In the past week, the world witnessed a confrontation between the governments of Iran and Israel, escalating concerns significantly. Such an event could potentially lead to widespread regional conflict, affecting numerous countries and directly impacting the lives of their citizens. Failure to contain such events may escalate beyond the regional level, potentially involving major powers, thereby disrupting global equations. In such a scenario, global alignments would shift, alliances would rearrange, and the geopolitical landscape would be redrawn, even if the current borders of nations outwardly remain unchanged.
Calls for restraint and emphasis on avoiding escalating tensions, voiced by various countries worldwide, all reflect genuine concerns and underscore the increasingly fragile conditions, both within the tumultuous Middle East region and beyond. The fragility of situations is not uniform everywhere and is more pronounced in countries grappling with internal challenges. Afghanistan stands as one of the most vulnerable, where any significant regional tension could directly impact its conditions.
What renders Afghanistan more vulnerable to regional and global tensions and transformations than others are several factors. Firstly, it lacks a government emanating from the will of the people. When an armed group seizes control of a country and contemplates perpetuating its dominance by suppressing all parties, groups, institutions, and political and social movements, it lacks internal credibility and legitimacy, with no support from the people. Consequently, such a regime is viewed by other countries as lacking credibility and is recognized as an illegitimate regime, even if they interact with it out of necessity. Systems devoid of popular bases and international legitimacy are the most fragile, susceptible to being engulfed by the whirlwind of events from the East or West and drowning their own country and people in turmoil.
Although Iran’s missile attacks were directly aimed at Israel, they simultaneously demonstrated to regional countries the military and armament capabilities of this government on what scale they exist, and if serious military confrontations arise one day, how far they can go. Afghanistan, previously bordered by two nuclear powers, China and Pakistan, with a slight proximity to India’s nuclear power and a bit further, Russia’s nuclear power, now faces the challenge of dealing with Iran’s powerful missile system on another border, which poses even greater constraints if a confrontation arises. Being in such a position, for a country like Afghanistan, whose situation becomes more precarious with the cessation of external assistance, multiplies its challenges several times over.
While the Taliban outwardly strives to maintain good relations with its neighbors, internally it pursues a tumultuous path that is concerning both for the people of Afghanistan and regional countries. Its approach begins with denying the people and their will in determining their fate, continues with the suppression of various groups, and reaches its peak by disregarding international conventions on human rights, civil liberties, and girls’ education, and ignoring accepted norms in international relations. Hence, it cannot be deemed a legitimate government, and the world views it as an unconventional regime.
When a crisis-ridden country is governed by a regime with these characteristics, its transformation into a security black hole is entirely understandable and justifiable. Regional countries are compelled to contemplate various scenarios and consider different possibilities to safeguard their interests against this black hole and mitigate its dangers. The world patiently observes the events unfolding in Afghanistan, waiting to see whether an acceptable system for its people will emerge, allowing for the participation of all forces, or whether the current situation will further facilitate the rise of extremist groups and terrorist organizations.
Currently, extremist ideologies are being promoted and injected into the fabric of culture, education, and social life throughout Afghanistan. This narrowing of the field severely restricts any other ideological or intellectual movements, especially liberal and freedom-seeking ideas. The absence of alternative ideologies and social and cultural schemes to fill the void inadvertently paves the way for the dissemination of extremist ideologies. This, in turn, facilitates recruitment for ISIS, Hizb ut-Tahrir, and other radical groups, turning Afghanistan into a security black hole.
In times of regional crises intensifying and the potential for wider confrontations among regional powers emerging, the security black hole can rapidly become active and exacerbate the complexity of the situation. In such circumstances, each party seeks to exploit this security black hole to its advantage. For instance, Iranian officials praised the Taliban during tensions with Israel, seeking to align or at least prevent harm to themselves. Pakistan, while supporting the Taliban internationally, is also concerned about its unconventional support for regional militant groups, aiming to avoid greater challenges from this security black hole.
The current situation in Afghanistan benefits neither its people nor regional countries, nor does it contribute to long-term global security and stability. To end these concerns and establish normalcy in Afghanistan, there must be a government based on the will of the people. Such a government can uphold its international commitments and engage with others within accepted global norms. A pluralistic Afghanistan, free from extremism, governed by the rule of law, and possessing a conventional government system, benefits everyone; otherwise, it will be a security black hole fueling regional crises and escalating tensions.
You can read the Persian version of this editorial here:
