taliban, had Pakistan’s backing and approval. The return of the Taliban once again demonstrated Pakistan’s support for the group.
In the early days of the Taliban’s return to Kabul, Faiz Hameed, the head of Pakistan’s Inter-Service Intelligence (ISI), was spotted in one of the hotels in Kabul. It was reported that he had come with the intention of forming the Taliban cabinet and resolving any disputes in this regard. The presence of this influential Pakistani official suggests that the Taliban are under the control of Pakistan and that this group is still of great importance to the country.
Based on the aforementioned points, the question that arises is what Pakistan expects from the Taliban in exchange for their support. These expectations are not something novel; they are the same that Pakistan has been expecting Afghanistan’s governments to fulfill since its inception. Other governments in Afghanistan have failed to meet these expectations, but Pakistan believes that the Taliban is the only force that can do so.
- Abiding by the Orders
Pakistan has long sought to establish a government in Afghanistan that would be compliant with Islamabad’s wishes. Since its inception, Pakistan has adopted a strategy of “influence” towards Afghanistan, which has not only failed to resolve the issues, but has made them more complex. Pakistan is concerned about its own survival, feeling that it is threatened by its borders with two countries with which it has a dispute. This fear of survival has led to the military becoming the dominant force in Pakistan, with the army seen as the protector of the country, and the consequences of the military’s hegemony over politics being largely ignored.
Given that Pakistan perceives its survival to be at risk, it has adopted a revisionist stance in South Asia. For instance, it does not accept India’s role in determining the regional order and instead views overthrowing it as its primary objective. Additionally, Pakistan regards Afghanistan as a source of insecurity due to border disputes. As a result, the Pakistani authorities are attempting to install a government in Afghanistan that is compliant with Islamabad. From this perspective, the Pakistani military views the Taliban as a desirable option.
- Blocking India’s Influence in Afghanistan
Pakistan has long sought to limit India’s influence in Afghanistan, and its attempts to form a government in the country can be seen as part of this effort. Pakistan is wary of India and views it as an irreconcilable adversary. In South Asia, Central Asia, and even the South Caucasus, the two countries are in close competition. India’s presence in any nation is seen as a hindrance to Pakistan’s presence. The intense rivalry between India and Pakistan has led to a “zero-sum” game, where India’s gain is Pakistan’s absolute loss and vice versa.
The conflict between Pakistan and India is not only due to the border issue, but also to ideological differences. The separation of these two countries is based on ideological grounds, leading Pakistani authorities to believe that India cannot accept the existence of an Islamic Pakistan and is attempting to destroy it.
Pakistani authorities are attempting to avert the border dispute with India and Afghanistan from transforming these two countries into strategic partners against Pakistan. Pakistani officials believe that engaging in conflict with both countries simultaneously is neither advantageous nor prudent, prioritizing forming an alliance with one and competing with the other. Pakistan is endeavoring to form an alliance with Afghanistan so that it can impede India‘s influence in this country, or create a separation between these two countries.
Pakistan does not necessarily expect Afghanistan to have no relationship with India or to be in a state of perpetual conflict with the country. Rather, it desires that if Afghanistan must choose between India and Pakistan, it should choose Pakistan. One of the demands placed on the Taliban is that the level of relations with India should be adjusted in accordance with Pakistan‘s concerns and considerations; a request which the Taliban have apparently complied with in the past and present.
- Ending the Border Conflict
The long–standing border dispute between Afghanistan and Pakistan has been a major factor in keeping the relationship between the two countries cold. This conflict has its roots in the establishment of the country, and as long as it is not resolved, other areas of conflict will not only persist, but will also expand. Pakistan desires to install a government in Afghanistan that does not involve any border disputes with them. They view the Taliban as a desirable force in this regard, and their expectations from them can be summarized in three points: 1. officially ending the border conflict in favor of Pakistan; 2. remaining silent or indifferent; and 3. not claiming ownership of Pakistani land, not inciting Pashtun sentiment against Pakistan, and not advocating for unity between Pashtuns on both sides of the border. Afghanistan‘s rulers in the past and present have not only not accepted any of Pakistan‘s expectations to end the border conflict, but have also rebelled against them and provoked public opinion, a notable example being the strained relationship between the two countries during the reign of Sardar Mohammad Daoud Khan.
The Taliban‘s stance on the border dispute between the two countries is unclear. It does not seem that the Taliban can meet Pakistan‘s expectation of resolving the conflict, as doing so would likely provoke the ire of public opinion, particularly among the Pashtuns.
- Keeping the Way of Central Asia Open to Pakistan
Pakistan has an economic need for Central Asia, focusing on the electricity, oil, and gas of the region in order to meet its needs. The most direct route to Central Asia for Pakistan is through Afghanistan, and if Afghanistan were to close its borders to Pakistan, it would be denied access to the natural resources of Central Asia. Consequently, Pakistan desires a government in Afghanistan that will keep the country‘s entrance to Central Asia open. Three major projects have been planned to connect Central Asia to South Asia, but all have failed due to various factors, including the fall of the previous government and the return of the Taliban. For these projects to be successful, Afghanistan must become a safe and stable environment; otherwise, the implementation of these projects appears unlikely.
- Suppressing the Opposition Forces of Pakistan
Pakistan has faced opposition in Afghanistan from both those in power and those outside of it. The governments of Sardar Muhammad Daoud Khan, the leftists, the Mujahedeen, and the governments of Hamid Karzai and Mohammad Ashraf Ghani have all had strained relations with Pakistan. One of Pakistan‘s objectives has been to quell its opposition forces in Afghanistan. These forces can be divided into two groups: those who oppose Pakistan‘s interference in Afghanistan‘s internal affairs, and those who, while opposing Pakistan‘s intervention, also call for the unification of the Pashtuns on both sides of the border.
Pakistan is concerned with the suppression of both groups, and to reach this aim, it views the Taliban as a viable option. For instance, it is said that Mohammad Najibullah Ahmadzai, the former president of Afghanistan, was killed by the Taliban with the assistance of Pakistan. Additionally, the assassination of other figures in the past two decades has been linked to Pakistan and the Taliban in some way. Pakistani officials believe that the extent to which the opposition forces of this country are suppressed in Afghanistan, Islamabad can reach its objectives to the same degree. It appears that the Taliban have been successful in meeting Pakistan‘s expectation.
Pakistan‘s latest expectation from the Taliban is the suppression of Tehreek Taliban Pakistan (TTP), which is discussed in another article titled “Islamabad Meeting; What Will Beijing and Islamabad Say to the Taliban?”
