A simplistic belief exists among the people of Afghanistan that the Taliban will not last long and will soon be gone. A kind of naive optimism convinces people that the Taliban regime is destined to collapse and that, subsequently, everything will be just fine. This hope among the people does not stem from an expert analysis of the current situation in Afghanistan but is born out of superficial and common optimism typical in religious societies that say, “Things won’t stay like this; God is merciful.” This attitude towards the harsh reality does not indicate the power of the people; rather, it signifies their helplessness and desperation. When people cannot do anything to end the catastrophe, they resort to religious optimism and wait for saviors to come and free them from the clutches of Taliban terror and barbarism. From corrupt ethnic politicians and pretentious ivory tower intellectuals to NGO-influenced leftists and ordinary citizens, everyone expects the “international community” to once again favor Afghanistan as it did before and return the country to a normal path. But does the international community have the desire and willingness to re-enter the quagmire of Afghanistan?
Currently, not only is there no positive signal of international military intervention, but on the contrary, the world wants to engage more with the Taliban and present this group as its partner in the “fight against terrorism.” Some countries have gone so far in this direction that they even want to remove the Taliban from the list of terrorist groups. The world no longer has any interest in “nation-building” and fighting to institutionalize democracy in Afghanistan. Instead, it wants to engage with a force that can at least establish some order in this country and prevent further collapse. The crisis in Afghanistan is so chronic and deep-rooted that even the world’s major powers no longer have any interest in solving it and merely want to create a semblance of order to reduce their headaches. For a long time, realism has replaced political idealism, and major powers are even sacrificing their long-term goals for short-term interests. They have realized well that entering the “graveyard of empires” might be by their own choice, but exiting this trap will not be according to their wishes. Any superpower that has once entered this quagmire and barely saved itself has not again been enthusiastic about military intervention.
Apart from external factors, the anti-Taliban forces are so mired in political and organizational chaos that many are convinced that the Taliban have no alternative. The corrupt, exiled politicians are more eagerly awaiting a miracle from the “international community” than the Afghan people themselves and occasionally directly or indirectly appeal to it, asking it to do something. With the slightest positive signal from foreigners, they lose their composure and rush to meet with special representatives of various countries, hoping not to miss out on any potential favors. These exiled politicians have not yet abandoned their dreams of returning to Afghanistan; however, they do not intend to take action themselves to make this dream a reality. They believe that if the “international community” ever decides to overthrow the Taliban, it will need them. Therefore, the people and their political leaders share many similar characteristics, one of which is an excessive reliance on powerful external factors.
In other words, both the people and their leaders are looking to saviors; the people expect their leaders or external powers to take action, while the leaders are waiting for the “international community” to step in. In such a situation, can we still hope for the collapse of the Taliban? If this group does not self-destruct from within – currently, despite all the internal differences among the Taliban, they remain united, and the recent “reform meeting” led by Mullah Haibatullah in Kandahar seems to have been effective in temporarily burying internal conflicts – and if no foreign power steps in to overthrow the Taliban, there is no other threat to this group. Neither do the people have the motivation or interest to start a widespread uprising against the Taliban, nor do the exiled opposition have the capacity to confront this group on their own.
However, if the people and their leaders do not wait for external saviors and instead rely on their capacity to engage in a sustained and strategic struggle – not a hasty, temporary, and short-term fight against the Taliban – then victory is possible. Therefore, unless the people make a concerted effort, the Taliban are not going anywhere. They have come to stay indefinitely and even prepare the ground for extending their rule beyond Afghanistan’s borders through the implementation of the global jihad project. The Taliban have not fought all this time to hand over power to others and retreat into isolation easily. Instead of wishful thinking childish religious optimism, and reliance on external powers, we must start now to turn scattered, temporary, and fleeting fights against the Taliban into a comprehensive, attritional, and strategic war. Only in this way can we hope for a Taliban-free Afghanistan in the future. Then, we have the right to be optimistic, for this optimism will be of a different kind and will have little to do with the current superficial and common beliefs.
You can read the Persian version of this analysis here:
