Taliban’s major obstacles
On August 15, 2023, two years completed of Taliban rule over Afghanistan, but they are facing certain issues. One of these issues is the continuation of the interim government struggling to replace it with a permanent government in Kabul. The second issue is that the Taliban were unable to secure recognition from the international community for their regime. The third one is the problems in the economy, and the people of Afghanistan are facing economic hardship. The fourth one is the continuation of women’s rights violations, restricting women and girls from work and education. Despite the pressure and lobbying from the international community, particularly the United States and the United Nations, the Taliban did not allow girls to go to school and women to go to work.
The Taliban’s Strengths
The Taliban have certain strengths. At an individual level, the Taliban were able to keep one person as the supreme leader. Although nobody knows who this person is, to keep their front united, the Taliban keep saying that they respect him and obey his leadership, orders, and decrees.
In terms of the national level, national politics in the country is in the hands of the Taliban, and there are no active opposition groups. After half a century of conflict in the country, the people of Afghanistan are tired of fighting. The political figures and leaders of the mujahedin who used to challenge the Taliban are mostly out of the country. Most of them are either too old to fight or have lost interest in politics and power struggles due to their age. The younger generation of the Taliban opposition lacks experience or is fragmented based on region, ethnicity, and languages. Concerning the political system, the Taliban have established a theocratic-totalitarian regime that takes orders from a single person and can, therefore, plan and apply their policies simply and efficiently. For that matter, there is no concern about opposing views delaying it, as happened in the republic period.
At the regional and international levels, neighboring countries are in a wait-and-watch mode, and the world’s great powers are pro-status quo in Afghanistan. Right now, in international politics, the hot issue is not Afghanistan and terrorism like in the late 20th and early 21st centuries. Rather, the major issue right now for major great powers like the US, Russia, and major European powers is the war in Ukraine. We shall pray for the war to end in Ukraine, and therefore, the attention will return to Afghanistan. For the time being, this would give the Taliban time to sustain their power in the country. Let us hope that Taiwan does not become another issue once the war ends in Ukraine. Otherwise, the attention will be diverted further away from Afghanistan.
Although individual, national, and, most importantly, international factors might add positive points for the Taliban to sustain their power and increase the duration of their rule, it does not mean the Taliban will stay in the country forever. It depends on major issues among international players, so probably if the Ukraine war ends, international players might pay attention to Afghanistan, and this might change the scenario for the Taliban. Also, if the Taliban face problems with the original and neighboring countries, the neighboring countries might help opposition groups, which could challenge the Taliban’s rule. In the past, they did have such confrontations; for example, they clashed with Iran over the border and water, and with Pakistan over providing sanctuary to Tahrik-E Taliban Pakistan (TTP).
Context reality
The 20 years of war have ended, and peace has returned, although the main reasons behind it were the Taliban themselves. The people are tired of war, and those with experience in fighting are already old. The new generation, mostly born after 2001, is not a generation of war, and most of them do not know how to handle guns. They went to school and attended university, experiencing the sweetness of an open society, democracy, freedom of thought, and expression. They want a society where they can express themselves in terms of thought, expression, and appearance. They want the Taliban to respect the will of the new generation and to reconcile with the people and society.
They are eager for the Taliban to recognize that society has changed in the last 20 years when they were fighting in the mountains. The people and the new generation expect the Taliban to acknowledge the mosaic feature of Afghan society, that Afghanistan is not just for Pashtuns but for other ethnic groups as well. Therefore, they should be included in government, administration, and, most importantly, policymaking. The modern history of Afghanistan bears witness that grabbing power by force is easy, but maintaining power by force is difficult.
The individuals, families, communities, and society views have undergone a significant transformation in the last 20 years concerning the status of women in society. No fathers want their daughters deprived of education, no brothers are afraid to see their sisters go to college, and no husbands welcome the Taliban’s policy of banning women from work.
Of course, there are people who think like the Taliban, but the will of the minority cannot be imposed on the majority of the people of Afghanistan. People in Afghanistan have adapted their lives to the logic of “live and let live” in the last 20 years and expect the Taliban to respect it.
It is said that humankind has a short memory, but the people of Afghanistan have the shortest. The war, conflicts, and crises have trained them to be this way. People may have lost one son but should prepare themselves to marry another son next year. They may have seen people burning in bomb explosions on their way to work but had to smile when their kid video called to see their parent. The people of Afghanistan are good at forgetting and forgiving, and the Taliban should see this as an opportunity to reconcile and prepare the grounds for mutual respects.
Hope for Change?
The Taliban are heavily influenced by Pashtunwali (a Pashtun code of conduct) that considers Pashtuns as the supreme race and women as the property of men, ignoring their rights. They are also greatly influenced by Deobandi, a radical version of political Islam that considers other religions heresy subject to eradication. These two factors hinder the Taliban from reconciling with Afghan society and limit their ability to establish relations with transnational actors. Pashtunwali beliefs lead the Taliban to extend the ban on education for girls and work for women, and their dogmatic interpretation of Islam makes them view the world based on the old Islamic interpretation of Darul Islam (world of Islam) and Darul Kufr (world of infidels), where they must forge relations with the former and fight and conquer the latter. Let us hope for the best, but it seems far from reach, at least for now.
About the Author: Sharif Hozoori is a research scholar at the South Asia Program, Einaudi Center for International Studies at Cornell University.
