These days, harrowing scenes unfold daily at the Islam Qala–Dogharoun border crossing, images many have compared to the humanitarian tragedy in Gaza. And the pages of this unfolding tragedy show no sign of closing anytime soon. Instead, Iran appears intent on turning them faster, intensifying its mass deportation campaign day by day. Despite mounting calls from Taliban opponents, diplomatic institutions, civil society organizations, and prominent cultural and artistic figures in both Iran and Afghanistan to halt these ruthless expulsions, the Islamic Republic remains defiant, viewing escalation as serving its national interest.
Amid this crisis, the Taliban’s meaningful silence despite being the de facto rulers of Afghanistan raises urgent and troubling questions. By all accounts, the group should have issued a strong response, especially as it bears the responsibility for protecting and advocating for Afghan citizens abroad. To understand the Taliban’s indifference toward the large-scale expulsion of Afghan refugees, two key factors must be considered:
First
It is widely known that a significant number of former military personnel from the previous Afghan government now reside in Iran. Civil servants, journalists, women’s rights activists, and members of civil society have also sought refuge there. Additionally, many individuals who openly identify as Taliban opponents—at all levels—have taken shelter in Iran. For this reason, the Taliban regard Afghan refugees in Iran as a latent threat. If left unchecked, they believe, this community could evolve into an active resistance front against their regime. The Taliban have already demonstrated a clear tendency toward retribution. Their so-called “general amnesty” has largely served as a deceptive tool, designed to lure those fleeing into a false sense of security. There are even reports, both mysterious and overt, of deported individuals being killed, with the Taliban offering no explanation or accountability. Moreover, many Afghan refugees in Iran hail from ethnic or regional backgrounds that have little in common with the Taliban, further fueling the group’s apathy toward their fate. Notably, the Taliban have made some albeit limited efforts to address the plight of Afghan refugees deported from Pakistan. But when it comes to those expelled from Iran, their silence has been deafening.
In their view, the Taliban see two strategic advantages in Iran’s ongoing deportations:
1) Dissidents and disaffected Afghans will now fall under Taliban control, allowing the group to neutralize or gradually dismantle any potential resistance.
2) Former soldiers and individuals with combat experience, those trained to wield arms or hold the front lines, can now be arrested, imprisoned, or forcibly disappeared, as has already happened in numerous cases. Despite substantial evidence, the Taliban have consistently denied responsibility for these actions.
Second
Since the Taliban’s return to power, millions of Afghan citizens have fled the country, seeking refuge in both neighboring and distant nations. Among them, the millions who have settled in Iran and Pakistan now endure dire and degrading conditions. Yet despite the hardship, many still prefer life in exile over living under the Taliban regime, a reality that underscores the profound dissatisfaction of Afghans with the current political order. The depth of this discontent is so great that even those who are forcibly deported in the most brutal fashion attempt—often through both legal and illegal routes—to flee Afghanistan again and seek safety abroad. This persistent, desperate cycle is telling and should serve as a stark warning to all observers.
These waves of mass migration reveal a simple truth: a majority of Afghan citizens reject the Taliban’s governance and are willing to endure enormous risk and hardship just to find a moment of peace elsewhere. The Taliban, for their part, are well aware that rising levels of migration and displacement tarnish their international image. News of millions of Afghans fleeing their homeland—while the numbers continue to grow—is grating to the Taliban’s ears. By contrast, consider post-war Syria: after regime change, many displaced Syrians returned and contributed to rebuilding their nation. In Afghanistan, regime change has resulted not in repatriation but in mass flight, in tragic scenes of escape. The stark contrast between these two scenarios—widely discussed on social media—weighs heavily on the Taliban’s public image. Thus, they have come to view the forced repatriation of migrants as a political opportunity: in their eyes, such returns may help manufacture the illusion that Afghans are satisfied with Taliban rule and are voluntarily returning home.
The Taliban, however, show no concern for the welfare of the deported. Not once during these turbulent days have they called for a halt or even a slowdown in the mass deportations. Quite the contrary: they have offered congratulations to Iran for its “victory” over Israel, rather than addressing the humanitarian catastrophe unfolding on their border. The Taliban fail to provide basic services to those living inside Afghanistan, let alone to the hundreds of thousands of desperate returnees. They are fully aware that even if these deportees suffer or disappear, the victims will remain silent, and the world will interpret that silence as a sign of satisfaction with the regime. When citizens who remained in Afghanistan have chosen to look the other way in the face of nearly four years of Taliban repression, it is hardly surprising that the voiceless deportees can do little in their defense.
This silence and the Taliban’s seeming indifference to the mass expulsions suggest a far more troubling possibility: that they may be coordinating with Iran. Rather than being troubled, they may well be quietly pleased. It is not inconceivable that, behind closed doors, the Taliban have asked both Iran and Pakistan to seal their borders, thus eliminating escape routes and enabling them to claim that Afghans no longer wish to flee their country. The Taliban may also believe that just as the world has grown desensitized to the suffering in Gaza, the haunting scenes from the Islam Qala–Dogharoun border will soon fade from memory. In time, they expect that public attention will shift elsewhere, and the global community will forget the regime’s utter failure to respond to the plight of hundreds of thousands of forcibly returned migrants.
You can read the Persian version of this analysis here:
