According to media reports, following Pakistan’s airstrike on the city of Asadabad, the capital of Kunar province, and the Sarkano district of the province, dozens of people, including women and children, have been killed and injured. It has also been reported that mortar shells fired by Pakistan struck areas around Sayyid Jamaluddin University, causing fear and panic among students. This attack comes at a time when the Taliban and Pakistan recently met in Urumqi, China, and their talks were described as optimistic. That optimism has now been undermined by the attack on Kunar. In addition, Taliban officials in recent weeks have reduced their rhetoric against Pakistan and appear to be trying to end the conflict with the country without addressing its root cause: controlling the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and expelling the group’s fighters from Afghan territory. For instance, just two days ago, Amir Khan Muttaqi, the Taliban’s Foreign Minister, told members of the group’s administration in Kabul to avoid informal remarks driven by personal grievances against Pakistan and instead speak responsibly and carefully. Muttaqi urged Taliban officials not to involve immature thinking and personal grievances in major issues, which, in his view, would harm the country. Habibullah Agha, the Taliban’s Minister of Education, also acknowledged that Afghanistan cannot be defended with a “yellow barrel” and a “Kalashnikov” and that the use of modern technology is a necessity. Agha’s remarks also relate to the conflict between Pakistan and the Taliban and the group’s inability to confront that country. If one compares these recent statements with earlier positions, it becomes clear that the Taliban do not intend to continue confrontation with Pakistan, whether due to their weak offensive and defensive capabilities or other factors. In contrast, Pakistan does not appear willing to back down, at least for now, unless it receives significant concessions from the Taliban.
The question arises: why is Pakistan not backing down?
- Pakistan enjoys the support of the United States, a support that already existed but has increased in recent times, especially after Islamabad hosted talks between Tehran and Washington. When Pakistan has the backing of the world’s only global power and its opponent is a group like the Taliban, it naturally becomes more aggressive in targeting the group’s interests and Afghan territory. In conflicts between two states or between a state and a group, major powers typically intervene to prevent prolonged wars. However, in the Pakistan Taliban conflict, the United States, as the only global power, is not only unwilling to mediate but is instead standing with Islamabad against the ruling regime in Afghanistan. Similarly, China also appears to be more attentive to Pakistan’s concerns. It cannot be denied that most local, regional, and international conflicts are rooted in competing interests between major powers or between major and smaller actors.
- None of Pakistan’s attacks on Afghanistan has faced international condemnation. Only India has condemned them, and even that appears to stem from its long-standing rivalry with Pakistan rather than a belief that the attacks are inherently illegitimate or deserving of condemnation. Even the United Nations and its Security Council, the highest international authority, have remained silent and, at best, limited their response to calls for restraint from all sides. If even a few states were to condemn Pakistan’s actions, the country would likely reconsider its approach. The world’s silence is not necessarily the result of Pakistan’s strong diplomacy, but rather the lack of legitimacy of the Taliban at both national and international levels.
- Ongoing crises across the world have also provided Pakistan with an opportunity to treat Afghanistan as a theater of operations. The war in Ukraine remains intense and exhausting for Russia, the United States, and Europe. The conflict involving Iran has not ended and continues to contribute to a global energy crisis, forcing many Western countries to abandon previous priorities and focus on stabilizing energy markets. The war in Lebanon is also ongoing and expected to intensify further. In such circumstances, it is natural that the Afghanistan crisis is pushed into neglect, a situation that benefits Pakistan and allows it to carry out attacks on Afghanistan with little concern for international reaction. Interestingly, the Taliban also appear content with the creation of crises in other countries, as it allows them to exercise control more freely over women and men in the absence of international oversight.
- The weakness of the Taliban in defending Afghanistan’s territorial integrity has further emboldened Pakistan. The reality is that the Taliban, just as they have demonstrated incompetence in other areas, also lack any effective military capability that could deter external aggression. Habibullah Agha’s admission that a “yellow barrel” and a Kalashnikov are insufficient for defense confirms the argument that victory against a powerful aggressor cannot be achieved through slogans and fiery speeches alone. Since the Taliban possess no effective deterrent capability, each confrontation with Pakistan exposes their weaknesses further, enabling Islamabad to identify and exploit those vulnerabilities and intensify its attacks.
- The alignment of certain anti Taliban groups with Pakistan is another influential factor. It is no secret that any weakening of the Taliban through any means is welcomed by their opponents, even if it requires military action against Afghanistan. However, these opponents generally speak cautiously on the matter, both due to its sensitivity and the widespread perception that Afghanistan’s current situation is solely the result of Pakistan’s continued interference. As Pakistan becomes aware of the Taliban’s isolation and divisions within Afghanistan’s political forces, it perceives attacks on the country as low-cost. More importantly, the growing alienation of the population from the Taliban has further increased Islamabad’s appetite. It is a reality that people are largely disillusioned with the Taliban, and their current silence has underlying reasons that require separate analysis. So far, citizens have not shown significant reactions to Pakistan’s attacks, including those in the southern and southeastern regions often considered Taliban strongholds. This indicates that the Taliban have performed so poorly that even external attacks on Afghanistan cannot rally the population around the group’s flag. If Pakistan were to face a legitimate, strong government that emerged from the people’s vote, it would certainly exercise greater restraint.
You can read the Persian version of this analysis here:
