In May 2021, hoping to participate in potential negotiations between the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan and the Taliban, which were supposed to take place in Istanbul, I traveled to that city. The initial talks were postponed due to Ramadan, and then they used the excuse of Eid, claiming that holding the talks was impossible. However, the reality was that the Qataris and Americans did not want Türkiye to host the talks between the Afghan government and the Taliban. As a result, they presented unnecessary excuses to prevent the talks from taking place in Türkiye. After a week in Istanbul, I returned to Kabul to spend Eid with my father, mother, friends, relatives, and colleagues. This was after nearly two years during which I had been unable to return to my beloved Kabul due to the cancer that had afflicted me and kept me occupied with treatment. Eid passed joyfully, and my family and friends showed immense kindness toward me. They were especially pleased that I had managed to defeat cancer, with my mother being the happiest of all after enduring the many difficulties throughout my illness.
Early Signs of the Collapse
After two years away from Kabul, on the first day of my return, I noticed many signs of panic, lack of planning, and fear of collapse among both the general public and government officials, civil society activists, and the media. These signs were evident in people’s conversations and daily behaviors. Everyone was worried about an uncertain future and the possibility of the country falling into the hands of the Taliban, and there was no clear plan to counter this situation.
Iftar with Hamdullah Mohib
One evening during the final days of Ramadan, Hamdullah Mohib, Ashraf Ghani’s National Security Advisor and one of his most trusted officials, invited several senior media executives for an Iftar dinner. The best senior executives of Afghanistan’s free and independent media were present at that gathering. During the event, we expressed our concerns to Mohib about the possibility of a collapse and the disintegration of the state. We pointed out that without American air, logistical, and technical support, the Afghan army’s combat capability would severely diminish, leading to increased casualties. We also emphasized the need to quickly sign independent contracts with reputable international companies to prevent a gap in air support, particularly in the maintenance and upkeep of the Afghan army’s warplanes. Additionally, we stressed that if logistical support was not provided to the soldiers on the battlefield, they would not be able to withstand the Taliban’s onslaught.
After listening to our concerns, Mr. Mohib confidently assured us that our worries were baseless, as they had already discussed the matter with several companies in the United Arab Emirates, who were supposed to fill the void left by the departing American forces. Later, I learned that the contracts with these Emirati companies were arranged so that Mr. Mohib and his associates could take a share of the funds intended for the army. They had contracted with companies that only had a business license in the UAE and nothing more.
Extremely Fragile Security Situation
Given the extremely fragile security situation and the looming threat of the government’s collapse, as well as concerns for my safety, I was forced to stay in Kabul for an extended period. Every day, I witnessed the worsening situation, and my concerns about the country’s future and my safety grew. In the third week of June, after realizing that staying in Kabul was no longer viable, I decided to fly back to Istanbul with Turkish Airlines and then return to my home in Canada.
Background of the Collapse
The collapse of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan was not an incident but a process rooted in multiple internal factors, including the belief that the Americans would remain in Afghanistan permanently and an over-reliance on foreigners for everything. Widespread financial and political corruption was also one of the main factors in this collapse. The creation of a so-called VIP culture had mentally and emotionally preoccupied all government officials more with how many armored vehicles they had, how many soldiers from the army were protecting them, or how large their motorcade was than with their actual work.
While I was enjoying the company of my family and friends in Kabul, the situation in the country rapidly deteriorated. The withdrawal of American and NATO forces from Afghanistan, announced in April 2021 by President Joe Biden, was a turning point in the security situation in Afghanistan. This withdrawal, which was scheduled to be completed by September 11, 2021, created a security vacuum that the Taliban quickly exploited.
Rapid Taliban Advance
The Taliban took advantage of this opportunity by intensifying their attacks across the country. They quickly gained control of many rural areas and, in a short time, managed to capture key cities as well. Despite significant efforts, Afghan security forces were unable to resist the Taliban’s rapid advance. Widespread corruption in the government and security institutions, a lack of equipment, and inadequate international support were the main reasons for the government’s forces’ weakness.
The Fall of Kabul
Finally, on August 15, 2021, Kabul fell to the Taliban without serious resistance. President Ashraf Ghani fled the country, an act that symbolized the collapse of the Afghan government. The fall of Kabul to the Taliban shocked not only the people of Afghanistan but also the international community. In panic and despair, many people rushed to Kabul Airport to flee the country.
Human Impact
The fall of Afghanistan to the Taliban had wide-reaching human consequences. Many people were forced to leave their homes, either due to fear of Taliban retribution or because of violations of human rights and civil liberties. Women and girls, who had been denied education and work during the Taliban’s rule in the 1990s, once again faced severe restrictions. Many human rights activists, journalists, and individuals collaborating with international forces found themselves at risk.
International Reaction
The international community responded to the fall of Afghanistan in various ways. Some countries attempted to engage with the Taliban and sent humanitarian aid to Afghanistan to prevent a major humanitarian crisis. However, many countries were concerned that the Taliban would continue to support international terrorist groups and disregard human rights.
Uncertain Future
The future of Afghanistan after the fall of the Taliban remains uncertain. The Taliban had promised that they had changed and would respect human rights and civil liberties. However, their actions during the first months of their rule indicated the continuation of some of their repressive policies from the past. The Afghan people face significant challenges and require extensive international support to rebuild their country and protect their rights and freedoms.
Conclusion
The fall of Afghanistan to the Taliban was the result of a combination of internal and external factors. Widespread corruption, weak government institutions, a lack of international support, and the withdrawal of American and NATO forces all contributed to this disaster. As Afghanistan enters a new chapter in its history, the country’s future largely depends on the international community’s response and support.
You can read the Persian version of this analysis here:
