The recent agreement between India and the Taliban to form a joint working group in the agriculture and livestock sector could, from an economic perspective, create opportunities for technical cooperation between the two sides. However, the fundamental question is whether economic development in Afghanistan is possible without resolving the crisis of political legitimacy, the widespread violation of human rights, and the absence of an accountable government. The experience of the past four years suggests that the answer to this question is not particularly encouraging.
Afghanistan is a country where more than 60 percent of the population depends on agriculture and livestock farming, and this sector undoubtedly needs investment, modern technology, water resource management, and improved seeds. India also has considerable experience and capacity in this field. But the fundamental problem facing Afghanistan today is not merely a shortage of technology or capital; rather, it is a political structure that has seriously challenged the effective use of these capacities.
Over the past four years, the Taliban have consistently spoken of economic development, self-sufficiency, and attracting foreign investment, yet at the same time they have pursued policies that contradict the requirements of sustainable development. The ban on girls’ education, the exclusion of women from a large portion of the labor market, extensive restrictions on the media, the suppression of civil society, and the absence of political participation are not merely human rights issues; they also directly affect the country’s economic development capacity. How can a country that deprives half of its human capital of education and economic activity speak of sustainable development?
Under such circumstances, economic cooperation with the Taliban also carries the risk of normalizing a regime that still lacks domestic and international legitimacy. India has not yet formally recognized the Taliban, but expanding economic relations could be interpreted by the Taliban as a sign of the gradual acceptance of their regime at the regional level. This is happening even as much of the Taliban’s international isolation is the result of their own policies, particularly regarding women’s rights, civil liberties, and their failure to form an inclusive political system.
On the other hand, the investment environment in Afghanistan continues to face widespread uncertainty. The absence of the rule of law, the lack of an independent judiciary, the absence of transparency in contracts, restricted access to the international banking system, and the lack of accountability mechanisms are among the most significant factors that increase the risk of any foreign investment. Even if India brings substantial technology and capital into Afghanistan, there is no guarantee that these investments, in the absence of independent institutions and an accountable administrative system, will ultimately benefit the people of Afghanistan.
Another major challenge is security. Although the Taliban claim to provide security, the reality is that Afghanistan continues to face threats from armed groups, border tensions, the activity of terrorist networks, and political instability. In addition, growing disputes between the Taliban and Pakistan, along with increasingly complex regional rivalries, have heightened the sense of uncertainty surrounding any economic project. Economic development in an environment of fragile political stability will always risk stalling or failing.
From an economic standpoint, the question also arises as to whether the benefits of such cooperation will genuinely reach the people of Afghanistan or will mostly serve to consolidate the Taliban’s power structure. The experience of many countries under authoritarian rule has shown that in the absence of transparency, public oversight, and a free press, economic projects do not necessarily lead to poverty reduction and improved living standards; instead, they sometimes become tools for reinforcing the ruling political structures.
India, meanwhile, faces a serious dilemma of its own. On one hand, New Delhi views Afghanistan as part of the important geopolitical equations of South Asia and wishes to preserve its influence there. On the other hand, India has consistently presented itself as the world’s largest democracy, emphasizing values such as human rights, the rule of law, and democratic governance. Expanding cooperation with the Taliban without demanding political reforms and respect for citizens’ fundamental rights could seriously call these claims into question.
The reality is that economic development and political development cannot be separated from one another. Afghanistan’s agriculture will not grow without water, technology, and capital, but it will also not achieve sustainable development without freedom, education, political participation, accountable governance, and the rule of law. The experience of various countries shows that investment leads to economic growth only when it is accompanied by efficient institutions, a transparent legal system, and public trust.
More than anything, the people of Afghanistan need a government that is accountable to its citizens, that recognizes the fundamental rights of all citizens, particularly women and girls, and that creates the conditions for the genuine participation of all ethnic groups and political currents in governing the country. Without such transformations, economic agreements, however capable they may be of setting certain projects in motion in the short term, will not be able to resolve Afghanistan’s deep political and social crisis.
Therefore, India’s cooperation with the Taliban should not be evaluated solely through the lens of economic interests. This cooperation is a test for India’s foreign policy and, at the same time, a test for the Taliban as well. If these relations serve only to strengthen the Taliban’s political standing without bringing about any change in the group’s behavior and policies, they will not only fail to contribute to Afghanistan’s development but will also increase the risk of legitimizing a structure that is itself responsible for much of the country’s current crisis. Afghanistan’s real development does not begin on the farm; it begins with good governance, respect for citizens’ rights, and the participation of all the people in determining the country’s future.
You can read the Persian version of this analysis article here:
روابط هند و طالبان؛ آیا همکاریهای اقتصادی میتواند بر چالشهای سیاسی و امنیتی غلبه کند؟
