There is no doubt that the Democrats’ victory in both houses of Congress is a cause for concern for the administration of Donald Trump. The enthusiastic and sizable Democratic presence in Congress could limit the scope of Trump’s “freedom of action” in foreign policy, though not equally on every issue. For example, it would be difficult to prevent Trump’s unconditional support for Israel, or to dissuade him from attacking the Islamic Republic of Iran again, since on that matter too, defending Israel’s survival is the best pretext. On other issues, including Ukraine, the situation is different, because Trump is less sensitive about them. The same applies to Venezuela, Cuba, and the way of dealing with the Europeans and with America’s longtime and newer allies. Meanwhile, there is another issue that has still not been closed: Afghanistan under Taliban control. The Afghanistan issue, and specifically the Taliban, falls among those on which Trump has no particular sensitivity. For this reason, it can be said that on issues other than Israel and Iran, the Democrats can narrow the scope of Trump’s freedom of action, and he too will remain loyal to legal and structural constraints up to a point.
On the Afghanistan issue, it is also better to keep our expectations limited, because we are not going to witness anything special. If the Taliban file was going to be reviewed and overhauled, it would logically have happened with Trump’s return to the White House, which has not occurred to this day. Trump, who even before the presidential election kept reproaching the Democrats for what he called the disgraceful withdrawal from Afghanistan, continued to do nothing but reproach them after returning to the White House, and stayed away from taking practical action. Meanwhile, the forces opposed to the Taliban had fixed their eyes on Trump’s return, because they believed that, as a serious critic of the withdrawal from Afghanistan, he might look for a path or an opening to help Afghanistan out of the impasse, which he has again not done up to this moment.
When we speak of a possible change in U.S. foreign policy toward Afghanistan, hope for the “exertion of pressure” on the Taliban is at the center of attention, not necessarily other matters. Those who think about the possibility of change are people who oppose the Taliban and spend their days and nights wishing for this group’s removal from the scene. Of course, for the Taliban, it makes little difference whether the Democrats or the Republicans are in office, because neither party will seek another attack on Afghanistan or an end to the life of the Taliban regime. But for the opponents of the Taliban, for whom being in power has turned into a source of longing, the smallest change in U.S. foreign policy often becomes a source of hope and sometimes a cause of concern.
Now, too, the Democrats’ domination of Congress does not necessarily mean a serious shift in U.S. foreign policy toward Afghanistan, and at best, the course that has been followed from mid-August 2021 until now will continue, a course in which the Taliban are neither supported nor removed. From another angle, however, if we look closely, the Republicans’ defeat in Congress could be a cause of joy for the Taliban, because the withdrawal from Afghanistan and the Taliban’s return to power is the legacy of the Democrats, and now that the owners of this legacy have taken the field, they will try to preserve it, which, if it does not require giving excessive weight to the Taliban, requires at the very least the continuation of the “engagement strategy.”
Trump has used the withdrawal from Afghanistan and the Taliban’s return against the Democrats, particularly Joe Biden, as much as he could. He presents what the Democrats count as an achievement as thoroughly disgraceful and harmful. Now the Democrats have no choice but to defend what they have done, an action that, knowingly or unknowingly, will benefit the Taliban. Here, one possibility cannot be ignored: a change in the Democrats’ approach to the Afghanistan issue in light of what the Taliban have done over the past five-plus years. If the Democrats’ perception has truly been adjusted, it will become evident as soon as they enter Congress. And since Trump is not inclined to engage with the Taliban, when this tendency is strengthened among the Democrats as well, a kind of alignment will emerge between the White House and Congress, which will necessitate avoiding giving weight to the Taliban.
But one point must not be overlooked: the Democrats’ apparent sensitivity toward democracy and human rights. The Taliban’s record in this regard is clearer than the sun: since the moment they returned to power, they have violated human rights as much as they could and have repeatedly spoken of the rejection of democracy with sarcasm. The Democrats in Congress will likely not remain silent on this matter, the consequence of which will be the gradual weakening of the engagement strategy with the Taliban. Although the Biden administration was accused of sending shipments of dollars to the Taliban regime, it still sharply criticized the group’s performance in the area of human rights, particularly women’s rights. It had even sanctioned ministers in the Taliban regime. In contrast, since the moment he returned to power, Trump has not uttered a single word about the dire state of human rights in Afghanistan. The members of his administration have done the same. Only the matter of freeing hostages is a priority for his administration, an area in which, apparently, it has been successful to a certain extent.
You can read the Persian version of this analysis here:
