Two days ago, Mullah Amir Khan Muttaqi, the Acting Minister of Foreign Affairs for the Taliban, traveled to Qatar to hold a meeting with American representatives in Doha. Although the meeting is reported to last for two days, no members from opposing factions of the Taliban have been invited to attend. Despite claims that some women aligned with the Taliban would be included in the Qatar meeting by their lobbyists, there has been no news confirming their presence. The American participants in this meeting include Thomas West, the U.S. Special Representative for Afghanistan, Rina Amiri, the U.S. Representative for Afghan Women’s Affairs, and their accompanying group. Muttaqi is leading the Taliban delegation in this meeting.
There is growing concern among people regarding the interactions of the international community, particularly the United States, which positions itself as a leader in defending freedom, democracy, and human rights. This concern arises from the lack of positive changes resulting from the international community’s tolerance and engagement with the Taliban over the past two years. Instead, it has only served to embolden the group to impose more restrictions. Surprisingly, the United Nations, which bears direct responsibility for safeguarding human rights and freedom, contributes to the funding of Taliban institutions and has failed to exert the necessary pressure on this group. Even when faced with the choice between remaining in Afghanistan under Taliban control or upholding its principles, the UN chose to stay in Afghanistan, disregarding its own principles and violating the values it was established to support and defend. This decision was made after the Taliban prohibited Afghan women from working in UN agencies, to which the UN ultimately acquiesced.
Similar retreats can also be observed in the stances of the respective countries. One such instance is the withdrawal of Rina Amiri. On July 2, 2022, she posted a tweet stating that she had led a delegation to engage with Taliban officials, including their acting foreign minister. However, after careful consideration, she decided against participating in the meeting. She further expressed that if there was a possibility of the Taliban taking meaningful actions to improve the human rights situation for women, she would be open to engaging with them. However, given that the Taliban has instead taken regressive measures such as prohibiting women from working in beauty salons and closing numerous hairdressing establishments, Amiri’s decision to meet with their officials is seen as a retreat by the U.S. government.
What impact will these withdrawals and increased meetings with the Taliban have? As we approach the two-year anniversary of Afghanistan’s fall to the Taliban, it is expected to see a rise in such meetings. The recent trip of British mullahs to Kabul was also facilitated by Taliban lobbies in the West, which adds significance to these efforts. Taliban lobbies in Qatar, regional countries, and Western countries have been attempting to address the issue of the Taliban’s international legitimacy. The concern among the people is that these talks and meetings will contribute to the Taliban gaining international legitimacy. However, it seems that these meetings, similar to previous ones, are not yielding the desired outcome for the Taliban.
The United States has announced that its representatives are engaging in discussions with the Taliban regarding security, drugs, and women’s rights. However, prior to their departure, the Taliban Acting Minister of Foreign Affairs informed the Taliban-controlled Radio and Television of Afghanistan (RTA) that he would be traveling to Qatar to negotiate with the United States representatives on various matters. These include the lifting of sanctions, removal of the leaders’ names from the blacklist, cessation of violations of Afghan airspace, and the release of Afghan foreign exchange reserves held by the Afghanistan Central Bank, also known as Da Afghanistan Bank. Bilal Karimi, the Taliban Spokesperson, also reiterated that these issues are of utmost importance to the Taliban in this dialogue. Muttaqi further mentioned that he intends to request increased interaction between the Americans and the Taliban, and he plans to meet with Qatari government officials to pursue this objective.
It seems unlikely that the Taliban will gain international legitimacy from the ongoing meeting in Doha or the four goals outlined by Muttaqi. The lifting of sanctions by the United States and the international community is not expected to happen in the near future. Recently, a group of fifteen members of the U.S. Congress has been attempting to pass a bill that would impose additional sanctions on the Taliban due to their human rights violations and severe restrictions on the education and employment of Afghan women. Even if this bill is not approved and sanctions are not escalated, the international community does not have any plans to lift the current sanctions.
The removal of Taliban leaders from the blacklist does not seem practical because these leaders are actively imposing more restrictions and committing severe human rights violations on a daily basis. Moreover, they are accused of committing new instances of war crimes and disregarding the international community’s standards, which align with the demands of the citizens. Consequently, the Taliban has not made any efforts to remove the names of its leaders from the blacklist.
The violation of the country’s airspace will continue to occur. The United States and the neighboring countries, who claim ownership over the Taliban, believe they have the right to be present in Afghanistan. The United States is closely monitoring the activities of these groups in Afghanistan due to the presence of Al-Qaeda and Islamic State-Khorasan (ISIS-K). Pakistan is concerned about the presence of Tehreek Taliban Pakistan (TTP), while Iran is concerned about ISIS-K. Since the ongoing negotiations in Doha cannot address America’s concerns regarding Al-Qaeda and ISIS-K, they will not be able to prevent the violation of the country’s airspace. The Taliban have not taken any actions to assure the United States in their fight against ISIS-K and continue to deny the presence of Al-Qaeda. Additionally, the violation of airspace is not solely carried out by the United States. Even if the United States were to cease such surveillance, other countries would still violate the country’s airspace. The absence of a legitimate government in the country is the cause of these issues. Until a legitimate government is established and represents the people, the neighboring countries and the region will not prioritize the demands of a terrorist group.
The fourth objective of the Taliban, as announced by Muttaqi, is to access the foreign currency reserves held by the Taliban Central Bank. However, it appears that this objective has not been accomplished. The U.S. Department of Treasury recently declared the conclusion of its investigation into the activities of the Central Bank of Afghanistan, which is under Taliban control. The bank has failed to meet Washington’s expectations in terms of returning $3.5 billion of its reserves from a secure storage facility in Switzerland. One of the requirements for the release of these funds is the replacement of Taliban members with three non-Taliban financial experts in the bank’s leadership, a condition that the Taliban have not fulfilled. Another condition is the commitment to combat money laundering.
The Taliban have not taken any specific action in relation to this matter, and it does not seem likely that they will do so. This is because individuals who depend on the illegal economy and illicit funds require the money laundering services provided by this institution. Another requirement is that the Taliban refrain from interfering and putting an end to political influence on this bank, which has also not been fulfilled. Additionally, the condition of combating terrorism financing is not feasible under the Taliban regime. This is primarily due to the fact that both the group and its allies are involved in acts of terrorism. The Taliban supports these groups, utilizing the central bank to provide them with financial support.
The goals set forth by the United States for the Doha meeting appear to be unattainable. One of America’s objectives is to ensure security, but there are two main issues that hinder this goal. Firstly, there is a discrepancy in the definition of security. While the Taliban view their current oppressive actions as security, the general population does not feel safe in terms of their lives, finances, intellect, and mental well-being. Just recently, on the Day of Ashura, the Taliban brutally attacked the people of Kabul using weapons and directly targeted civilians in Ghazni, resulting in the death of at least five individuals and numerous injuries. Shockingly, a video of a 10-year-old child’s death during the attack has been circulating on social media, causing widespread outrage. Therefore, when the Taliban claim that the current situation provides “security,” they are not making any efforts to change this situation, thus rendering America’s goal unattainable from this perspective. The second issue pertains to the desire to establish security against a terrorist group. This group originated through acts of violence, expanded through acts of killing, and attained power through acts of explosion. In essence, it appears illogical to anticipate that such a group would be capable of ensuring security, particularly when the leaders of this group are listed as terrorists by the United Nations.
The United States has announced its second goal as the fight against drugs. The Taliban is recognized as one of the primary drug dealers and traffickers globally. A significant number of the group’s leaders are involved in this illicit business. Haji Bashir Noorzai, notorious for being the father of the Afghan drug mafia, is revered as a spiritual leader by the Taliban. Additionally, the group heavily relies on drug trade for its survival. Recent reports revealed that the Taliban’s Minister of Defense, Mullah Mohammad Yaqoob Mujahid’s uncle, traveled from Pakistan to Uruzgan to collect opium taxes. Media and international organizations have also documented an increase in drug cultivation and production in Afghanistan under Taliban control. Consequently, a group that has operated a drug enterprise for two decades is unlikely to simply shut it down.
The third objective of the United States is to promote women’s rights, a cause that the Taliban refuses to accept as long as they remain in power. The United Nations has reported that this group has enforced gender apartheid in Afghanistan, affecting both of its emirates. The Taliban’s restrictions on women are unparalleled worldwide. After the fall of Kabul to the Taliban, when the international community strongly criticized their stance on women’s education and employment, Mullah Mohammad Ghous, the Taliban’s Foreign Minister, discussed the issue with a United Nations delegation. He straightforwardly stated that the Taliban is obligated to prevent women from working and studying in order to maintain the loyalty of their military personnel. Violating this commitment would result in soldiers abandoning their positions and returning to their villages.
Hence, we are compelled to maintain this policy as long as our adversaries remain present and we require fighters from villages and tribes to combat them. It is conceivable to alter this policy once the war concludes. Even at present, this group shares similar considerations, resulting in a gradual but consistent imposition of restrictions on women over the past two years. This group has consistently stated its refusal to yield to the demands of the international community, asserting that matters such as human rights, women’s education and employment, and freedoms are internal affairs in which others have no right to interfere. Prior to departing for Qatar, Mullah Muttaqi reiterated the futility of pressuring the Taliban, suggesting that the world should instead pursue engagement with this group. Consequently, none of America’s objectives appear attainable.
Do the Taliban Want International Legitimacy?
The straightforward response to this inquiry is negative. Despite the viewpoint of certain experts, the Taliban organization is not consistent and unified. Within this organization, numerous factions exist that are engaged in conflicts over various significant and minor matters. Their lack of harmony poses a hindrance to the group’s endeavors to attain international recognition.
However, Taliban Supreme Leader Mullah Hibatullah Akhundzada does not desire international legitimacy. He believes that the current situation is in his favor and therefore issues decrees that hinder the international recognition of the group. If the Taliban’s rule is acknowledged, Kabul and its institutions will gain significance, leading to official interactions with the international community. This would isolate the totalitarian leader of the Taliban and the city of Kandahar. Mullah Hibatullah, who is currently assembling a personal army of 40,000 fighters in Kandahar with the assistance of Iranian advisers, would not be able to maintain such an army if the government of the Taliban is recognized. Additionally, most of Afghanistan’s mines are currently controlled by individuals close to Mullah Hibatullah. If the government of the Taliban is recognized, the Ministry of Mines would be managed from Kabul, albeit with some flexibility.
The current situation is also advantageous for the world at large. The lack of legitimacy of the Taliban allows the United States and other countries concerned about terrorist groups to be present in the country without being held accountable. However, the presence of a legitimate government would create problems for these countries in the region. Conversely, the illegitimacy of the Taliban regime makes it costly for America’s rivals to interact with this group. If the sovereignty of the Taliban is recognized, countries like China, Russia, Uzbekistan, India, and Iran will have a significant presence in Afghanistan and will exploit the country’s economic resources. Washington does not desire for Afghanistan to fall into the hands of Russia, India, China, and Iran.
In summary, the Doha meeting will not yield significant results for either the United States or the Taliban. Engaging in discussions about the international recognition of the Taliban without first establishing domestic legitimacy is illogical and not in the best interests of the parties involved in the Doha dialogue. Both sides are currently benefiting from the present circumstances and are unlikely to pursue international legitimacy for the Taliban in the near future.
