In previous writings, the concept of the “Tree of Civilization” was discussed, a symbolic and academic framework that maps Afghanistan’s passage from primitiveness and chaos toward civilization. This tree has six parts: root, trunk, branch, leaf, fruit, and light; alongside it are the environmental winds that blow upon it. Our intention is to use this image not merely as a simple metaphor, but as a roadmap for Afghanistan’s fractured society, which has remained in limbo for decades.
Afghanistan’s economy has for years been trapped in a cycle of dependency and raw material exports instead of moving toward sustainable development. The tree of development can only become strong if its roots are firm, and the first of those roots is a productive economy. This article, based on a combination of field evidence and international experiences, examines the essential roots of such a productive economy.
Agriculture: From Traditional Production to Industrial Chains
According to World Bank statistics (2020), agriculture accounts for about 25 to 30 percent of Afghanistan’s GDP, and more than 60 percent of the population depends directly or indirectly on it. Despite this centrality, production is largely traditional, with post-harvest losses estimated at 30 to 40 percent.
This failure is not only technical but also institutional: the absence of an effective legal system for land ownership, the unregulated use of chemical fertilizers, and the lack of oversight institutions. India’s experience with the e-NAM program has shown that a combination of three key reforms, soil testing, the production of climate-resilient indigenous seeds, and investment in cold-chain infrastructure, can both raise productivity and reduce losses.
Flowing Waters and Water Resource Management: The Invisible Pillar of the Economy
Afghanistan is a mountainous country with four major river basins (Amu, Helmand, Harirod-Murghab, Kabul-Kunar). The annual capacity of surface water resources is estimated at 75 billion cubic meters, but less than one-third is used domestically, with the remainder flowing to neighboring states.
Agriculture, energy, and industry all depend on water. Yet the absence of a national water strategy has turned this natural blessing into a source of dependency and weakness. There are not enough storage dams; traditional irrigation systems waste large volumes; equitable distribution of water at both local and international levels is not guaranteed; and Afghanistan’s water diplomacy with its neighbors is weak.
Proper management of water could generate three fundamental transformations:
- Sustainable agriculture through drip and sprinkler irrigation, reducing waste and increasing yields.
- Domestic energy production via the development of small dams and mini-hydropower.
- Political and economic leverage through fair water-sharing agreements that protect national interests.
Neglecting water means neglecting the primary root of production; for this reason, water resource management must be considered one of the most central components of Afghanistan’s productive economy.
Energy: A Precondition for Sustainable Production
Afghanistan’s hydropower potential is estimated at more than 23,000 MW, yet actual production is less than 2,000 MW. Over 70 percent of electricity is imported from neighboring countries. This gap demonstrates that energy dependency is not merely a technical challenge but also a political vulnerability.
The experiences of countries like Nepal and Rwanda show that investment in decentralized mini-hydropower and solar energy can make rural areas self-reliant and reduce national dependency. In the short term, Afghanistan can strengthen resilience by promoting small solar systems for irrigation and cold storage. In the medium term, it can expand local mini-hydropower and wind projects, and in the long term, achieve a unified national grid and even electricity exports.
Industry: From Raw Exports to Value-Addition
Raw exports are one of the greatest obstacles to Afghanistan’s development. Ministry of Mines statistics (2019) indicate that more than 90 percent of the country’s marble is exported in raw form. In saffron, Afghanistan’s share of the global market is only 5 percent, while Iran, with advanced processing and packaging, holds over 80 percent.
Developing domestic processing industries can retain value addition within the country, generate employment, and enable the emergence of a middle class. However, the lack of industrial policy, customs corruption, unreliable energy supply, and the absence of well-equipped industrial parks are major obstacles in this path.
Distribution: The Missing Link in the Economy
High levels of post-harvest losses at borders or sudden price crashes due to checkpoint closures are not merely technical weaknesses; they stem from fragile trade diplomacy and the absence of durable agreements. World Bank research (2021) has shown that in Afghanistan, the farm-to-market price gap can reach up to 50 percent, whereas in regional countries it is less than 20 percent.
Reform of distribution must begin with the “first mile”: the creation of small solar-powered cold storages at the village level and local sorting centers. At the national level, a digital platform is needed to increase price transparency and connect farmers directly to markets. At the international level, transit agreements must be structured so that political changes do not disrupt their implementation.
Borders and Banking: Political Bottlenecks
Afghanistan’s trade is heavily dependent on a few limited border crossings, any of which can be closed due to political tensions. At the same time, the absence of credible international banking has meant that more than 80 percent of financial transactions are conducted through informal channels. This not only raises the cost of trade but also isolates Afghanistan from global financial networks and undermines its international credibility.
Resource Nationalization: Sovereignty versus Management
In Afghanistan, the concept of “nationalization” has often been misunderstood. Nationalization does not mean state monopoly, but rather national sovereignty over resources against unregulated exploitation and opaque contracts. Management of resources can be entrusted to the private sector, but the legal framework must ensure that extraction is carried out only with professional methods and accompanied by domestic processing.
Conclusion
Afghanistan’s productive economy requires simultaneous reforms in three spheres: technical, institutional, and political. Only by combining industrial agriculture, water management, domestic energy, processing industries, and an independent distribution network can the historic cycle of dependency be broken. The preconditions for this transformation are transparent governance of resources, banking reform, and the stabilization of transit agreements.
Afghanistan possesses land, water, sunlight, and a young population; what it lacks is institutional structure and effective management. If these roots are nourished today, tomorrow’s Afghanistan can be built upon prosperity and justice.
References
- Asian Development Bank (ADB). (2018). Afghanistan Energy Sector Assessment, Strategy, and Road Map. Manila: ADB.
- Da Afghanistan Breshna Sherkat (DABS). (2020). Annual Report 2020. Kabul: DABS.
- Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). (2019). Afghanistan Agricultural Development Review. Rome: FAO.
- International Monetary Fund (IMF). (2020). Islamic Republic of Afghanistan: 2020 Article IV Consultation – Press Release; Staff Report. Washington, DC: IMF.
- Ministry of Mines and Petroleum of Afghanistan. (2019). Annual Report on Mining Sector Development. Kabul: MoMP.
- The World Bank. (2020). Afghanistan Development Update: Surviving the Storm. Washington, DC: World Bank.
- The World Bank. (2021). Agricultural Value Chains in Fragile States: Case Study of Afghanistan. Washington, DC: World Bank.
- National Institution for Transforming India (NITI Aayog). (2019). Evaluation Study of e-NAM (National Agriculture Market). New Delhi: Government of India.
- Ethiopian Commodity Exchange (ECX). (2017). Annual Performance Report. Addis Ababa: ECX.
- United Nations Development Programme (UNDP). (2021). Afghanistan Human Development Report. New York: UNDP.
Note: The Tree of Civility framework, developed by Arian Nasiri, presents a holistic model of Afghanistan’s development, where the roots, trunk, branches, leaves, fruits, and guiding light together illustrate the country’s systemic transition from fragility and traditional practices toward sustainable civilization.
You can read other parts of this article here:
Part I: Introduction to the Tree of Civility: Afghanistan’s Unfinished Transition
