Finally, the wait is over, and Israel’s military has launched an attack on several military targets within the territory of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Many believe that the attack was not of the magnitude repeatedly hinted at by Israeli officials over the past 25 days. For instance, Yoav Gallant, Israel’s Defense Minister, had stated that “the world will understand Israel’s power after the attack on Iran.” However, the exact scale and nature of the attack and the resulting damage have not yet been revealed. So far, as reported by both Iranian and non-Iranian media, the damage appears to be minimal and not in line with the level of promotion it received. Additionally, reports from Israeli newspapers indicate a certain level of internal dissatisfaction with how the attack was carried out. Avigdor Lieberman, leader of the “Israel Our Home” party and a member of the secular far-right, described the attack last night as “performative and propagandistic” and demanded that real costs be imposed on Iran.
Now, the question that needs answering is: has the conflict ended, or will it escalate?
1) The fact that the attack did not leave significant damage could encourage Tehran to avoid launching a counter-operation. So far, in the statements issued by Iran, particularly its Ministry of Foreign Affairs, there is no clear indication of an imminent retaliation against Israel. Additionally, Israeli and Western media have claimed that Tel Aviv had given prior notice to Iran through a third party to prevent retaliation. It is even claimed that discussions were held about the timing of the attack and the targets. However, neither Iranian nor Israeli officials have confirmed or denied these claims so far. The Americans also stated that Israel had informed them in advance about the timing of the attack. These points suggest that diplomacy is at work, preventing tensions from escalating beyond the current threshold.
2) Even if the Islamic Republic intends to retaliate, it is unlikely to do so immediately. It is clear that Tehran, more than Tel Aviv, is trying to avoid escalating tensions, lest it falls into the trap of war. The claim that Israel seeks to drag the Islamic Republic into a war of attrition finds support in Iran, particularly among reformists. Therefore, Tehran may respond to the Israeli attack at a time it deems appropriate. Until then, diplomatic efforts may dissuade Tehran from responding or at least reduce the scale of its potential retaliation — precisely the approach taken by U.S. President Joe Biden with Israel. The prevailing belief is that if it were not for Biden’s efforts, Israel’s attack might have been more extensive than what occurred last night. For this reason, many attribute Tel Aviv’s avoidance of striking Iran’s nuclear and oil facilities to Biden’s discussions with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
For Iran, supporting Hezbollah and working to restore its cohesion seems to be of greater importance than retaliating against Israel. Hezbollah has not been in a strong position for some time, even though its militants appear to be fighting the Israeli army tenaciously. Tehran’s best interest lies in maintaining Hezbollah’s cohesion so that it remains a bulwark against Israel. In a situation where Hezbollah is no longer as strong as it once was, and if Iran were to engage in confrontation with Israel, it is clear that the Islamic Republic would stand to gain little if anything at all. Therefore, the end of this conflict could pave the way for Hezbollah’s regrouping and renewed strength.
3) The U.S. elections could also act as a deterrent. These elections are as crucial and consequential for the American Democrats as they are important for Iran. The Democrats and Tehran converge on one point: the necessity of preventing Donald Trump, the Republican nominee, from winning. Trump’s victory would not be good news for the Islamic Republic, as it holds no favorable memories of him. Therefore, the escalation of the crisis, especially with less than ten days remaining until the U.S. elections, could play to Trump’s advantage. As a result, Iran might consider this factor and rethink any potential attacks on Israel.
Given the points mentioned above, the likelihood of Iran responding to Israel is not very high, and one could argue that the conflict has ended. However, both sides will likely not hesitate to harm each other’s interests indirectly at other times.
You can read the Persian version of this analysis here:
